231–240 of 568 posts
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Actually then CFR would probably be like 5% if medical services would be overcome. So more like 11m excess deaths.
I picked a lower number to get less quibbles from any doubters. But yeah, bringing CFR from 5% to 2% at 60% infection you can justify actions that otherwise seem nuts.
I’m probably in the minority but I lean towards the UK model. My suspicion is that the mortality rate is lower due to inadequate testing. Call me a cynic but after 9/11 I’m weary of temporary measures that become permanent in one way or another.
I'm going to go ahead and call you a cynic here. Do you really think there's any way that the State of Washington will be permanently banning events over 50 people? Do you really think there's any way that the State of Washington will be permanently preventing the operation of bars, dine-in restaurants, and entertainment facilities? I'm generally pretty skeptical of creeping government powers myself, but this just...…
IMO the only question now is how long it takes the rest of the country to follow suite. Here in NC our governor announced the closing of all public schools on Friday, but I've heard from several friends that in my city (Raleigh) the downtown bars and restaurants were pretty much at normal capacity this weekend. I don't think the general public is going to truly take this seriously until they're told that they have to…
Just look at some of the comments in this very thread, calling for us to adopt the "UK model". It's clear that some people DO NOT see this as a threat worth worrying about. Shame on them, I say. They're probably the same idiots that show up to work sick, and cough without covering their mouth around others. A lot of people who apparently don't believe in biology, and don't have the ability to see past their own 2 fee…
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Lives and dollars are not totally different things. How many lives will be ruined by total financial destruction? How many will commit suicide in the months and years after due to financial issues?
Lives and money are not the same thing. Hard stop. I understand your point, but I just disagree with the expected outcomes here. Realistically how much would it cost to bail out these businesses and provide a safety net to people? I imagine the numbers are less than we'd first think. It's a choice. It's not inevitable.
My Daughter was working as a temp between jobs and the work has now been stopped, she had two second interviews planned in Sydney this week now both positions have been retracted and nobody hiring or interviewing, she has about 7 weeks of cash savings and 4 months lease on a rental. Oh and no unemployment benefit or subsidies as she is New Zealander working in Australia. Young People at the lowest risk from this viru…
What is UK's answer to this problem?
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They announced $50 billion in SBA loans (up to $2 million per business) for small and medium businesses. Interest rate is 3.75%. These kind of funds will help a lot of businesses float through: https://www.sba.gov/about-sba/sba-newsroom/press-releases-me...
Loans? Not grants? While large businesses get quantitative easing, bailouts of airline industries, etc? Sounds about right. Also from the announcement, lol: "businesses with credit available elsewhere are not eligible" Ah, so if you can get credit elsewhere, you can't get our help, even if it's needed.
This is just tip of the iceberg, now that this is declared national emergency, FEMA money and other sources are unlocked. Meanwhile, it's just the first week of things heating up to the point of these shut downs. Give the government time.
This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…
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Loans? Not grants? While large businesses get quantitative easing, bailouts of airline industries, etc? Sounds about right. Also from the announcement, lol: "businesses with credit available elsewhere are not eligible" Ah, so if you can get credit elsewhere, you can't get our help, even if it's needed.
I haven't read about the QE4 plans. How will it work? This is just tip of the iceberg, now that this is declared national emergency, FEMA money and other sources are unlocked. Meanwhile, it's just the first week of things heating up to the point of these shut downs. Give the government time.
They have time enough to shut down businesses in a snap of their fingers. I don't think it's too much to expect at least a basic outline of a remuneration plan at the same time. I do not see why we should give them time on one issue but not the other.
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Right. What matters is that they’re the same set of cooks, so if an infection spreads the number of people it can spread to is limited.
No, it's not the same set, and it's not limited. Employees have different shifts, days off, vacation, callouts, etc. They all still go home after work and interact with their family. And the working conditions essentially guarantee that if one person is carrying the virus, everyone in the kitchen will get it, which is certainly not true in front-of-house. This is a government policy that essentially tells low-paid li…
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There may be no underlying financial issue, but percentage wise we're going down much faster. September to Oct 2008 was a 9.5% drop (steepest month drop). Past 30 days was a 20.5% drop. Tracking s&p 500.
The stock market is not the economy.
In my personal view 'The Market's purely reflect consumer confidence. They appear divorced from actual reality, aside from how that affects the mindset of easily panicked lemmings.