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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#161

Post by igravious »

adventured wrote: post #137
igravious wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep extrapolating that tens of millions will die, and I don't doubt that tens of millions surely would _if_ there were no lock-downs! (The subject of this article!) The whole point of locking down Wuhan/Hubei and then northern Italy and now the whole country and other places and cancelling large public gatherings and events is that local, regional, and national authorities start seeing the numbers soaring and…

There is cause for optimism in the numbers out of South Korea and China. Even assuming China has lied about their numbers (population ratios with Italy and South Korea vs China make that plainly clear, they lied to a large degree on the numbers), if China has managed to bring it under control through their extreme quarantine measures, then we can prevent it from killing tens of millions. South Korea seems to have con…

Thoughtful and level-headed response. :)

We might ballpark the number of global deaths – in the optimistic case† at between 20,000 and 30,000 souls. Not a global tragedy, on a scale of the recent Ebola outbreak, but warranting much more drastic action.

There's a huge sense of urgency. We could have a vaccine before the next flu season in the northern hemisphere.

† assuming not every country acts quickly when the time comes nor acts as effectively as China

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#162

Post by toyg »

pmontra wrote: post #120
wpasc wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have a trip scheduled first 2 weeks in june, also unsure of what to do

My gut feeling from Italy: May, difficult. June, maybe. But expect that this disease expands to almost everywhere so what's going to be the status of your country by then, regardless where you are from? I'm not expecting to be able to travel much this summer, not because I'm from Italy but because every country is going to have its own share of problems.

> May, difficult

I have an interest in this (I booked a business trip to Italy end of May / beginning of June), but my gut feeling is that the country will not stand for two months of complete lockdown. Two weeks, sure; a month, probably; two months is a very long time to keep so many things on hold. Italy is not China.

I expect some measures will stay in place (particularly about large gatherings), but not all.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#163

Post by asjw »

wpasc wrote: post #51
ThisIsTheWay wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fully agreed, this is a big concern of mine as well. We've got a 2 week trip planned to Italy in May, but that is likely to get cancelled this week based on the growing concerns throughout the country. I am fully expecting to reschedule our same trip later in the year, but until the virus starts to slow down significantly, I'm not comfortable rebooking.

have a trip scheduled first 2 weeks in june, also unsure of what to do

Living in Milan.

Given the nature of this outbreak the real issue is not 'when' it is gonna happen anywhere else, but 'when'.

Italy has been hit first and I must say the reaction of the regions has been uneven, but in the future if the virus doesn't stop with the warmer weather, maybe your country is gonna keep people from flying abroad, so I think it's very difficult to make proper plans right now and, as far as tourism is concerned, 2020 is gone.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#164

Post by dang »

paganel wrote: post #21

Unreal, a month ago (February 7th) I was posting this news story [1] related to the city of Shenzen which was about to be put into some form of lockdown, it only received one upvote. A month from that event and we have an entire European country (a G7 member to add) under lockdown. I guess the normalcy bias [2] was too strong for too many people until reality hit us hard in the face. [1] https://www.epochtimes.com/gb…

The biggest factor in what does or doesn't get upvotes is randomness, so you can't conclude anything from a single data point.

In that case (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22274728) also, the article wasn't in English, which makes it off topic here (we deeply respect other languages, but HN is an English-language site).

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#165

Post by toyg »

kjakm wrote: post #98
tiborsaas wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ripple effect is already in place. Flybe airline just defaulted, I've read a post on Linkedin that a small catering firm is suffering in Hungary due to cancelled events and other companies in the food chain will probably suffer a lot more especially if they operate with a razor thin margin. After the human factor, the virus will hit the economy hard. It's probably only a matter of time till it triggers a serious…

> Flybe airline just defaulted Although they tried to blame this on Coronavirus that's a small part of it most likely. They nearly folded a few months ago and the government promised them massive tax subsidies which it appears they never followed through on. Regardless my point is that Flybe collapsing his little to nothing to do with Coronavirus. It just accelerated things ever so slightly.

I agree - Flybe is the British Alitalia, they would have cracked at the first crisis anyway. Still, I'm happy to bet that, by June, they will not be the only airline to have folded.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#166

Post by fredoliveira »

tigroferoce wrote: post #157
pas wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you concerned about the news out of Bergamo?

I am. My wife is a MD, not in Bergamo, though, but the news are quite worrying :-(

I am sorry about hijacking this, but I don't know what's happening in Bergamo. Particularly hard flare of the virus, or something else? Tried searching for news, didn't get far.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#167

Post by toyg »

bArray wrote: post #124

Just spoken to an Italian friend, apparently they got a few hours notice before this was enforced (much more kept under-wraps than the previous quarantine of Northern Italy). Expect other Western European Countries to follow this pattern as the number of cases increase [1]. I would specifically be looking at France, Spain and Germany as potential next candidates. If people here haven't already, I would recommend not…

> much more kept under-wraps than the previous quarantine of Northern Italy

Without that irresponsible leak, and the irresponsible reaction of people trying to "escape", this total lockdown would probably not be necessary.

People sometimes are right shits.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#168

Post by alisonatwork »

afiori wrote: post #93
J_cst wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been reviewing the situation with a colleague of mine, and we have now realized that the new measures are not enough. It makes no sense to allow burger king or any bar to stay open util 6 p.m. And it makes no sense to allow to go to work for any undeferrable (or also deferrable) reason. The only effective measure seems logically to be quarantine, and for me and my family (2+2), from tomorrow afternoon quaranti…

The problem with this is that a 14 day total economic halt will be devastating. Even assuming all office workers work remote basic social structure will be endangered. The hospitals need to stay open, people need to keep operating water and electricity utilities, food distribution needs to continue as many do not have 14 days of stock at home. It is not about those dams politician that only care about reelection numb…

In China we have been on economic halt since late January. The hospitals stay open, utilities are running, food deliveries, all of that is still working. There is no shortage of food or other daily products.

What has changed is that almost everything is being delivered from online store or purchased from supermarket or pharmacy during restricted hours. Anybody who worked a pink collar job before has no job now. Anybody who owned a brick and mortar business before is hoping that the government grants will cover the rent and allow it to reopen if/when things finally go back to normal.

Lockdown like this is no doubt devastating to the economy. I don't think we've seen the worst of it yet. But so far it hasn't affected supply of food, clothing, shelter.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#169

Post by wolco »

paganel wrote: post #24
fosk wrote: post #9

Italy is a country of 60M+ people and the 8th largest economy in the world, with a very high national debt and that significantly relies on tourism for its economy. Above and beyond the Coronavirus, this can terribly affect the long-term solvency of the country.

I hope (and suspect) that the ECB (and Europe as a whole) will financially stand behind Italy, no questions asked (I'm a fellow European).

What happens when France and Germany and Spain reach Italy totals? Who will be left to help out?

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#170

Post by cataflam »

fredoliveira wrote: post #166
tigroferoce wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am. My wife is a MD, not in Bergamo, though, but the news are quite worrying :-(

I am sorry about hijacking this, but I don't know what's happening in Bergamo. Particularly hard flare of the virus, or something else? Tried searching for news, didn't get far.

You can read this report from a doctor there (translated in English on reddit): https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_...

(the original links in Italian are at the bottom of the post if you prefer that)

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