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Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

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Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#71

Post by kohtatsu »

gwright wrote: post #63
kohtatsu wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WRT 1) I think the fact the CDC hasn't had enough testing capability–as well as far too strict requirements surrounding the tests, perhaps because of their inadequate capabilities—is enough of a black mark.

Sure but 3) is just bullshit that just confuses everything for no valid reason. It is distracting dangerous noise that increases the anxiety of the public for no good reason.

3) will do a lot less harm than botching the response in the long run. AFAIAC none of that politicking matters.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#72

Post by duedl0r »

kohtatsu wrote: post #53
humaniania wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not get the news right from the primary source? The World Health Organization (part of the United Nations) publishes a daily situation report: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... Their director also has statements published regularly: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail

The numbers from China are not reliable; there are only disincentives to proper reporting. The way the WHO has coddled China is not exactly commendable. Diversity of sources and information is good anyway, barring some caveats. There is more than just raw numbers at play; you need a variety of sources to see impacts on daily life, how people are preparing, etc. I follow CBC (Canada), some fellow humans on twitter, an…

China is not reliable? You follow some random guy on twitter?

Here is some tinfoil for you...

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#73

Post by nodamage »

gwright wrote: post #52
hurrdurr2 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax. In CA btw.

> Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality. 1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19. 2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his pr…

(3) is kind of a strawman. No one actually thinks Donald Trump said the virus itself is a hoax. In context the "hoax" is referring to the claims about the seriousness of the virus and the government response to it.

And there are definitely Trump supporters calling the situation a hoax, as in, "this is a hoax to blow up the stock market and make Trump look bad, don't you know that more people die of the flu every year?".

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#74

Post by kohtatsu »

duedl0r wrote: post #72
kohtatsu wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers from China are not reliable; there are only disincentives to proper reporting. The way the WHO has coddled China is not exactly commendable. Diversity of sources and information is good anyway, barring some caveats. There is more than just raw numbers at play; you need a variety of sources to see impacts on daily life, how people are preparing, etc. I follow CBC (Canada), some fellow humans on twitter, an…

China is not reliable? You follow some random guy on twitter? Here is some tinfoil for you...

I get info from WHO, just making it clear they're not my only source. If I had to choose just one, sure WHO is great. Nobody has the "real" numbers for China so it's moot.

He's not a random guy; https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1228752554022068226 but he's also not my only source.

[Edit: I also didn't get my suspicion of China's numbers from him or anyone in particular; I follow China a lot and it's my own conclusion. In January I personally saw packed hospitals and dozens of dead bodies in twitter videos, and it's not exactly easy or safe to get those videos out.]

Maybe I've just been following the topic a lot more than other people. I can understand not having time for it. I have a respiratory condition, and live with an elderly person, so I actually worked my last day as a barista today in order to eliminate public contact. Where I am the virus probably won't come for a couple to a dozen weeks, if ever, but it's still a precaution I can afford to take so I did (I can consult from home).

Also I love tinfoil hats, thank you <3 (Sorry for the long thread, kinda hoping we get collapsed)

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#75

Post by crocodiletears »

nodamage wrote: post #51
haunter wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again

This Business Insider article seems really pointless and vapid to me. Their criticism of reddit is they don't link to official CDC or WHO pages at the top of their search results? You might as well level the same accusation at Hacker News or any other internet forum. And the fact that Facebook and Twitter has those links does nothing to stop them from being full of misinformation themselves. I looked through /r/covid…

Such demands infuriate me to no end. BI's prescription seems more mild than others, but a good example of where they can go awry is YouTube. Youtube used to be a great tool for finding primary sources and citizen livestreams during ongoing events.

The coup in Venezuela, the Yellow Vest protests, and even Charlottesville all had individuals, both partisans and observers contributing to a body of information that allowed interested people to develop a more holistic awareness of the ground-level context as it unfolded in real-time.

Seemingly there are a number of medical professionals providing coolheaded analysis of the COVID outbreak, but if I were to search it up, I would be subject to a tsunami of vapid, hyperbolic observations and speculations breathlessly belted out by talking heads whose two great skills are reading a teleprompter, and running their mouths between segments.

Every time something of cultural interest or controversy occurs, self-interested media outlets run hitpiece after hitpiece against whichever platform hasn't bent the knee to their industry in the recent past, all under the auspices of the public good, and ensuring only the highest quality information is available.

Which, of course, only inflames the skepticism and paranoia of those convinced that the media is plotting to control them, even as they deny knowledge to those capable of keeping themselves informed and acting through their own sources.

Traditional media is being outcompeted as a primary source for both critical audiences that want to stay informed, as well as for credulous audiences who want to be entertained, and hear what they already agree with.

This isn't to denigrate the great work being done around the globe by investigative journalists. News reporting is a thankless, and unprofitable venture. It's unfortunate that their great work is so often buried beneath a sea of punditry with little more insight than a reddit thread.

HN has been a great source for information on COVID 19, and I get links to primary articles that I wouldn't know to find, and which most publications only reference in passing. It helps me stay informed. If I was just passively reading/watching the news, I shudder to imagine what I'd think.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#76

Post by graeme »

nabla9 wrote: post #50
cklaus wrote: post #35

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months: 96,000,000 infections 4,800,000 hospitalizations 1,900,000 ICU admissions 480,000 deaths vs flu in 2019: 35,500,000 infections 490,600 hospitalizations 49,000 ICU admissions 34,200 deaths

Where it says next 2 months? If the doubling time is one week there is just something like 100k - 200k infections in next two months. I think those numbers are yearly infection estimates.

I think the graph meant 96 million infections active in the peak two months. Hard to be sure without seeing the presentation, but it definitely isn’t the next two months.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#77

Post by greenhatman »

m3kw9 wrote: post #11
melling wrote: post #3

China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.

China is in a different phase where it seems they have surpressed it rather than contained it. which means if they loosen up the lock down it could revert. It’s also an economic disaster that are trying contain from all the lock down.

I don't understand the difference between surpressed and contained?

Yeah, if they stop containing it, it will start spreading again...

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#78

Post by tunesmith »

I figure there's some kind of "true" fatality rate that just answers the question of "If you catch the virus, you have this (age-adjusted) chance of dying". It seems like we'll asymptotically reach that "true" rate once testing is extremely common and liberal (to have confidence you are identifying all cases). Some countries are reaching that testing rate. Then your upper and lower bounds for that death rate are "deaths / deaths + recoveries" and "deaths / confirmed cases", respectively, and they should converge as "active cases" decrease over time (as they either recover or die). You can use that "band" (between the upper and lower bounds) to judge other countries and determine whether they are testing enough - if they are above that "band", they are clearly not testing enough.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#79

Post by swsieber »

tunesmith wrote: post #78

I figure there's some kind of "true" fatality rate that just answers the question of "If you catch the virus, you have this (age-adjusted) chance of dying". It seems like we'll asymptotically reach that "true" rate once testing is extremely common and liberal (to have confidence you are identifying all cases). Some countries are reaching that testing rate. Then your upper and lower bounds for that death rate are "dea…

Are we talking with or without ventilator/hospital support?

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#80

Post by sigstoat »

maxerickson wrote: post #68
abootstrapper wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False. We’re a bunch of mostly self centered individualist who don’t like being told what to do and don’t trust facts, ideas, opinions, or people that contradict our preconceived notions.

What exactly do you think "paranoid" and "lunatic" mean?

"doesn't behave in a fashion maxerickson approves of"
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