Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a really good dataset (with a really clunky visualization, but hey!) Indeed. There are typically above 3000 deaths/week due to Pneumonia and 200/week due to influenza at this time of year. We had a smallish spike in mid-late January, where for 3 consecutive weeks, deaths were above trend at nearly 4000 & 400 per week. If you assume a 1% mortality rate for COVID, and you assume all deaths are due to pneumonia,…
If you are in ICU with flu symptoms, they don't just shrug when the rapid influenza test comes back negative. There are reflex tests that can be run to confirm positive or negative.
Critical cases and fatal cases are way more likely to be detected for this reason -- but during the 3 weeks I was talking about, it was believed that there was no COVID in the US, except for folks evacuated from China to quarantine sites.
During that time unexplained pneumonia leading to death -- especially in an older individual -- would likely not have been thought to be COVID, and would just have gone on the books as pneumonia.