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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#421

Post by lucian1900 »

marcosdumay wrote: post #337
lucian1900 wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the US isn't a two party state with a ripe history (and present) of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship? Your view of China is almost entirely defined by US media, owned by capitalists. Perhaps consider they have an incentive to lie.

There is a discontinuity there. A two party system is many orders of magnitude more reliable than a single party system, even if not ideal. The US also has a much smaller history of hiding facts and persecuting the Press.

The two US parties are almost completely identical in behaviour. They have both continued brutal imperialism. They have both demonised countries that opposed said imperialism and persecuted the few in the US (press or otherwise) that were also opposed.

There is also no democratic control of the people over the US press, it's privately owned by only a few. The press has an extremely long history of hiding and fabricating facts, particularly against anti-capitalists.

More importantly, there is no democratic control over production and distribution. It is almost all privately owned.

The US's history of brutality and manipulation is unmatched.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#422

Post by gammadens »

zaroth wrote: post #245
learc83 wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you said cruise ships skew much older than the general population, so this tells us very little about the actual mortality rate. All 4 people who died were in their 80s.

IMO it’s one of the best data points we have. As I understand it, everyone on the ship was exposed, everyone was tested, we know exactly how many people became infected, and under close to ideal treatment conditions, there have been (so far) 4 fatalities of elderly patients. Yes, this doesn’t tell you what happens with less than ideal care (higher fatality rates), or under different populations (lower fatality rates)…

I came to say that the diamond princess is kind of an ideal case for getting a handle on things because it's a largish finite closedish population, kind of like why ecologists often love islands.

One thing that's puzzling to me though is even though the infected rate from the diamond princess is reported at 700+, the recovery rate is still reported at 10+. So what's going on with the other 690+ people? Are they still sick in a way they could still deteriorate? It's confusing because the cfr based on dead and recovered is still pretty high.

Again, though, the diamond princess is helping to clarify things, because nonreporting and nonpresenting aren't issues for the most part.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#423

Post by guneydas »

charlieflowers wrote: post #389
hiram112 wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. I read a similar comment from someone on another forum. If you're certain this will end up a pandemic, with almost everyone eventually catching it, your best move is to catch the virus as soon as possible, ensuring…

Or, hole up and wait for a vaccine.

"As of 2020, there is no cure or protective vaccine for SARS that has been shown to be both safe and effective in humans." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#424

Post by nswest23 »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

How on earth is this the top rated comment? You can't make up your own statistical measure for mortality rates for a novel virus unless you're an epidemiologist. Of course there is under-reporting of mild cases...there's a shortage of test kits!

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#425

Post by nswest23 »

Alex3917 wrote: post #252
CrazyStat wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the flip side, it's very likely that mild cases will never be reported, which in turn would decrease the mortality rate. Indeed. This calculation ignores severe underreporting of mild cases--for example, Johns Hopkins researchers (the same ones who made that map you linked to for data) estimated that only ~10% of cases in mainland China (mostly Wuhan at the time) were being reported [1]. That would put the morta…

> That would put the mortality rate at under 1%, which is close to the evidence we have from elsewhere (e.g. the Diamond Princess). Since it takes 3+ weeks to die from this illness, we're not going to know the fatality rate from the diamond princess for another month. And that's still going to be a lower bound since they'll all be getting medical care from often before they're even diagnosed.

We know the percentage of people who are in critical condition and it's very low.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#426

Post by derangedHorse »

mns wrote: post #204
nik_s wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If my original post gave off the impression of being conspiracy-theory-driven, I want to apologize, because that wasn't the intent. My original post aimed at clarifying that death rates in exponentially spreading diseases that have a lag between infection and possible recovery and death is a tricky topic, and that the numbers generally reported seem to not take this nuance into account. I think collecting accurate da…

Didn't want to make it sound like you are promoting a conspiracy, sorry, it's just that everyone treats the numbers as somehow manipulated. My point is that the current numbers are all that we have - we are mostly technical people here - looking at them, there is no obvious statistical anomaly to say that yes, China is hiding something from us. Maybe the numbers are not fully accurate, and it's too early to tell, but…

"looking at them, there is no obvious statistical anomaly to say that yes, China is hiding something from us"

Sure, but we wouldn't be able to find any statistical anomaly if China was hiding something because we simply don't have enough data ourselves to determine that.

I feel like your stance may be the opposite extreme of fear-mongering, which is downplaying the potential unreliability of data that many people have good reason to speculate about (as you might've already seen in this thread SARS cases were underreported).

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#427

Post by zachwill »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

Built a simple `PyMC3` model based on your comment: https://github.com/zachwill/covid-19

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#428

Post by real-hacker »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

Currently, it's better to overestimate the gravity of the situation, than to underestimate. Better to err on the right side. Panic is bad, but at least you get prepared.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#430

Post by mercer »

pjc50 wrote: post #224
mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

There does seem to be a section of punditry and commentators, internet and traditional media, who are absolutely salivating for a big dramatic disaster. A lot of people seem to enjoy the thought of doom. It's as if everyone's joined a doomsday cult, like the Millenium.

As well as the opposite, the "it's just a flu" person, which honestly I've not given much thought before and am morbidly fascinated by.
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