Waymo Via • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo Via

#201

Post by strbean » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:23 AM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #138

Pfhreak wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope the government does, but I also think it's in Waymo's best interest. We're not talking about a closet industry here, trucking employees ~8 million Americans, and probably supports many, many more than that. You've seen the fuss over coal miners in the States as of late? There are ~50,000 coal miners. At its peak, coal mining was less than a million miners. The potential civil unrest from disrupting trucking co…

I doubt it'll be a like a light switch where one day there were no Waymo trucks, and the next day there are no conventional trucks. It will likely be much closer to how Uber disrupted the Taxi Medallion market. You don't hear many people saying, "But think of the poor Taxi Medallion owners." But -- actually -- that was worse. It's literally a piece of paper. If you buy a truck today, and self-driving trucks are a thi…

Part of the reason few people said "think of the poor medallion owners" is because the whole medallion system was a deeply corrupt racket run by organized crime.

Re: Waymo Via

#202

Post by paxys » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:24 AM UTC

Pfhreak wrote: post #89

If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the population of the US. Trucking is a major industry. The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration fo…

These concerns are always overblown. The switch to autonomous vehicles isn't happening overnight. It'll be a generational change, and the current drivers will simply retire. If there's a young kid today who is dreaming of growing up and becoming a truck driver - yeah he's in trouble.

Re: Waymo Via

#203

Post by paxys » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:26 AM UTC

heartbreak wrote: post #199

ehsankia wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe it can drive during winter, just not in extreme condition (snowstorm). Of course, it can simply wait until the storm passes and continue. And honestly, many of the cases where Waymo can't safely drive, realistically most humans shouldn't be driving either but we still do because we're stubborn like that. OTOH, if there's a 24h stretch of good condition, it can drive the whole time.

I believe OP is referring to hauling lumber on unpaved roads ("forest tracks"), which is likely a very difficult task.

If it is possible for a human to do today, eventually a computer will be able to do it as well.

Re: Waymo Via

#204

Post by bepvte » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:27 AM UTC

Pfhreak wrote: post #89

If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the population of the US. Trucking is a major industry. The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration fo…

https://classic.qz.com/machines-with-brains/1017379/these-ar...

Re: Waymo Via

#205

Post by paxys » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:27 AM UTC

VectorLock wrote: post #18

bowmessage wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most likely there are drivers still on board to monitor and drive first and last mile.

They just chill in the sleeper cab the whole way and then "pilot" the last mile?

They don't have to be there the entire time. They can get on/off at a stop close to the city, for example.

Re: Waymo Via

#206

Post by paxys » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:28 AM UTC

thedance wrote: post #169

foota wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised that I hadn't seen leaks about this, if they were visible in public.

I've been wondering for years why nobody mentions this. I saw them on the road in Sunnyvale in 2018. Maybe people assume they are just regular trucks used to transport Waymo cars or something.

Maybe it was actually a self driving truck transporting a self driving car.

Re: Waymo Via

#207

Post by Ididntdothis » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:32 AM UTC

Pfhreak wrote: post #89

If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the population of the US. Trucking is a major industry. The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration fo…

“what Waymo is doing to help support the existing drivers, ”

Waymo should be doing nothing. Companies should work on improving technology. The problem is to distribute the gains. That’s what social safety nets are for. And progressive taxation should help to distribute gains from technological progress widely instead instead of only to a few capitalists. I am aware that this may be an unpopular opinion.

Re: Waymo Via

#208

Post by danans » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:36 AM UTC

jpitz wrote: post #196

bigmattystyles wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On top of that, I doubt any human trucker is defending their load against two humans with shotguns, and that doesn't happen today enough to make the news. If anything else, you can make it so the vehicle isn't drivable by a human (no interface) and make the cargo door super secure.

> On top of that, I doubt any human trucker is defending their load against two humans with shotguns, and that doesn't happen today enough to make the news. True, but if you aren't assaulting / endangering a driver, then the crime is lower-risk.

But if you are robbing an autonomous vehicle, you're probably going to be recorded doing it, and fleeing, which raises your risk because it leaves a pretty strong evidence trail. Yes, ski masks can be used to obscure your face, but car makes can be tracked if the getaway car has no plates.

If this becomes a frequent enough issue to matter economically, then perhaps we should start looking into what incentivizes stuff like that in the first place, and deal with it.

Re: Waymo Via

#209

Post by strbean » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:40 AM UTC

three_seagrass wrote: post #57

markstos wrote: post #23

As a bike/ped advocate, I believe self-driving cars will ultimately be safer than humans. Yesterday I was nearly hit crossing street twice: once by an inattentive driver and once by an intentionally reckless speeder. Oh the other hand, my brother has done a fair amount of truck driving and I'm aware it's a common job in the US. Maybe now that Bloomberg has dropped out he get together with Yang and use his billions to…

Yep, as a biker I now intentionally try to look at the driver through the windshield to see if their eyes are down on a cell phone. They are scarily more frequent than you would think.

As a driver, every once in awhile I glance at the faces of other drivers on the road.

Sometimes I get the feeling that more than 50% of road-time in the US is spent looking at a phone.

It's enough to make me wonder if "x% of accidents involved texting and driving" is even a convincing metric. If god damned everybody is texting and driving all the god damned time, of course lots of accidents involve texting and driving.

Re: Waymo Via

#210

Post by predictmktegirl » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 1:45 AM UTC

With how much money everyone is spending, wouldn't it just be cheaper to build a private cross-country interstate where only AI drivers are allowed. Let humans drive the trucks to this interstate then let the AI take over. It seems like almost all the edge cases would be solved if you just got rid of other human drivers and let the vehicles network with one another.