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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#401

Post by n0rbwah »

WalterBright wrote: post #43
FooHentai wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Containment is still desirable even in a scenario where this has spread to all countries and on-track to become endemic. Why? Because it buys time. If a vaccine can be developed, which is likely but certain to take some months, then you can inoculate the populace and end up in a situation where it's endemic-but-managed. If you don't contain, however, then you assuredly burn through whatever portion of your populace w…

> which is likely but certain to take some months The news today reported 12 to 18 months for mass availability of a vaccine.

There was an article about an experimental way of creating new vaccines that could potentially get it out faster.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-firs...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#402

Post by [deleted] »

paxys wrote: post #208
lqs469 wrote: post #60

80 years ago, in 1940, Tokyo hosted the Summer Olympics for the first time, but it was canceled due to the outbreak of WWII and Japan had invaded China. 80 years after, in 2020, Tokyo Summer Olympics could be canceled due to outbreak of coronavirus from China.

In 1940 it was "Screw you China" - Japan In 2020, it is "Screw you Japan" - China

[deleted]

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#403

Post by thom »

01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

I worry about the coming increase in home working where companies aren't prepared for it. What if this paints a picture of broadly lower productivity for the practice across the tech industry? Could this then be used as evidence against home working more widely for the long term?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#404

Post by brutt »

simonh wrote: post #285
asiachick wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

The point is that if doctors had been free to investigate and alert the existence of the disease very early on, it might have been contained to a small number of cases right from the start, and never gained any traction in the population in the first place. The first few weeks of an outbreak are absolutely crucial, and the Chinese authorities actively obstructed efforts to address the issue in that period precisely b…

It doesn't looks so. Chinese scientist did research and found that virus was originated outside of Wuhan. It just became wide spread in Wuhan. IMHO, it's from Koltsovo.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#405

Post by _-___________-_ »

knzhou wrote: post #257
_-___________-_ wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correlation isn't causation. Any number of things can slow the spread, including seasonal variation and importantly human behaviour changes.

Human behavior changes like... staying inside because of a quarantine? I fail to see any behavior change that could be more impactful than that.

Staying inside is pretty impactful, but washing hands regularly would be up there too.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#406

Post by _-___________-_ »

samastur wrote: post #355
_-___________-_ wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a magnitude more deadly Probably not. Case fatality rates don't accurately show the "deadliness" since many people have likely been infected but been asymptomatic or had mild illness that didn't cause them to seek medical advice. > significant long term health consequences for many who survive There is no evidence for that, and it doesn't make sense given the available data. Some number of people have long-term hea…

I agree that exact rates are difficult to determine, will change over time and one should not overreact, but there is plenty of evidence for what I said. If this virus would be just like flu, then Wuhan wouldn't have much problem coping.

If it was a brand new flu, to which people had no immunity, which was initially covered up and then largely "responded to" by crowding everyone who might possibly have been infected into overcrowded, shared quarantine centres where they are now virtually guaranteed to get it, I bet they would have the same problem coping.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#407

Post by _-___________-_ »

allovernow wrote: post #265
_-___________-_ wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon There's no evidence that you are remotely likely to catch COVID-19 by doing any of those things either.

You really need to keep up with the literature. A paper recently came out which says it can survive ten days at ambient temperature a on most plastic and steel surfaces. And others have reported it is aerosolized. It spreads through cough, sneeze, and breath. This one is different.

I'm keeping up with the literature just fine, thank you very much. Nothing is nearly as definite as your comment would suggest.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#409

Post by jmnicolas »

wklauss wrote: post #334
jmnicolas wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> modulo the economic impact This is a BIG modulo, China alone was already a disaster but now that we can see the rest of the world will be hit, the economic consequences will be disastrous. 2008 was a walk in the park compared to what may happen.

> the economic consequences will be disastrous. I seriously doubt it will. Once the panic subdues, things will go back to pretty much normal. Flu kills a lot of people every year without serious effects on the worldwide economy. You'll need a mortality rate significantly higher to make a dent in global supply and demand. Of course panic is the key word here. If governments impose severe movement restrictions it could…

I know of 2 European car manufacturers that can't build certain cars because they don't have parts from China (Peugeot 208 and Fiat 500L).

This is just a small example, but every industry is hit.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#410

Post by _-___________-_ »

mrb wrote: post #273
_-___________-_ wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon There's no evidence that you are remotely likely to catch COVID-19 by doing any of those things either.

Then why is China shutting down public transports, telling people to stay home, and cancelling public events? Hmm?

You could ask the same of many of the responses. All of your examples are "strong" responses that reassure the public, like the flight restrictions which public health experts have argued against. By the way, public transport is, and has continuously been, running in most cities in China, and people in many cities (I have direct knowledge of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai) are now slowly returning to normal life.
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