> Here in Belgium though … we’re doing nothing. No government-based sanctions. That's because Belgium has no government to put sanctions into place.
What?
Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
11–20 of 436 posts
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#12Had an interesting thought earlier. Seeing as a majority of deaths are in the range 60 years and above, and very little of the casualties affect younger (working) people, from the governments POV the virus will do well to decrease the disproportionate number of older pension receivers and nursing home residents in comparison with the dwindling number of young people working and paying taxes.
In other words, the government probably realizes that despite the grim reality, their POV may be that the virus will have a net positive effect on the economy and also accommodation affordability for the younger generation.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#13Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.
Even in the red scenario, the number of people who will end up sick for a long time and require a lot of care outnumbers the death toll.
Caring well is always better than not caring. Unless we won't care in the green scenario either. But then, who think we won't care if we have time and resources?
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#14Nice analysis, although there is no evidence that the economic impact is as described in the chart (#deaths/cost)
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#15Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
>The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact
This is self-evident, both due to first-order and second-order effects. How the author manages to stand it on its head is amazing. It's worth noting that approaching, or exceeding, the capacity of the medical system (or any other) drives the costs sky high by and of itself - not to mention other, unrelated cases that also need treatment. With a few weeks worth of disruption to healthcare, even mild cases of other illnesses can spiral out of control and become costly (or even deadly) on their own.
I wouldn't read too much into a country having a muted or slow response to the pandemic; it's the expected outcome of political and economical systems differing across the globe. There is always a slow country to act, and its citizens might feel entitled to the kind of far-fetched speculation the author posted.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#16Or perhaps our government is acting and handling the threat, just not in a way mass hysteria on Twitter demands. Knee jerk reaction usually ends up in theater, not proper containment. (Then again, my government isn't the Belgian government.)
The article states that beligum is not taking any measures at all. So the gov is handling the threat by inaction?
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#17> Here in Belgium though … we’re doing nothing. No government-based sanctions. That's because Belgium has no government to put sanctions into place.
What?
After the last elections on 26 May 2019, the winnings parties have been unable to form a coalition, so there is no real cabinet at the moment which has the power to do the things that need to be done.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#18Or perhaps our government is acting and handling the threat, just not in a way mass hysteria on Twitter demands. Knee jerk reaction usually ends up in theater, not proper containment. (Then again, my government isn't the Belgian government.)
So to you would consider what’s been done so far by the US federal government not theater?
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#19Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.
Not aimed at you, but, I am disgusted at even a mention of these kind of 'calculations'.
And yes, I am prepared to take a hit in my earnings, paying higher taxes if needed after this if that is what it takes for at least one person more to live.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#20Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
No it's not. It's just one guy making up random shit on a blog and is pretending that governments think like him.
The reality is probably closer to the fact that there isn't anything governments can do about it. They can try to shut down the borders of the country, but that is going to a lot worse and probably won't stop it anyways.
Just because governments can do something and do do something doesn't mean that that something is meaningful or will have a positive impact.
Many things are just outside of their control.