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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#191

Post by greatpatton »

kenneth wrote: post #173
DocG wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand your point, but I think that is not going to be the case. As I understood, these viruses like mild climates. All souther countries are safer, in a way that virus can't survive for too long. And soon when the summer heat will reach China, the virus will whither there also. Edit - some kind of source - https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/hot-climate-...

The virus is spreading just fine in warmer climates like Singapore. You can't make that assumption.

This virus should love the cold AC climate of Singapore.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#193

Post by greendesk »

rococode wrote: post #125
jankotek wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you tell me in what way authoritatian countries (aka China) handles this situation better? Italy closed 50k people into quarantine, government talks about military and EU was deciding about closing borders. All of this days after confirmed cases. I am sure officials would have no trouble to isolate major city. China has many internal problems, we just do not see them. Government refuses foreign doctors. If cris…

Just my opinion, of course, but I guess one very simple way I think about it is, a government that expends a lot of effort controlling its people even in normal times is naturally better equipped to do so than a government that generally encourages individualism and freedom among its population. For example, North Korea reportedly executed a guy for breaking quarantine [1]. China may not be nearly as extreme, but the…

I believe you miss some crucial information in your argument. An administration which controls tightly a population must appear to be correct. The administration must make the perception its plans are infallible.

It is the perception that the administration’s plans and officials are infallible that it is after. Not the actual actions.

An administration which can confront when its officials can do wrong, which can act on errors instead of hiding them can do well. The perception of its actions take effort and steps to explain.

The reference on such institutions is outside the scope of the current comment. When I started writing, I realised it has to be a very long.

But my opinion is that democratic countries will do well. We might hear more, but their problems will be less. I used to live in an authoritative nation, so there is a difference between the information and the common communication on problems.

Check Hayeks’ writings to see how such communication becomes controlled by marketing ‘authoritative plans’

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#194

Post by jaynetics »

nitwit005 wrote: post #189
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

While I appreciate the attempt, I have some suspicion that none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back on the event in a year or two. I get the distinct feeling that many of these efforts are more about reassuring the public, than any real confidence that they can limit the spread.

Well it has clearly slowed the spread in China. You couldn't cover up an exponentially growing death rate forever. Of course, it might not prevent everyone getting infected in the long run, but there might still be hospital beds available for the worst cases if it is stretched out enough.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#195

Post by samastur »

nitwit005 wrote: post #189
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

While I appreciate the attempt, I have some suspicion that none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back on the event in a year or two. I get the distinct feeling that many of these efforts are more about reassuring the public, than any real confidence that they can limit the spread.

The real reason, I think, for quarantines is to buy time for preparations and spread out infections to prevent overwhelming the health system. PR is certainly important for government as well, but I don't think it is much for experts working in public health field that argue for much of the same.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#196

Post by didericis »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising.

China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their extreme quarantine efforts happened more than a month and a half after the first case was detected, well after it was too late to effectively contain, and only when covering up the situation proved impossible. The government sponsored a 100,000 person banquet with shared plates 3 miles from the epicenter with people who travelled to get there/would travel back while it was arresting doctors and media reporters for talking about the virus. If major sectors in freer countries weren't shut down until weeks after it spreads, it would be an improvement over China.

Here is a succinct summary of the timeline: https://youtu.be/hSIt496d82s?t=62

Last time I checked they were still barring members of the CDC from going into China to help asses the situation. Crucial information such as mortality rate and recovery rate are only being discovered now, as the numbers from China are not accurate.

This virus appears to be something any government would have difficulty containing due to the long incubation period, and some of the false statistics coming out of China are simply a result of a system that has become overwhelmed. Any system in a similar situation as the Chinese now find themselves in would have trouble dealing with this, and I think it may have reached currently levels even with a more transparent system that tried to contain it earlier, but I heavily disagree with your statement. They were extremely irresponsible about early containment during the crucial period when containment had the best chance of working.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#197

Post by samastur »

lisper wrote: post #158
nostromo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

Yes, because it infects so many millions. Covid-19 right now looks a magnitude more deadly with significant long term health consequences for many who survive.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#199

Post by watwut »

lisper wrote: post #158
nostromo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

Mortality of flu is over 0.1%, with coronavirus it is over 2%. And flu has shorter incubation time. That is massive difference.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#200

Post by JimDabell »

jankotek wrote: post #116
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Could you tell me in what way authoritatian countries (aka China) handles this situation better? Italy closed 50k people into quarantine, government talks about military and EU was deciding about closing borders. All of this days after confirmed cases. I am sure officials would have no trouble to isolate major city. China has many internal problems, we just do not see them. Government refuses foreign doctors. If cris…

> Could you tell me in what way authoritatian countries (aka China) handles this situation better?

Singapore is a pretty authoritarian country and until recently had the most cases outside of China. Now most infected people in Singapore have recovered and other countries have more infected people.

WHO 'very impressed' with Singapore's COVID-19 response: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-ver...

Singapore has ‘near-perfect’ coronavirus detection, Harvard study says: https://www.businessinsider.sg/singapore-has-near-perfect-co...

> I think US is best positioned to handle this well.

A lot of people in the USA try to avoid visiting the doctor because they can't afford it. That single factor alone puts the USA at a massive disadvantage.

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