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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#251

Post by 0x8BADF00D »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

The infected might be terribly maimed for the rest of their life as well. Can you imagine if they develop COPD or some similar chronic inflammatory lung disease because of this?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#252

Post by Alex3917 »

CrazyStat wrote: post #157
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

> On the flip side, it's very likely that mild cases will never be reported, which in turn would decrease the mortality rate. Indeed. This calculation ignores severe underreporting of mild cases--for example, Johns Hopkins researchers (the same ones who made that map you linked to for data) estimated that only ~10% of cases in mainland China (mostly Wuhan at the time) were being reported [1]. That would put the morta…

> That would put the mortality rate at under 1%, which is close to the evidence we have from elsewhere (e.g. the Diamond Princess).

Since it takes 3+ weeks to die from this illness, we're not going to know the fatality rate from the diamond princess for another month. And that's still going to be a lower bound since they'll all be getting medical care from often before they're even diagnosed.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#253

Post by chefkoch »

jmiskovic wrote: post #176
zerkten wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. They could easily have had an undiagnosed underlying condition that made them more susceptible to complications. This is to be expected in places like Iran with severe limitations in their healthcare system. I…

Is it just me or is your comment really insensitive? I would think that about half of world has no better healthcare system than Iran.

Why would you think a country under severe sanctions can have a very good health care system?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#254

Post by ajsnigrutin »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

The problem is in the healthcare capacities.

I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3.

If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have that many hospital beds, doctors, respirators.. probably not even enough medicine (some test have shown that malaria medicine and aids medicine works on some people). You get thrown into an army tent or a school gym with many more ill people, and you get almost zero resources. Need a respirator? Sorry, only 5 available at that location, and are used on other people.. or kids.. or pregnant women... and you can just slowly suffocate.

China built a hospital in a couple of days. I don't think there's a country in EU that can do anything remotely fast as that.. we probably need 10 days just to discuss where to put the emergency tents, and even then we'd get protesters not wanting them there. Same probably in the USA.

We also don't have companies making respirators and other medical equipment. Large countries who do, are making them for their own hospitals (if they're not stuck in paperpushing hell with the government).

Basically, if there's a wide-spread epidemic, a lot of people will get really really fscked.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#255

Post by learc83 »

zaroth wrote: post #245
learc83 wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you said cruise ships skew much older than the general population, so this tells us very little about the actual mortality rate. All 4 people who died were in their 80s.

IMO it’s one of the best data points we have. As I understand it, everyone on the ship was exposed, everyone was tested, we know exactly how many people became infected, and under close to ideal treatment conditions, there have been (so far) 4 fatalities of elderly patients. Yes, this doesn’t tell you what happens with less than ideal care (higher fatality rates), or under different populations (lower fatality rates)…

>but it’s a world of difference from the 10% fatality rates being tossed around elsewhere in this thread.

I agree.

I misspoke when I said very little. I was taking issue with the OPs assertion that 0.5% was a best case mortality rate. I should have said it's closer to an upper bound assuming ideal treatment, since it looks like this is much worse for the elderly.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#256

Post by lurquer »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

>It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global drama everywhere, and this is not something that I would expect from Hackernews.

Being somewhat of a cynic, it doesn't surprise me to see it here. HackerNews posters apparently love thinking about global catastophes and societal discontinuities. Read the breathless posts warning of dire consequences arising from the tariffs on in China 24 months or so ago. The flurry of horrific predictions arising as a result of Brexit. The neverending hysteria about CO2, ocean warming, ocean acidification, the mass-extinction insects, etc....

Most posts to hackernews come from workers who are bored... they turn to HackerNews to read interesting articles. And, there is nothing more interesting than fantasizing about some event that would give them a reason not to go work the next day. It's a normal thing to do... back in my day, it was nuclear strikes and Soviet invasions ( "wolverines!!"). Nowadays it's viruses and CO2... (a poor substitute, in my opinion, for the much cooler angst about nuclear winter and the like... but, to each their own.)

And, whatever the cause celebre may be at the time, you can always count on posters getting really ticked off at skeptics and responding along the lines of, "You just don't get it! The science is clear! This time it's different!"

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#257

Post by ekianjo »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #254
mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

The problem is in the healthcare capacities. I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have…

Spot on. Medical facilities are not up to support in times of widespread epidemics. Which means most people would not get any treatment and you should expect mortality rate to increase over time as it becomes more widespread.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#258

Post by learc83 »

Alex3917 wrote: post #252
CrazyStat wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the flip side, it's very likely that mild cases will never be reported, which in turn would decrease the mortality rate. Indeed. This calculation ignores severe underreporting of mild cases--for example, Johns Hopkins researchers (the same ones who made that map you linked to for data) estimated that only ~10% of cases in mainland China (mostly Wuhan at the time) were being reported [1]. That would put the morta…

> That would put the mortality rate at under 1%, which is close to the evidence we have from elsewhere (e.g. the Diamond Princess). Since it takes 3+ weeks to die from this illness, we're not going to know the fatality rate from the diamond princess for another month. And that's still going to be a lower bound since they'll all be getting medical care from often before they're even diagnosed.

>And that's still going to be a lower bound since they'll all be getting medical care from often before they're even diagnosed.

It's not a lower bound because cruise ships skew much older than the general population. All 4 who have died so far have been in their 80s.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#259

Post by minikites »

lurquer wrote: post #256
mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

>It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global drama everywhere, and this is not something that I would expect from Hackernews. Being somewhat of a cynic, it doesn't surprise me to see it here. HackerNews posters apparently love thinking about global catastophes and societal discontinuities. Read the breathless posts warning of dire consequences arising from the tariffs on in China 24 months or so ago. T…

Complex society is more fragile than you think: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#260

Post by mensetmanusman »

billfruit wrote: post #202
nik_s wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If my original post gave off the impression of being conspiracy-theory-driven, I want to apologize, because that wasn't the intent. My original post aimed at clarifying that death rates in exponentially spreading diseases that have a lag between infection and possible recovery and death is a tricky topic, and that the numbers generally reported seem to not take this nuance into account. I think collecting accurate da…

Yet your post seemed to hint at willful manipulation of data, which isn't something for which there is reliable concrete evidence for, and which in my view is adding to the paranoia. The line of thinking for eg:, Chinese numbers are untrustworthy, WHO numbers are untrustworthy etc, is very frequently echoed by the western press, and even here in HN.

People’s mistrust of China data stems from the known manipulation of economic indicators by Chinese authorities. The running assumption is that this behavior would apply to virus outbreak data, but this is unproven.
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