I think this is far too optimistic.
1. We don't know the actual reality of what's happening on the ground in China. Hubei and Italy have approximately the same population, yet Italy is suffering more proportionally. I think the obvious explanation is drastic underreporting of cases and fatalities in China. When all is said and done I think China probably has underreported by at least a magnitude if not double that.
2. Most Western countries won't impose the type of strategies that China undertook; they simply can't. When things get too bad to impose draconian quarantines, it'll be too late. Even Italy's efforts in quarantining the nation are not enough.
3. Most of the world doesn't have good healthcare. I'm talking about Africa, Southwest Asia, South America. There simply aren't enough ICU beds and ventilators to go around. Even in the US, I've read reports of only 100K ventilators nationwide. If the pandemic keeps growing exponentially with a doubling period of 4 days, the US alone will have 1M cases by mid-April.
4. Simple math. World population outside of China is 6.5B. If 10% are infected (very conservative imho) we're looking at 650M cases world wide. If the CFR drops to 1%, then we're in the neighborhood of 6.5m fatalities. And the survivors? Roughly 81% of those infected survive with no serious side effects. The remainder have serious health issues even after the disease runs its course. That's 117M casualties. This is world altering.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus