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Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

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Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#101

Post by empath75 »

Retric wrote: post #88
greenhatman wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the difference between surpressed and contained? Yeah, if they stop containing it, it will start spreading again...

Suppressed means there is continued transmission, contained means that’s stopped. Rabies is suppressed with a continuing threat from wild animal populations. The recent Ebola virus outbreak on the other hand is an example of containment in action, with zero active cases at this point. The only long term success for suppression is from a vaccine. Contained on the other hand means every infected person can gain immunit…

Well if they manage to keep it suppressed they can keep the health care system from collapsing at least.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#102

Post by hurrdurr2 »

triangleman wrote: post #92
hurrdurr2 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just repeating what I was told when I chatted with some neighbors. Some are Trump supporters and they said it's a hoax. Anecdotal so take it as you will. Not sure why my comment warranted such a longwinded defensive reply.

It could have been cognitive dissonance. Certain segments of the population couldn't possibly be dismissing this virus as no worse than the flu, could they? https://www.scottadamssays.com/2020/03/05/episode-840-scott-... "Nobody under 70 has died, and over 700 people infected on that ship. So that's impressive." That's just from randomly seeking through one of his recordings.

You'd be surprised how many people I have talked to who told me they are not worried at all because it's just like the flu.

Yeah, China, Korea, and Italy quarantined millions over just the flu. Some people's ability to deny reality is very impressive.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#103

Post by gruez »

lhl wrote: post #14

I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…

>[...] and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news

A couple of weeks ago I saw a comment alleging that the subreddit had a pro-china bias[1]. Personally, I've noticed some patterns that seem to be consistent with those allegations:

* I frequent /r/all. when the subreddit shows up on /r/all (first or second page), it's almost always negative news about some country other than china

* I visited the subreddit on occasion and negative news about china are... few and never anywhere close to the top. At the writing of this comment[2] the only post about china is good news about a 100 year old man recovering from the infection.

* A few days ago there were stories of a hotel collapse in china (it was used to quarantine patients). Posts from various subreddits were showing up on /r/all (first page), however in the /r/coronavirus subreddit the story was in the middle of the first page. You'd think that if such a story was showing up on /r/all, that it'd be #1 or #2 place in the subreddit.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22438754

[2] https://archive.is/DBWSj

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#104

Post by DailyHN »

vanniv wrote: post #99
DailyHN wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gotta love the people that see people dying and are most concerned about the economy.

Stopping the world economy will kill many millions more people than COVID-19 could dream of

What does stopping the world economy entail?

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#105

Post by microcolonel »

vanniv wrote: post #96
microcolonel wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. In looking at the outbreak gripping Italy, it seems like hard quarantine is the most basic precaution, and perhaps we should be taking it before the first hundreds of people die in each of our countries.

Italy's quarantine will probably kill many more people than the virus ever could

What's your reasoning on that? I really want to know, since on the face it seems like an absolutely outrageous, borderline random conclusion to draw.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#106

Post by molmalo »

nolta wrote: post #65
jacobolus wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Edit: here’s a Lancet Editorial “COVID-19: too little, too late?” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... * * * Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP. The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge:…

In the last few days Ontario has found 2 cases of Covid-19 in people who recently travelled to the US: https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n... https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n... All the other cases we've seen were related to travel to Iran, Italy, Egypt, & China IIRC. EDIT: one was a woman who returned from Colorado on Mar 2, the other a man who returned from Las V…

In Argentina a new case just confirmed some hours ago is from a young man coming back from a conference in Boston, MA.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#107

Post by vanniv »

DailyHN wrote: post #104
vanniv wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stopping the world economy will kill many millions more people than COVID-19 could dream of

What does stopping the world economy entail?

In the context of this post: the kind of quarantine where nobody is allowed to venture far from their homes.

Where goods can't travel from where they are made to where they could be sold, or worse can't be made because nobody is allowed to leave home to go make them.

Where we isolate each country from the others, each state/province/region, each everywhere.

Where commerce is effectively ended due to the inability of people to participate in it.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#108

Post by gurumeditations »

jacobolus wrote: post #42
haunter wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again

Edit: here’s a Lancet Editorial “COVID-19: too little, too late?” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... * * * Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP. The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge:…

Everybody who works any public-facing job will go to work with a “cold”, I guarantee it. I did. The alternative is losing said job. Welcome to America.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#109

Post by knzhou »

gruez wrote: post #103
lhl wrote: post #14

I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…

>[...] and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news A couple of weeks ago I saw a comment alleging that the subreddit had a pro-china bias[1]. Personally, I've noticed some patterns that seem to be consistent with those allegations: * I frequent /r/all. when the subreddit shows up on /r/all (first or second page), it's almost always negative news about some country other than china * I visited the subred…

Just a month ago that subreddit was nothing but negative news about China, because China was doing a terrible job. Now China is evidently doing a good job and other countries are screwing up, so they're getting called out. Please don't turn every observation into the world into a conspiracy. It's possible for people to lack your nationalist fervor without being paid shills.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#110

Post by knzhou »

haunter wrote: post #18
lhl wrote: post #14

I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…

Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again

I've yet to see any opinion pieces from Business Insider that weren't shallow hit pieces. It's not a place for intelligent people to get information. Or, really, anyone.
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