Live data from Hacker News

Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

youtube.com

11–20 of 135 posts

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#11
post #3

China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.

China is in a different phase where it seems they have surpressed it rather than contained it. which means if they loosen up the lock down it could revert. It’s also an economic disaster that are trying contain from all the lock down.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#12
post #10
post #3

China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.

China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.

[deleted]

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#13
post #10
post #3

China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.

China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.

Why? We're a bunch of paranoid lunatics, primed to avoid each other.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#14
I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news.

For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran...

On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some of the most interesting visualization/graphs: https://twitter.com/Datagraver

I've found this via mrb (@zorinaq) who's been tracking the covid19 spread: https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1235850389020270595

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#15
The video says that it's really a logistic curve. Which is also the activation function (sigmoid) in a few machine learning articles that I've been reading.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Can anyone recommend anything to read to add more clarity?

Why does this appear in deep learning too?

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#16
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The death ratio should only increase as the medical resources are exhausted

If the curve has flatlined in China and only 20,283 remain, China should not have a further problem with resources. The rest of the world, of course, is just getting started.

What happens when infected soul from US / other place visits china ?

Is there an immunity built up in infected people or does the clock reset ?

You cant quarantine the world and expect a global economy to survive

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#17
post #4
post #2

In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate. R0 | % of population ---------------- 2.5 60% 2.0 50% 1.5 30% The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. There is no reason to assume it's constant or same in different countries and cultures.

In countries where sanitation is an issue will the infection rate ever slow and when people from countries who have it controlled travel to those countries does it restart ? I think I have more questions now that I watched the video than I do answers :)

Countries with worse sanitation also tend to have slower transportation and less population shuffling.

In the times of plague the places that suffered the least were:

- sparsely populated

- didn't participated much in the international trade

- used quarantines on the borders early

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/bubonic-plague-spares-pola...

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#18
post #14

I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…

Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl...

Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#19
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.

Why? We're a bunch of paranoid lunatics, primed to avoid each other.

Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax.

In CA btw.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#20
post #15

The video says that it's really a logistic curve. Which is also the activation function (sigmoid) in a few machine learning articles that I've been reading. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function Can anyone recommend anything to read to add more clarity? Why does this appear in deep learning too?

It's used in algorithms to provide a continuously differentiable function, which is much easier analyze than a step function.
Post reply on HN