431–440 of 740 posts
"Flattening the Curve" is a deadly delusion https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea... "Flatten the curve" scenario requires r0 to between 1.0 and a small number above 1.0, like 1.1. In other words, it's not happening, you either contain the virus or let it explode.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, hospital-level serious for 20% of cases. 5-10% require ICU care. The ~2% fatality rate is with ICU support and ventilation. When the hospitals get overrun it increases to ~7%, which is what we saw in Wuhan and now Italy. Your chance of dying if you do need hospitalization but don't get it appears to be > 50%. Death rates by age range also assume ICU care. It's virtually unheard of for healthy middle-aged people…
It’s far from clear how accurate those numbers for Italy and China are. China essentially gave up on testing the general population in Wuhan and their numbers mostly represent the most serious cases. Italy’s infections seem to be mostly centered around the elderly with 40% of infections in the 70+ age range despite 65+ year olds only representing 21.53% of their population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavi…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You said, "A bat infecting a pig could easily happen in Italy". How is a careless Italian butcher in any way comparable to a seething, filthy wet market where live pigs and bats are crammed into stacked cages? How much bat do you think they eat in Italy? Do Dutch butchers serve bat or pangolin or dog meat, or keep wild birds in cages on top of ferrets, which are good animal…
The world is a lot larger than Europe, and there are documented cases of Zoonosis from all over the planet (in fact, a good 2/3rds or so of our pathogens are of Zoonotic origin). Also, this particular virus likely did not cross over in a wet market, there is no evidence for that. As for how much better the EU is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_Europe Is a good example of what can happen here.
> Also, this particular virus likely did not cross over in a wet market, there is no evidence for that.
If you're relying on a lack of absolute physical proof to support your argument, then I guess you win. Otherwise, there absolutely is evidence that this virus jumped from an animal reservoir local to Hubei, and that the wet markets are perfectly designed to facilitate that process. You're being a bit slippery on this point, but it really isn't the least bit controversial among virologists or epidemiologists.
American-style factory farming of cattle, swine, and poultry, where uncountable animals are crammed together and kept alive with antibiotics, is maybe a valid comparison. America is creating it's own epidemic of antibiotic resistance with the help of these farms (and so is China for that matter). But that does not -- or at least logically should not -- assuage anyone's discomfort with the health hazards of wet markets.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can we make sure we’re reading this kind of information when given by people who actually study and work in a relevant field? Now more than ever we should look at the source of every information. I know I'm going to get downvoted for saying this, but I think it is important enough.
It is fair to observe that the expertise here is math rather than medicine. However, epidemiologists have already made these predictions. Don't see any harm in signalling broader academic support. Particularly not since none of the signatories could plausibly be accused of exaggerating the danger, in order to extract grant money. As goes the usual cynical claim of innumerate science-deniers.
South Korea has, at no point, made anything close to the country-wide “lockdown” we’re seeing in parts of Europe.
Korea’s reaction is amongst the most successful in the world, and involves contact tracing and isolation of the sick. When they have “locked down” anything, it’s been extremely small scale, on the order of a building or block. Similarly, Taiwan has had an immensely successful response, without resorting to these kinds of extreme measures.
This article is designed to scare, not to inform.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…
Have you not been reading the news in the US and Europe the last few years? This is exactly what was to be expected from the current set of government leaders. Respect for expertise and rationality are considered disqualifying qualities in a politician nowadays.
I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…
I fear that the situation is already at that state in the USA. There are 1600 confirmed cases but the lack of tests hides how many real infections there are.
The CDC is headquartered in Atlanta. Where do the COVID-19 tests from them come from? Where are they manufactured, what ingredients do they require, how much do they cost to make, how long does it take to make them? What's the hold up on getting "unlimited" tests from the CDC? Do the tests even come from the CDC? How many are they producing a day? What are their blockers?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I cannot understand why unnecessary flying was not shut down weeks or months ago.
Go read HN comments from weeks and months ago, and see the posters encouraging prompt measures getting called paranoids. :) Now scale this up to the whole country and account for the fact that HN is probably a little better on average about reasoning about these things. But now, on HN now we're mostly preaching to the choir... I've been contacting the officials of my state and surrounding communities since February 2…
Exactly. Two weeks ago every coronavirus thread on Hacker News was full of deniers claiming this was no worse than the flu and this was all just media hysteria. Some probably still hold that opinion. I don't think they will be convinced until the hospitals start overflowing.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
At least he closed the borders. Russia as well. EU can't even do that.
He did it in an ineffective way. US nationals were returning from the EU without any screening. And it was way too late. All a bunch of xenophobia theater.
There are legal and logistical challenges in preventing US residents from entering or imposing quarantine.
Would strong or (more importantly) earlier responses have been good? Absolutely! But a weak and late response is much better than an even later response (even if the later response is stronger).
By the numbers we should prefer a non-US-resident ban-- even without screening/quarantine-- on day 20 than a everyone-ban on day 40.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan, and then largely to Wuhan itself and Hubei - they didn't let the population know about the danger, so for quite some time no one was thinking about protecting themselves by wearing m…
> China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan... Uh, China dropped the ball for a full 3 months since the first reports of a novel respiratory disease started back in November . First denying it, then jailing the doctors who tried to raise the alarm. Not to mention not enforcing their own laws regarding food hygiene put in place after SARS which would…
Any delays by other 1st world countries after 31st Dec are largely their own fault.