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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#331

Post by learc83 »

wtvanhest wrote: post #249
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

5 people have died that were on the princess cruise out of 705 infected. At just over 1/2 a percent, it is more deadly than the flu, but not 2% and certainly not 7.8% The princess cruise gives us a crucial piece of information which is a fully tested population. 2 things to consider: 1) population is like older due to being a princess cruise which would increase death rate. 2) not everyone is cleared yet, so more dea…

Only 4 have died, and all 4 were in their 80s.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#332

Post by fragmede »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #254
mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

The problem is in the healthcare capacities. I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have…

I don't disagree with your position - if there's a wide-spread epidemic, things will go bad, especially as the healthcare system gets overwhelmed. But that's not a novel or interesting point of view, and I doubt many would disagree. So why go around inciting panic?

Lets try some other numbers. If 1% of the population gets infected, and 1% needs extra medical care, that's 200 people. If 0.1% of the population is infected and 0.1% of the population need extra medical care, that's... two people. That's not so scary, and I'm not going to slowly suffocate. (There's no need to threaten me with asphyxiation, thanks.) We don't have any reliable information, so any numbers used for "back of the envelope" math might as well be relating my birth date to star signs and be used to find my future lover, for all the basis in reality they ultimately have.

I mean, you're scared. I get it, I'm scared too. I feel powerless in the face of this epidemic and being told to wash my hands a bit more, and touch my face less only serves to reiterate my impotence. Is that where the thirst for disaster potential comes from? An addiction to the panic endorphins?

(I am genuinely curious, and am hopeful that mns' comment will stimulate commentary about the meta-topic.) (And apologies for singling you out personally, ajsnigrutin, the other sibling replies are of the same nature and yours was the comment I chose to reply to.)

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#333

Post by mzs »

scarmig wrote: post #142
Tenoke wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/infected) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. On the other hand, there are also a lot of infected who only have a mild version and are never checked and recorded, which swings it in the other direction. Edit: Seems like the parent post later edited their post to mention the above.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, all infections, mild to severe, have been identified. Out of ~800 infected, 4 have died, which suggests that with the best case scenario the mortality rate is 0.5%. This also should be read with the context that cruise ship passengers tend to be older. Also, that number will climb a bit. The biggest risk isn't the bare mortality rate when properly treated, but the actual mortality…

It will be very useful data but how many have recovered? We need to wait at least two more weeks.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#334

Post by chimprich »

lurquer wrote: post #256
mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

>It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global drama everywhere, and this is not something that I would expect from Hackernews. Being somewhat of a cynic, it doesn't surprise me to see it here. HackerNews posters apparently love thinking about global catastophes and societal discontinuities. Read the breathless posts warning of dire consequences arising from the tariffs on in China 24 months or so ago. T…

Conversely, there's a group of people who like to show off how sensible and level-headed they are by being able to rise above the concerns of other people. They do this by handwaving away problems rather than engaging with the evidence.

The threat of nuclear war was (and is) real.

The mass reduction of insects is well-documented.

The threat of rising CO2 levels is one of the most-studied phenomena in science.

> "You just don't get it! The science is clear! This time it's different!"

Actually, it's not necessarily different. There are historical precedents for viral pandemics. The flu pandemic of 1918 killed 50–100 million people.

That doesn't mean this outbreak will be on the same scale, but it's not unreasonable to be concerned.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#335

Post by partiallypro »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

The survival rate is also probably thrown off though because some countries have better trained health professionals. No one in the US (that made it to US care) has died as of yet. In other countries without advanced facilities available, the rates are much higher. If the disease hits Africa and more of the ME, the rate will go up. While in the US, and richer countries like Germany, etc the rate will probably be low.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#336

Post by partiallypro »

scarmig wrote: post #201
mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

My reasoning for thinking this is worthy of panic: I recently moved to China. The PRC has good numbers (internally) and knows more about COVID-19's severity and risk profile than anyone else. And, on the ground, the PRC is putting the entire country on what amounts to wartime footing (in a way that's unimaginable to most HN readers), to the point that it's willing to sacrifice a quarter or more worth of economic prod…

I have the polar opposite view, China is not transparent with their numbers, and their response is hamfisted because they aren't competent and a lot of it is theater (typical of communist regimes.) It is possible that in many years more people will die from cancer from their irresponsible spraying than the actual virus. Western countries are also traditionally cleaner, and things like "gutter grease" aren't common. I have much more faith in the west than hamfisted policies from China.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#337

Post by marcosdumay »

lucian1900 wrote: post #265
vonquant wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh let me see, perhaps it has something to do with China being a one-party state with a ripe history of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship. Just look at SARS for an example of where trusting the official information from China made for a terrible idea.

And the US isn't a two party state with a ripe history (and present) of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship? Your view of China is almost entirely defined by US media, owned by capitalists. Perhaps consider they have an incentive to lie.

There is a discontinuity there. A two party system is many orders of magnitude more reliable than a single party system, even if not ideal.

The US also has a much smaller history of hiding facts and persecuting the Press.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#338

Post by munkiefish »

mothsonasloth wrote: post #3
dannyw wrote: post #2

How much can we trust the data coming out of China?

We can't but it doesn't matter anymore, the data from South Korea, Italy and Japan will be the most interesting for the next week or so. Then I would imagine each country will be gathering a lot more data as it spreads further in another generation.

Indonesia on the other hand seems to have decided not to tell the world or their people how many cases there have been - when clearly they must have some by now.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#339

Post by wtvanhest »

learc83 wrote: post #331
wtvanhest wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5 people have died that were on the princess cruise out of 705 infected. At just over 1/2 a percent, it is more deadly than the flu, but not 2% and certainly not 7.8% The princess cruise gives us a crucial piece of information which is a fully tested population. 2 things to consider: 1) population is like older due to being a princess cruise which would increase death rate. 2) not everyone is cleared yet, so more dea…

Only 4 have died, and all 4 were in their 80s.

You are correct: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...

I must have remembered the wrong number.

4/705 = 0.5% (1/2 a percent), which is still pretty high vs the flu, but not 2% or 7.8% or whatever crazy numbers people are quoting.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#340

Post by mzs »

drclau wrote: post #90
sciinfo wrote: post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

There’s something off about Iran. According to Wikipedia [0], Spanish Flu killed a much higher percentage in Iran too, in comparison with the rest of the world: “The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). [...] In Iran, the mortality was very high: according to an estimate, between 902,400 and 2,431,000, or 8% to 22% of the total population died.” — source…

For the first time since the revolution Friday prayers have been cancelled in Tehran. They are still on in Qom.

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1233017138119659520

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