Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community • Hacker News Board

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#311

Post by baron_harkonnen » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:30 AM UTC

on_and_off wrote: post #151

delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

I fear that the situation is already at that state in the USA. There are 1600 confirmed cases but the lack of tests hides how many real infections there are.

This is the interesting case where anecdote really does become data. If there are truly only 1,600 confirmed cases then hearing a few stories from a friend of a friend that they know people are sick should still be very unlikely.

The fact that many people here and around the web are sharing stories of sick friends is are a set of anecdotes that would be nearly impossible if the reported numbers were correct.

I suspect by this coming weekend the US will feel very different. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a major update to official numbers came and completely changed the current state of where things are.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#312

Post by adinobro » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:32 AM UTC

c789a123 wrote: post #246

adinobro wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New viruses come out all the time. This viruses wasn't isolated as different till the end of December. The Doctor wasn't jailed ... The virus was spread at the market. It didn't start at the market. Until we know where it started we don't know if it would have stopped the virus or not.

The doctors were not jailed, because luckily CCP need them to work to fight the virus. Some of them died for it already, mostly due to the hard work, insufficient protection CCP provided to the doctors, and in one case at least, intentionally punish the doc by delay his treatment. Talking about the origin of this virus, this paper of 2015 is quite interesting: https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 . In this paper,…

He was brought in to sign a confession/apology on the 3rd before things were out of control.

He is/was also a member of the CCP.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#313

Post by Taek » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:32 AM UTC

hatenberg wrote: post #292

delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

No leader wants to take drastic action for their nation when the number of deaths they can point to for justification is smaller than the number of deaths for the seasonal flu. If they save lives and prevent the disease from spreading, it looks like they over-reacted and unnecessarily tanked the economy.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#314

Post by joe_the_user » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:33 AM UTC

warent wrote: post #270

joe_the_user wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shame on her People should stay where they are. Lockdown is not a disaster. People fleeing lockdown are literally the carriers of this disaster. Stay where you are, wait. Don't travel. Don't fight the locdown. Lockdown is the current, appropriate course of action. A very effective lockdown can eliminate the infection in, well, however long it took to eliminate it in Wuhan. Fleeing the lockdown now is just going to an…

I didn't see them say anything about "fleeing a lockdown." She was fleeing a potentially life-threatening virus in a scary situation in order to be with her family. That isn't so hard to grok, and obviously she felt she was making the right decision. Shaming someone for looking for security and safety in a scary situation (i.e. for being human) is just absurd.

She was fleeing a potentially life-threatening virus in a scary situation in order to be with her family.

I hate to put this harshly but... She may well be fleeing with a life threatening virus that will kill her family. This has happened already, even documented, in China.

We can't look to our own comfort at this point. All my family visits are postponed and my food is mostly stocked up.

And it's a hard situation where we won't all make the best choices but still want to pressure everyone to make the appropriate choices.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#315

Post by wrs » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:33 AM UTC

hatenberg wrote: post #292

delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

Have you not been reading the news in the US and Europe the last few years? This is exactly what was to be expected from the current set of government leaders. Respect for expertise and rationality are considered disqualifying qualities in a politician nowadays.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#316

Post by theseadroid » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:34 AM UTC

lbeltrame wrote: post #36

As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…

> could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the world.

I don't understand this logic. Because China made a mess at the beginning of the pandemic, so we shouldn't copy the model they employed at later stage that is proven to be working?

Or because China is an authoritarian state, so everything it does is bad and nothing we can learn from them? Well China has been copying and learning from any countries for a while now and that's what makes it stronger by day. Just keep blaming China and do nothing. That will surely make China less powerful and less influential.

You know what's scary? All major democracies failed to manage the pandemic while China becomes the most powerful country after all this.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#317

Post by res0nat0r » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:34 AM UTC

Taek wrote: post #313

hatenberg wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

No leader wants to take drastic action for their nation when the number of deaths they can point to for justification is smaller than the number of deaths for the seasonal flu. If they save lives and prevent the disease from spreading, it looks like they over-reacted and unnecessarily tanked the economy.

The USA is going to be in terrible shape very soon, just look at this as of tonight: https://twitter.com/davidenrich/status/1239004689338970113

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#318

Post by jacquesm » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:34 AM UTC

bitL wrote: post #301

jacquesm wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing the point of my comment. A bat infecting a pig or some other two step is a pre-cursor to many Zoonotic events. Those wet markets are indeed a huge accelerator. But the pre-conditions exist in many places and all it takes is one butcher that isn't paying attention and you've got the ball rolling. Africa and Asia have a lot of this and so are a recurring theme in these very unfortunate stories. But it c…

Bushmeat gave us Ebola as well. Deer hunting might give us CWD soon (we observed transmission to human-model mice already) and that one is basically disinfectable only by using high heat and pressure together.

Bushmeat gives Ebola over-and-over again. It has crossed the species barrier many times already.

And let's not forget about diseases like these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat...

Even though they do not involve viruses they are still part of a similar kind of interplay between species.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#319

Post by _jal » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:35 AM UTC

hatenberg wrote: post #292

delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

Allow me to suggest we wait to blame until after things are on the upswing. I completely understand the impulse -- hell, I'm doing it myself -- but for most of the folks reading, the worst of this is ahead. I'm trying to focus on a bit of prep I haven't done, trying to anticipate for different scenarios and being kind to those around me.

And my snarky side says there will be plenty more targets to blame in the coming weeks - think of it as an investment.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#320

Post by tunesmith » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:36 AM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #180

furyofantares wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only 150 cases in AU at the time Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson got it. Only a thousand in the US when two NBA players got it. Only 150 in Canada when the Prime Minister's wife got it. Only 150 cases in Brazil when the press secretary got it. These people certainly have more exposure to other humans than most people do. But not so much that they should be making up whole percentages of the infected population. I believe t…

There are two sides of that coin. One side: it's much more widespread than we realize. Other side: it's much more mild and less fatal than we first thought.

At the Friday press conference, they said that the LabCorp / LabQuest tests were testing about 2% positive. I don't have much of an insight to this, but isn't that weirdly low if it's truly everywhere? Especially if you factor in the limited testing and that testing will only be given to the more urgent high risk cases. 98% are just something else like the cold or the flu, or a false negative.