Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality. 1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19. 2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his pr…
I'm just repeating what I was told when I chatted with some neighbors. Some are Trump supporters and they said it's a hoax. Anecdotal so take it as you will. Not sure why my comment warranted such a longwinded defensive reply.
Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
91–100 of 135 posts
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality. 1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19. 2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his pr…
I'm just repeating what I was told when I chatted with some neighbors. Some are Trump supporters and they said it's a hoax. Anecdotal so take it as you will. Not sure why my comment warranted such a longwinded defensive reply.
https://www.scottadamssays.com/2020/03/05/episode-840-scott-...
"Nobody under 70 has died, and over 700 people infected on that ship. So that's impressive."
That's just from randomly seeking through one of his recordings.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#93I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…
https://gist.github.com/Gro-Tsen/866cb55d6004356c142ebab462b...
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#94I figure there's some kind of "true" fatality rate that just answers the question of "If you catch the virus, you have this (age-adjusted) chance of dying". It seems like we'll asymptotically reach that "true" rate once testing is extremely common and liberal (to have confidence you are identifying all cases). Some countries are reaching that testing rate. Then your upper and lower bounds for that death rate are "dea…
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#95I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…
I found this link very interesting. It seems to show the reproduction number is decreasing quite fast in Italy (before the latest quarantine measures, making me wonder if they were really needed). In Korea, it's also just below 1, which would mark the end of the virus propagation if this is confirmed. If these numbers are accurate, it seems that the epidemics can be controlled without resorting to extreme measures. I'd be curious to get other people's opinions. I'm not quite sure I'm interpreting this data correctly.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#96In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate. R0 | % of population ---------------- 2.5 60% 2.0 50% 1.5 30% The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. There is no reason to assume it's constant or same in different countries and cultures.
> The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. In looking at the outbreak gripping Italy, it seems like hard quarantine is the most basic precaution, and perhaps we should be taking it before the first hundreds of people die in each of our countries.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#97I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…
Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again
Your take on things is interesting as one instance of 3blue1brown's point in the video: if everyone is worrying, you don't have anything to worry about. But if no one is worried, you should be worried. You seem to be taking a position of "Everyone else is worried. I assert that my non-worry will be proven to be the correct position." Yet, your prediction that the redditors are excessively worried ("panicky") will onl…
I even think the 500k death in the US is too much
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-pr...
>Lawler's estimates include:
>4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
>96 million cases overall in the US
>480,000 deaths
Once again I'm not downplaying it but I think we will be closer to the 1957-59 asian flu which had 70k deaths in the US and 2 million global BUT maybe that's even too much https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H2N2
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
What happens when infected soul from US / other place visits china ? Is there an immunity built up in infected people or does the clock reset ? You cant quarantine the world and expect a global economy to survive
Gotta love the people that see people dying and are most concerned about the economy.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
Edit: here’s a Lancet Editorial “COVID-19: too little, too late?” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... * * * Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP. The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge:…
> If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc. Unfortunately this is effectively "let them eat cake" for many people. Keeping kids out of school means not going to work. Not going to work means not having money to pay the bills, and very possibly losing your job. In China, where the state has basically total control, things like this can be done. In the US, it's going to be a t…
If it were up to me the federal government and state and local governments would be closing schools, closing nursing homes to visitors, canceling church services and sporting events, figuring out how to make transportation less risky, closing restaurants and bars to customers and drafting those workers to make deliverable prepared meals instead, recruiting childless people aged 15–40 into temporary (paid) public service jobs, doing everything possible to guarantee sufficient supply of protective equipment, taking every roadblock out from researching antiviral drugs for treating positive cases, etc.
Governments should be figuring out how to guarantee anyone with untested minor colds to stay home from work without losing pay until they can be tested; figuring out how to temporarily relieve rent, loan payments, and taxes for people quarantined or with jobs in temporarily affected industries; preparing to distribute food, medicine, and other items to patients in quarantine or isolated at home, and so on.
With a robust public response it should be possible to dramatically slow this virus without completely collapsing the economy. The fallout (not just illness/death but also economic impact) from all the cases hitting at once within a few weeks is going to be much more worse.
I’m not sure exactly what the best responses would be, I’m just spitballing here. But it seems to me we should have been thinking and talking about possible extreme measures for the past 6 weeks instead of collectively twiddling our thumbs and going on with our ordinary lives.