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Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
71–80 of 740 posts
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#72As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…
Just like China, there was a time when Italy had 1 case, then 2 cases, then 4, etc. Italy was unable to stop the spread before reaching a huge level and spreading to other countries. Why blame China for "allowing this virus to spread all around the world" when Italy allowed the same? (Italy even had a warning that it was coming!)
A bit facetious I know but I don't feel that bat soup or pangolin pie would ever be an element of Italian cuisine
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
This letter doesn't make any contraversial scientific claims. Please, highlight anything you think is in doubt?
> The virus is spreading at maximum speed, How do you determine scientifically the 'maximum' speed that a virus could be spreading?
This is a really pedantic nitpick over an ESLism. It's spreading extremely quickly. No one is seriously contesting that.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#74As a physicist, it still feels odd to me they are talking about statistics with such confidence here. It seems only SK has earned that right and has tested enough people to get reliable statistics. If you only measure the sick in the hospital...
As a physicist, you are familiar with formulas similar to this:
N_obs = p_detect * 2^( n_days / T_double )
N_obs : The number of observed cases p_detect : The fraction of actual cases that are detected (assumed to be constant) n_days : number of days T_double : The number of days it takes for the number of real cases to double
If you examine the formula, the p_detect constant is almost insignificant. If T_double = 2, a difference in a detection rate of 0.2 and 0.8 is only 4 days for n_days.
As long as T_double is less than several months (and constant), an absolute catastrophy will occur. Within a weeks from now, nearly the entire fraction of the population that is receptive to infection will get infected, and will be sick basically at the same time. With 10-15% of the population requiring intubation, we can end up with a significant part of the population in each country ending up dead.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#75The last part urges lockdowns like China and South Korea but my understanding is that South Korea has not been doing lockdowns and instead was able to ramp up testing quickly and isolate infected from others. Is that incorrect?
Yes no lock downs and I believe minimal travel restrictions (only Wuhan, China?). They did extend the school holidays. Even in the center of the outbreak Daegu there was no lockdown in the city.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#76Not sure why this is on the number 1 spot currently. This is a letter signed by non-experts (albeit sometimes scientists/engineers). To me, it comes off as the climate-change denier letters or 9/11 "truthers" letters. Please let the experts do their job. Don't spread uninformed opinions backed up by Facebook posts and panicked researchers with expertise "relevant to virus spreading" such as electronics, architecture…
We are not anywhere near the point where the panic of this virus is worse than the potential outcome of the virus. If anything there is not ENOUGH strong movement being made.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#77As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…
You can’t fast track things past what they’ve already been fast tracked. Stop second guessing the experts. What is the use of a hurried vaccine tomorrow if next month it turns out to cause birth defects or global infertility or cancer.
> You can’t fast track things past what they’ve already been fast tracked. Stop second guessing the experts
I'm well aware of how trials work (I happen to work in a scientific institution which does plenty). They may have been fast-tracked elsewhere, but not in my country.
So far there's just compassionate use, which means they're administered only to people who have truly severe sympthoms.
A vaccine can wait, to be honest, it's not as critical as a treatment to lessen the sympthoms. In fact, that's why Gilead is also testing their drug here (not sure when the actual protocols will start, though).
Note that I'm not advocating for "let's scrap all the trials stuff". But trials in phase III have, for obvious reasons, very lengthy time frames. And it's not the first time (I attended a talk a few years ago on the topic) where the system (which works, normally) shows its limits (not only emergencies, but for example orphan drugs).
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#78I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…
I believe you’re correct. The SK approach has been more focused on individual quarantines and aggressive monitoring: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-south-korea-dif...
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#79One of the most important upvotes of our lives.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#80As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…
> As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus.
China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan, and then largely to Wuhan itself and Hubei - they didn't let the population know about the danger, so for quite some time no one was thinking about protecting themselves by wearing masks, social distancing etc. But the trouble is, Italy then made the exact same mistake by being late with containment measures, and now the UK and US are doing the same. So there's nothing to roll one's eyes or raise eyebrows about.