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Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

ma.ttias.be

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Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#21

Post by AllegedAlec »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #9
mtsr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.

Sounds like some dystopian eugenics shit to be honest, get rid of those who no longer contribute to society. I for one am working towards my old age, I'd hate to be left to just die.

> eugenics

That word doesn't work when describing people who are no longer part of the reproducing population.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#22

Post by polote »

This article describes how to approach the problem to minimize economic cost by keeping under control the number of deaths.

Which would be how a company think, I'm pretty sure governments don't think like that

Most presidents want to be elected at the next election and this is probably the main thing they are trying to optimize right now

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#23

Post by duemti »

izacus wrote: post #7

Or perhaps our government is acting and handling the threat, just not in a way mass hysteria on Twitter demands. Knee jerk reaction usually ends up in theater, not proper containment. (Then again, my government isn't the Belgian government.)

Exactly! From what i have seen, the governments are acting, even in my country with only 3 confirmed cases, the schools are already shut down. It is media that amplify the panic so that no matter what governments do it seems not enough.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#24

Post by davedx »

dexen wrote: post #15
varjag wrote: post #2

Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.

>The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact This is self-evident, both due to first-order and second-order effects. How the author manages to stand it on its head is amazing. It's worth noting that approaching, or exceeding, the capacity of the medical system (or any other) drives the costs sky high by and of itself - not to mention other, unre…

> There is always the slowest country to act, and its citizens would feel entitled to the kind of far-fetched speculation the author posted.

Sounds about right. Belgium and the Netherlands aren't doing very much yet.

One interesting fact I discovered when discussing with my wife last night that I think does shape the discussion here: In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1%. This leads to different framings of the comparative severity of Coronavirus in the Netherlands.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#25

Post by nextstep »

I think HN should enact stronger Coronavirus-related moderation like Reddit has. This is a bad post from a software engineer (not a health professional) and it offers an amateur analysis without even providing a real suggestion. What benefit does this provide in a crisis?

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#26

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

aetherspawn wrote: post #12

Had an interesting thought earlier. Seeing as a majority of deaths are in the range 60 years and above, and very little of the casualties affect younger (working) people, from the governments POV the virus will do well to decrease the disproportionate number of older pension receivers and nursing home residents in comparison with the dwindling number of young people working and paying taxes. In other words, the gover…

>their POV may be that the virus will have a net positive effect on the economy and also accommodation affordability for the younger generation.

Stressing systems like that is far more damaging/costly than managing the situation with care. Even if the death toll for the elderly explodes, there will be far more more old people requiring intensive care over time. Don't look at the death tool only, the coronavirus does not "kill clean".

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#27

Post by tasogare »

They don’t act because they don’t care. It’s people dying, and their eyes are focused on purely economic metrics, not the well-being of the population or its survival. In the particular case of Europe, this is not the first thread that is totally discarded by the ruling elite, it’s the usual way of acting. It’s more visible with the virus because the timescale is shorter, but fundamentally there is no difference with how some other important threats are handled (for instance, see how the current acts of war from Turkey against Greece are handled by France and Germany).

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#28

Post by perlgeek »

artemonster wrote: post #11
AllegedAlec wrote: post #3

> Here in Belgium though … we’re doing nothing. No government-based sanctions. That's because Belgium has no government to put sanctions into place.

What?

Belgium is famous for not having a government many times, and if it has one, it's often not able to act.

Belgium has a pretty divided population (Wallonia/Flanders) and no winner-takes-all election system, and so there's often a stalemate where no majorities can be reached for any votes, including for electing the government officials).

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#29

Post by nl »

This is just so completely wrong.

He just relabelled the curves for no apparent reason!

To make it clear: The vertical axis should not be number of deaths. While the number infected remains below the health system capacity the number of deaths should remain relatively low. But once it hits capacity there is a step function that ratchets it up.

And the horizontal axis isn't cost at all. The green line shows something that is within the normal capacity of the health system. There aren't additional costs and so should be relatively cheap.

And the green curve is great - everyone would like that - that's the normal Flu. The Blue curve is the maximum we can sustain without overwhelming the health system.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#30

Post by sandgiant »

This looks like false conclusions from oversimplifying the death ratio above health care saturation.

You can't just change the axis labels because the death ratio depends non-linearly on infection ratio above the threshold.

Are we willing to take the risk when we don't know the consequences?

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