For anyone looking for more, try the subreddits /r/Covid19 (scientific/medical info), /r/CoronaVirus (maintstream news), and /r/China_Flu (social posts).
I’d rather get the damn virus than go back to reddit.
Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
221–230 of 840 posts
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#222I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…
Non-authoritarian governments quarantine areas after natural disasters / weather events. No reason to think a pandemic couldn't trigger an analogous response, if it's within the public interest.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
Multiple doctors in their late 20s or early 30s have died from the coronavirus. If you are under 18 and have good health, then you are pretty safe.
I've been trying to find mortality rates for the very young. Infants and toddlers. I haven't been finding much information. Is this being reported? Having twins under a year at home has somehow managed to become an even more stressful event...
I think the reported rate is 0, with contamination rates being low as well.
It seems that currently there are more reasons to be worried for your parents than for your kids.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
Multiple doctors in their late 20s or early 30s have died from the coronavirus. If you are under 18 and have good health, then you are pretty safe.
I've been trying to find mortality rates for the very young. Infants and toddlers. I haven't been finding much information. Is this being reported? Having twins under a year at home has somehow managed to become an even more stressful event...
There have been a handful of infections but no fatalities. This virus is essentially a minor cold in young people.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#225I wonder how long until other international events start to be closed? I live almost trackside at a formula 1 event in a few weeks and I'm not exactly enthusiastic about people coming in from all over the world and cramming onto the public transport while they're drunk and sweaty. It probably can't be contained anyway but large international events could cause some huge spikes in transmission.
Many major exhibitors are avoiding trade shows at least in the gaming industry, from what I've seen. Not the same as the show being cancelled but you can only have so many no-shows before it's the same in practice.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#226It will be cancelled. Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers between 40 and 70% world adult population will be infected in one year and numbers of deaths will be between 30 and 150 million if their predictions are correct and china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Read the threads from their twitters, the situation is much much wors…
A lot of the links you provide have alarmist titles and big claims and confusing evidence. Which is strange since the twitter authors are clearly well educated virologists/epidemiologists. But the style of language makes it difficult for me to trust what they are saying. So far I am sticking to research papers and This Week In Virology [0], where there is a lot less dramatic clickbait language and a lot more skeptica…
> Which is strange since the twitter authors are clearly well educated virologists/epidemiologists.
So when educated virologists/epidemiologists put alarming titles you find it strange, not concerning or alarming ?
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.
COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.
> boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon
There's no evidence that you are remotely likely to catch COVID-19 by doing any of those things either.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.
”COVID-19 is unlike anything before” It’s almost exactly like every other respiratory virus, except that the case fatality estimates for old and sick people are higher. There’s nothing mechanistically new about the infections we’re seeing. It’s a pretty bog-standard respiratory virus, in terms of its transmission and overall virulence. ”But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significan…
How do you know that it's just fatalities in old and sick? If that's the case, I don't understand why many younger people in Wuhan are dying including the whistle blower doctor who was only 33 years old. We don't even know what the disease will do in terms of long term damage to survivors or the possibility of poor immunity and reinfection. I haven't seen any good statistics on the fatality rate vs age.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#229> Japan’s leaders are so out of touch with the lives of ordinary people that they seem genuinely uninterested in their plight. That, in turn, allows an entire bureaucracy to wallow in denial, even over a crisis like the coronavirus outbreak and just a few months away from the Olympics. [] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan...
Similarly, the mayor of Boston chastised Sony for cancelling its PAX East appearance, and accused Sony of supporting bigotry. The bureaucratic disconnect is universal.
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-02-24-boston-may...
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.
Yes, because it infects so many millions. Covid-19 right now looks a magnitude more deadly with significant long term health consequences for many who survive.
> a magnitude more deadly
Probably not. Case fatality rates don't accurately show the "deadliness" since many people have likely been infected but been asymptomatic or had mild illness that didn't cause them to seek medical advice.
> significant long term health consequences for many who survive
There is no evidence for that, and it doesn't make sense given the available data. Some number of people have long-term health consequences, and if you only compare that number to the number of people who went to hospital with serious illness, you might see a high percentage, but that's a huge distortion of reality.