Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
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Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#2Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#3> Here in Belgium though … we’re doing nothing. No government-based sanctions.
That's because Belgium has no government to put sanctions into place.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#4Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity.
This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#5Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.
And they’re owed pensions or other tax expenditures like healthcare.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.
And they’re owed pensions or other tax expenditures like healthcare.
Cynical but probably true.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#7Or perhaps our government is acting and handling the threat, just not in a way mass hysteria on Twitter demands. Knee jerk reaction usually ends up in theater, not proper containment.
(Then again, my government isn't the Belgian government.)
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#8I see how the struggle for economic reasons, but I have too little faith in them being smart enough for that plan and doubt they have good enough data scraping by the max capacity line so closely with confidence.
Even the graph in the article is weird, why is there a sharp limit at max capacity in the T2 curve? the virus doesn't care about max capacity....
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#9Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.
Sounds like some dystopian eugenics shit to be honest, get rid of those who no longer contribute to society.
I for one am working towards my old age, I'd hate to be left to just die.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#10I like how cost is modelled as linear with time here and independent of deaths.
Surely, cost is the area under the curve of the original graph. Massive strain on our systems doesn’t come for free.