One thing that's not being noted is that the disease has almost 1 in 500 mortality rate for under 40.
We all have family, etc. over 70 though.
I don't.
Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
361–370 of 840 posts
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#362Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or mosquitoes and the malaria they spread... Malaria was responsible 405,000 deaths globally in 2018 according to [0]. [0] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-m...
How many people do you know with malaria? It's a tropical region disease. In a pandemic of Covid-19, it is going to affect people all over the world in every region.
> It's a tropical region disease
Europe and the U.S. used to have Malaria. The name -- bad air -- is Latin, the Romans thought it originated from bad swamp air. Shakespeare mentioned it time and time again in his plays.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#363The European football cup is looking like it will be canceled as well.
Any news source on this? UEFA seems to be saying there is no chance of cancelling the Cup... which I find believable, as the governing bodies for the various soccer leagues and competitions tend to be more money-hungry than other sports. Edit: grammar.
given the importance of football (economic but mainly bc public entertainment #1) i expect it to take place
* in empty stadiums
* players and staff are waived to travel even when quarantine in place
but mostly bc the virus should hopefully succumb to warm weather as the cup is in summertime
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#364A friend of mine who worked for defense creating viruses is convinced it's man made because of the way the virus is structured. Whether it's true or not. It's an interesting case, and I wonder why no one is writing about this possibilty in the media. Those ideas are quickly dismissed as crazy conspiracy theory. Where every big government is actively working on creating viruses for both defense and offense. Especially…
Virologists seem pretty happy to say that the virus is not man made. [0] It is amazing to me the crazy theories circulating about this virus. Does anyone remember similar stories from Zika or Ebola 2015 outbreaks? 0. http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-ori...
> Does anyone remember similar stories from Zika or Ebola 2015 outbreaks?
Yes, lot of similar ones.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#365Earlier quoted context omitted.
Completely speculating here but this specific case sounds like a bad luck situation in which the family in question had an extreme genetic susceptibility to suffering the virus at its worst. As other comments have pointed out (and the data so far seems to back) the vast majority 81%+ of cases are fairly mild or even asymptomatic and the elderly are those who suffer the higher 2%+ mortality rates (based on what I've r…
if you give a million monkeys a typewriter and wait a million years, you're bound to get all works of Shakespeare by chance alone. yes, bad luck, but the fact it happened illustrates the scale.
No, I think this only applies to an infinite amount of monkeys or you wait an infinitely long time.
Infinite != million years.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#366Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Look at Italy right now. > Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Sure, but this has nothing to do with authoritarian states vs democracy. You'll find a ton of authoritarian states doing exactly the same…
Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it. When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread, they will question the m…
slowing down the virus is required while hospital capacity is being scaled up.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#367Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Look at Italy right now. > Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Sure, but this has nothing to do with authoritarian states vs democracy. You'll find a ton of authoritarian states doing exactly the same…
Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it. When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread, they will question the m…
> Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak.
Here is the other thing with Italy: differently from other neighbor countries, they have been testing people without symptoms.
Numbers: until February the 24th, Italy performed ~8500 tests (mostly on people without symptoms, but that were in contact with confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected patients), while UK did ~6500 (focused on people with influenza-like symptoms), Germany ~1000 and France ~500.
This is better from a safety point of view (you get to discover all problematic patients earlier and you can quarantine them before they spread the infection even more). But is makes "your stats look worse" (cit. The wire) because now you look like the epicenter of the infection.
Guess what? The testing method has now been changed ("aligned") to what the other countries are doing, so that the numbers do not look that much worse.
Source: https://www.ilpost.it/2020/02/25/tamponi-coronavirus-italia-...
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#368I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…
How can entire families be wiped out? Hard to get a sense of how deadly this virus is.
I personally don't think authoritarianism is an obvious benefit here. Authoritarianism is part of the reason they got into trouble in the first place.
It also leads to people covering up because of fear. That is the worst thing you can do in this situation.
Chinese cooperation with civil society is also really bad. There is so much distrust that this can end up hampering their response.
They may end up killing more people through brutal quarantine than the virus kills.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#369Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, because it infects so many millions. Covid-19 right now looks a magnitude more deadly with significant long term health consequences for many who survive.
> a magnitude more deadly Probably not. Case fatality rates don't accurately show the "deadliness" since many people have likely been infected but been asymptomatic or had mild illness that didn't cause them to seek medical advice. > significant long term health consequences for many who survive There is no evidence for that, and it doesn't make sense given the available data. Some number of people have long-term hea…
Agree, I hate to quote Trump, but there seems to be many “doomers” among us, who seem to take some kind of pleasure in entertaining the idea that we are in the middle of some big disaster. For the moment the numbers I see (mentioned in my other post [1]) seem to support something slightly worse than the common flu, but nothing that should be really concerning.
Also the comparison to the Spanish flu often ignores the fact that we are way better equipped to deal with the symptoms than in 1918.
Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained
#370Earlier quoted context omitted.
"more than a month and a half after the first case was detected, " The 'first case' of what exactly though? Nobody knew it's effects, transmissibility, etc. etc.. I actually believe that even if said doctors were not sanctioned, not much would have really changed. I think the delay to the authoritarian clamp-down would have been roughly the same. In the West, we have responsible actors but they're neither entirely kn…
Not sure I’d lump Malaysia in with this lot but otherwise I agree. No cases on Indonesia? No chance
No confirmed cases, that is. The thing is, that Indonesia mostly doesn't have the means to detect the disease, or only in specialized labs.
Also, if no "known" cases are present in a specific country, the awareness to check for specific symptoms is probably lower.
That's also the curious thing about why usually the detection rate in a country rises fast in the beginning - when the first infected patient has been found, as by then doctors start to specifically test for the virus.