231–240 of 840 posts
Wow, I've been reading Axios as my primary news source for years - first time I've seen it linked on HN, though! I highly recommend it to other people here. The reporting tends to be smart and to the point, their UI/UX is smooth and modern, and their ads tend to be more subtle than similar news sites.
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This is a virus. Antibiotics are for bacterial diseases
I understand that. But I'm not talking about Coronavirus in particular but the threat of a pandemic in the age of antibiotics. This one might be a virus but past pandemics like the Black Plague were bacterial in nature.
I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…
Living in Tokyo and just returned from Seoul yesterday. It's striking how differently the countries are handling this issue. Korea is pretty much on lockdown -- the government and the population are being quite proactive. Masks everywhere, thermal guns at junctions with high human traffic. Water fountains shut down, etc. Even the airport staff at the eateries were undergoing temperature checks before interacting with…
It’s mostly foreigners I see walking around without masks now, but I agree it’s still ramping up. I honestly don’t see the US getting close to this level of prevention, so if it fails here it’s going to be devastating there.
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> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…
> Last time I checked they were still barring members of the CDC from going into China to help asses the situation. I checked and the WHO team led by a Canadian epidemiologist has been working in China for more than two weeks, since Feb 10. I fail to see why they are obligated to allow in a team from a nation that’s been openly hostile for a long time just because they asked and used the word “help”. Sounds like arro…
And in this case it'd be justified. You're talking about the rest of the world at stake. This is no place for cover-ups and minimization. Transparency is critical.
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Your base case scenario should be that this will be globally widespread. The tipping point was when Iran became an epicenter. This is problematic because of its porous borders with countries with weak government. The good news is the virus is not too risky for an individual, excepting those who are old and with pre-existing conditions. The bad news is that there will likely be a lot of deaths in aggregate, globally.…
The biggest impact will be on global supply chains. Also paints into sharp contrast our over reliance on China. A side project I'm working on uses a key component from a Chinese manufacturer. Their factory has been shut indefinitely and we are 40 days behind schedule. My rep told me that while they've been working on the marketing/tech side of things from home, the factory can't open since workers are simply refusing…
The only real uncertainty at this point is if the HN/reddit fever-dream scenario of overwhelmed hospitals plays out, outside of Wuhan.
So far, it has not.
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Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.
Or mosquitoes and the malaria they spread... Malaria was responsible 405,000 deaths globally in 2018 according to [0]. [0] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-m...
I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…
I also will add a note of admiration for how the people of China have handled this. Their backbreaking work and sacrifice has probably slowed the spread by weeks. You can blame the authorities for not acting sooner, but it's kind of difficult to react to a killer virus until it starts to kill people and by then the horse has left the barn. I think slowing the spread is the best we can hope for now. The main problem i…
"Do Your Part: Work From Home!"
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While I appreciate the attempt, I have some suspicion that none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back on the event in a year or two. I get the distinct feeling that many of these efforts are more about reassuring the public, than any real confidence that they can limit the spread.
Well it has clearly slowed the spread in China. You couldn't cover up an exponentially growing death rate forever. Of course, it might not prevent everyone getting infected in the long run, but there might still be hospital beds available for the worst cases if it is stretched out enough.
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> Last time I checked they were still barring members of the CDC from going into China to help asses the situation. I checked and the WHO team led by a Canadian epidemiologist has been working in China for more than two weeks, since Feb 10. I fail to see why they are obligated to allow in a team from a nation that’s been openly hostile for a long time just because they asked and used the word “help”. Sounds like arro…
This is not an event for petty emotions. Also in high likelihood those who are there on behalf of the CDC are keeping quiet in order not to be kicked out. But you bet there's espionage going on. The Chinese government doesn't mess around. And in this case it'd be justified. You're talking about the rest of the world at stake. This is no place for cover-ups and minimization. Transparency is critical.
If only “openly hostile” was limited to “petty emotions” that can be waved away.
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I can understand your point, but I think that is not going to be the case. As I understood, these viruses like mild climates. All souther countries are safer, in a way that virus can't survive for too long. And soon when the summer heat will reach China, the virus will whither there also. Edit - some kind of source - https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/hot-climate-...
The virus is spreading just fine in warmer climates like Singapore. You can't make that assumption.