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Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

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Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#81

Post by jacobolus »

ajuc wrote: post #17
geggam wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In countries where sanitation is an issue will the infection rate ever slow and when people from countries who have it controlled travel to those countries does it restart ? I think I have more questions now that I watched the video than I do answers :)

Countries with worse sanitation also tend to have slower transportation and less population shuffling. In the times of plague the places that suffered the least were: - sparsely populated - didn't participated much in the international trade - used quarantines on the borders early https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/bubonic-plague-spares-pola...

In modern times there is plenty of transportation and shuffling in crowded countries with poor sanitation. Remember it only takes a tiny bit of travel to spread a virus far and wide. I would predict things will get very bad in many parts of Latin America, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#82

Post by tunesmith »

swsieber wrote: post #79
tunesmith wrote: post #78

I figure there's some kind of "true" fatality rate that just answers the question of "If you catch the virus, you have this (age-adjusted) chance of dying". It seems like we'll asymptotically reach that "true" rate once testing is extremely common and liberal (to have confidence you are identifying all cases). Some countries are reaching that testing rate. Then your upper and lower bounds for that death rate are "dea…

Are we talking with or without ventilator/hospital support?

Yeah, that's a good point. Fatality increases as treatment options decrease. Treatment options can decrease whether it's a less advanced country, or a more advanced country that just gets overwhelmed due to poorer containment than other advanced countries.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#83

Post by MaysonL »

tunesmith wrote: post #78

I figure there's some kind of "true" fatality rate that just answers the question of "If you catch the virus, you have this (age-adjusted) chance of dying". It seems like we'll asymptotically reach that "true" rate once testing is extremely common and liberal (to have confidence you are identifying all cases). Some countries are reaching that testing rate. Then your upper and lower bounds for that death rate are "dea…

The thing is, there are probably some people who won't die, no matter how they're treated, and some who will die, no matter how they're treated. There are also quite a large number, probably about 4-5% of the population, who can be saved with correct treatment, from not very aggressive to extremely aggressive - up to running the blood through artificial lungs.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#84

Post by war1025 »

jacobolus wrote: post #42
haunter wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again

Edit: here’s a Lancet Editorial “COVID-19: too little, too late?” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... * * * Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP. The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge:…

> If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc.

Unfortunately this is effectively "let them eat cake" for many people.

Keeping kids out of school means not going to work. Not going to work means not having money to pay the bills, and very possibly losing your job.

In China, where the state has basically total control, things like this can be done. In the US, it's going to be a tough sell for an awful lot of people.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#85

Post by po »

war1025 wrote: post #84
jacobolus wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Edit: here’s a Lancet Editorial “COVID-19: too little, too late?” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... * * * Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP. The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge:…

> If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc. Unfortunately this is effectively "let them eat cake" for many people. Keeping kids out of school means not going to work. Not going to work means not having money to pay the bills, and very possibly losing your job. In China, where the state has basically total control, things like this can be done. In the US, it's going to be a t…

Ask any taxpayer and they will tell you that the US also has total control. I get your point about not having the right to force people to do things (ie people ignoring mandatory hurricane evacuation orders) but they do have the power to make it such that the people who do want to stay home but can’t due to financial reasons can. If there were the will for it.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#87

Post by killjoywashere »

haunter wrote: post #18
lhl wrote: post #14

I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…

Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again

Your take on things is interesting as one instance of 3blue1brown's point in the video: if everyone is worrying, you don't have anything to worry about. But if no one is worried, you should be worried.

You seem to be taking a position of "Everyone else is worried. I assert that my non-worry will be proven to be the correct position." Yet, your prediction that the redditors are excessively worried ("panicky") will only be borne out if those who worry are sufficient in number and intensity to keep downward pressure on the exponential multiplier.

There's a worry vector field around the Earth here, I can feel it. I wonder what you get with the line integral?

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#88

Post by Retric »

greenhatman wrote: post #77
m3kw9 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is in a different phase where it seems they have surpressed it rather than contained it. which means if they loosen up the lock down it could revert. It’s also an economic disaster that are trying contain from all the lock down.

I don't understand the difference between surpressed and contained? Yeah, if they stop containing it, it will start spreading again...

Suppressed means there is continued transmission, contained means that’s stopped. Rabies is suppressed with a continuing threat from wild animal populations. The recent Ebola virus outbreak on the other hand is an example of containment in action, with zero active cases at this point.

The only long term success for suppression is from a vaccine. Contained on the other hand means every infected person can gain immunity and the virus would then run out of new hosts.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#89

Post by gwright »

kohtatsu wrote: post #71
gwright wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but 3) is just bullshit that just confuses everything for no valid reason. It is distracting dangerous noise that increases the anxiety of the public for no good reason.

3) will do a lot less harm than botching the response in the long run. AFAIAC none of that politicking matters.

So what? Why are you trying to assess the relative harm of a fabrication with anything at all? 3) is just nonsense that distracts from real discussion and yet there are people here defending it. I just don't understand.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#90

Post by shawabawa3 »

yters wrote: post #22

Seems to have a much lower hospitalized mortality rate than 2017 flu https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-cor...

From (probably slightly misremembered) stats I've seen, it has approximately 40x the hospitalisation rate, but only 10x the death rate of flu

So yes, lower hospitalised mortality rate but only because so many more people are hospitalised

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