China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
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Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#12China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#13China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#14For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran...
On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some of the most interesting visualization/graphs: https://twitter.com/Datagraver
I've found this via mrb (@zorinaq) who's been tracking the covid19 spread: https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1235850389020270595
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#15https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
Can anyone recommend anything to read to add more clarity?
Why does this appear in deep learning too?
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
The death ratio should only increase as the medical resources are exhausted
If the curve has flatlined in China and only 20,283 remain, China should not have a further problem with resources. The rest of the world, of course, is just getting started.
Is there an immunity built up in infected people or does the clock reset ?
You cant quarantine the world and expect a global economy to survive
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#17In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate. R0 | % of population ---------------- 2.5 60% 2.0 50% 1.5 30% The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. There is no reason to assume it's constant or same in different countries and cultures.
In countries where sanitation is an issue will the infection rate ever slow and when people from countries who have it controlled travel to those countries does it restart ? I think I have more questions now that I watched the video than I do answers :)
In the times of plague the places that suffered the least were:
- sparsely populated
- didn't participated much in the international trade
- used quarantines on the borders early
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/bubonic-plague-spares-pola...
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#18I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl...
Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.
Why? We're a bunch of paranoid lunatics, primed to avoid each other.
In CA btw.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#20The video says that it's really a logistic curve. Which is also the activation function (sigmoid) in a few machine learning articles that I've been reading. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function Can anyone recommend anything to read to add more clarity? Why does this appear in deep learning too?