The fatality rate of Italy is scary high. I read the reason is that they have such a high percentage of elderly.
There are reports that they have a shortage of ventilators, so a lot of patients that could be saved are dying.
Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#182So this is awaiting all countries, in all likelihood? I mean what's the difference between Italy and Switzerland? Or Germany? Or the United States?
The united states is going to fare a lot worse. Their president is actively contradicting his own experts and essentially encouraging people to go on spreading the disease.
It's going to be a clusterfuck.
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#183Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#184So this is awaiting all countries, in all likelihood? I mean what's the difference between Italy and Switzerland? Or Germany? Or the United States?
Well, depends on the number of cases and the effected area.
If Milan is affected in Italy, you are guaranteed the virus will spread anywhere, it's a key place after all.
There is also a psychological factor to count in of course...
Social and ALL other media have been flooded with the virus 24/7 since the first confirmed case.
It generates good views, everyone wants a piece of that, and now we have this nation-wide phicosys
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Agree 2. Possibly, I don't think Macron is immune to over-reaction 3. The economic damage is the damage caused by the reaction, not by the virus itself 4. I am not talking about some rural generalist. These are infectious diseases specialists, who from what I can tell publish in the likes of the New England, I give them more credit on that topic than the average TV anchor or newspaper editor
>The economic damage is the damage caused by the reaction, not by the virus itself Exactly. I wonder what would have happened if this entire virus was treated similarly to the seasonal flu.
Then you'd get Wuhan, all over the world. A swamped medical system, 3+% death rates, infected population growing exponentially, thanks to nobody having an immunity.
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am sorry about hijacking this, but I don't know what's happening in Bergamo. Particularly hard flare of the virus, or something else? Tried searching for news, didn't get far.
You can read this report from a doctor there (translated in English on reddit): https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_... (the original links in Italian are at the bottom of the post if you prefer that)
And long comments full of vivid imagery lile this are EXACTLY why people are dissuaded from making social media posts, exemplified by the poster:
"Sorry, but to me, as a doctor, it's not reassuring that the most serious are mainly elderly people with other pathologies."
This could not be less helpful or more harmful. There is no useful information (that i got to, couldnt get all the way through). This is not an letter to the who or CDC trying to affect policy. This is a goddamn reddit post to scare people, vaguely, with the feelings of hospital staff. Im glad this doctor cares about comorbid patients, but this emotional non-rational prose is what drives mass hysteria and panics. We need data and recommendations.
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#187Just spoken to an Italian friend, apparently they got a few hours notice before this was enforced (much more kept under-wraps than the previous quarantine of Northern Italy). Expect other Western European Countries to follow this pattern as the number of cases increase [1]. I would specifically be looking at France, Spain and Germany as potential next candidates. If people here haven't already, I would recommend not…
> much more kept under-wraps than the previous quarantine of Northern Italy Without that irresponsible leak, and the irresponsible reaction of people trying to "escape", this total lockdown would probably not be necessary. People sometimes are right shits.
> Without that irresponsible leak, and the irresponsible
> reaction of people trying to "escape", this total lockdown
> would probably not be necessary.
The leak was far from ideal, but I still think Italy would be in the same situation. I suspect there were already an un-contained spread in the South before the lockdown in the North.
> People sometimes are right shits.
This is still true, but I am not so sure they can be completely blamed. When people are scared they act irrationally and this should be incorporated into any plan.
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
I hope (and suspect) that the ECB (and Europe as a whole) will financially stand behind Italy, no questions asked (I'm a fellow European).
What happens when France and Germany and Spain reach Italy totals? Who will be left to help out?
Good question, I'm thinking that the EU (because at that point this will have become a political issue) will have to put all its geo-political weight to good use and force a debt moratorium, I don't think that just plain old QE (or whatever else they'll decide to call it) will work anymore. That could at least relieve some pressure off Italy, which has one of the highest debts to service from the OECD group.
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
The range of mortality I see is rather 0.3-1% [1] [2] [1] https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1236321986122375168 [2] https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1235956761015783427 Not a doctor, but I suspect 3.4% is the upper end of the case fatality ratio (i.e. death among people tested positive) as opposed to the infection fatility ratio (i.e. death among estimate of people infected).
Mortality rates are low because hospitals are working. Intensive care beds in Italy are projected to be full in less than 10 days. You’ll see the rate grow by then.
Areas that were locked down exactly 15 days ago, now seem to have seen a significant decrease in infection rates in the last few days. So there is hope that the system will fire on all cylinders and hold the line just long enough to weather the storm. Also, Southern Italy is significantly drier and warmer than Northern Italy, which might (might) help.
One of the issues working against this scenario is the fact that the worst-affected regions are also the ones with the best health services. The other regions might struggle to respond as efficiently as the "pioneers", although they will benefit from the accumulated experience.
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#190I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connections, it had to be either us or Germany. We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China (I can see it from my dayjob as industrial automation SI), and if you factor in the small average size of Italian companies requi…
> I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connection
Just be honest and say that it did happen from tourism. It's ok to say that moron.
You so full of shit it's unreal. If what you said was true, America would be dead my by now. Hahah
I'll pull myself.
That is more truth than your words.