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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#241

Post by jacquesm »

nednar wrote: post #230
jacquesm wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Infection rate in China is going down and the way they keep changing their criteria makes it hard to find continuity in the numbers. Elsewhere it is still rising.

Actually the changes in China are the reason why the number increased from 40k+ to 60k+ wasn't it?

That caused the jump. But those cases were there all along, just not reported. Now they have - again - changed the criteria and made them more stringent resulting in an apparent drop in the number of cases.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#242

Post by justin66 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #232
justin66 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was this response intended for a different comment? Regardless, I don't get the feeling you're overly familiar with what's going on in China or in this comment thread...

I am very familiar with what is going on in China. It isn't Mad Max and people aren't starving.

Why do you keep referencing Mad Max?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#243

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

ilkan wrote: post #186
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #11

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

>with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your tone, but I'm not so cavalier about performing solo heavy-duty, months-long care of parents & grandparents and the possible loss of company senior execs/mentors and coworkers over 30.

> Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your tone

Perhaps you are. See my other comments on the subject e.g. here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22397271. I also think you are exaggerating the risks when you say "coworkers over thirty", considering death rates at thirty are still well below one percent of those ill enough to go to the hospital and get tested. That sort of language is exactly what I was reacting against in my comment.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#244

Post by SahAssar »

carbocation wrote: post #36
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

I think there is a real need to understand how much of a vector our phone screens are. People touch their phones, wash their hands, and then touch their phones again.

Isn't this true for anything that you regularly touch but don't regularly wash? Like your wallet, your keys, your headphones, your car steeringwheel and on and on.

Why single out the phone?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#245

Post by Sharlin »

justinclift wrote: post #202
SahAssar wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure you are kidding, but for the benefit of future readers: > Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

It really needs an "... or corruption" appended to the end. ;)

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by a coordination problem"

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#246

Post by Fjolsvith »

Frost1x wrote: post #224
dkarl wrote: post #140

The article becomes much less edgy if you know what the authorities are actually saying. For example, the American CDC, in USA Today[1]: "Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Friday that U.S. health officials are preparing for the coronavirus to become a pandemic." "'We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but i…

Following a few comments from experts in the field and looking at some of the data being presented, it's fairly obvious this pandemic case was reasonably high. There are of course lots of unknowns models used can't account for but that's no reason to discard the potential risk entirely. Keep in mind, many of these decisions to avoid "pandemic" talk try to take most holistic views in regards to public safety/health. T…

I also bought 3 months supplies of Emergen-C, Mucinex, Robitussin, and Alka-Seltzer orange and green Cold and Flu pills.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#247

Post by jacquesm »

Freak_NL wrote: post #160
dbcurtis wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the telephone sanitizers left on the B arc.

That was another planet in another time. We (Earth) are the descendants of the B arc.

Ark.

Besides that, I wonder how many people missed that bit of circular reasoning in thhg.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#248

Post by SahAssar »

justinclift wrote: post #202
SahAssar wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure you are kidding, but for the benefit of future readers: > Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

It really needs an "... or corruption" appended to the end. ;)

I find it hard to think of cases of corruption that are not rooted in malice.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#249

Post by big_chungus »

Frost1x wrote: post #224
dkarl wrote: post #140

The article becomes much less edgy if you know what the authorities are actually saying. For example, the American CDC, in USA Today[1]: "Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Friday that U.S. health officials are preparing for the coronavirus to become a pandemic." "'We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but i…

Following a few comments from experts in the field and looking at some of the data being presented, it's fairly obvious this pandemic case was reasonably high. There are of course lots of unknowns models used can't account for but that's no reason to discard the potential risk entirely. Keep in mind, many of these decisions to avoid "pandemic" talk try to take most holistic views in regards to public safety/health. T…

> At the same time you shouldn't assume experts, the media, etc. are somehow mass conspiring against your health/safety. Assessments are probably reasonable to follow.

True, but it's also not their job to work for my personal benefit. Mine is. Their job is to do the greatest good for the greatest number, but what is good for the most people is not always good for me. My job is to keep myself and my family safe, and I don't trust bureaucrats enough to make the call that I have to lose out for the "greater good".

All that aside, at least according to China, the mortality rates aren't all that high (a few percent). We'll see what happens elsewhere, but I don't think there's reason to panic yet.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#250

Post by smichel17 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #234
icegreentea2 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US gov (see: https://www.ready.gov/pandemic and https://cchealth.org/pandemic-flu/pdf/individuals_and_famili... ) frequently tell you to stockpile some amount. The point of this stockpile isn't to deal with total long-term breakdown. They're not telling you to get 2 weeks supply because they think there will be no food available for 2 weeks. They're telling you to build up a supply to help ease the very supply di…

We are always "before a pandemic"... so is the advice to always have 2 weeks of food and water stocked? Only in the USA... Here in the UK the advice is "keep calm and carry on, and wash your hands".

I recently decided to clean out my freezer and pantry, just to clean out some of their longer-lived residents. It took me about 2 weeks.

Maybe it is a USA-only thing, but I think also you may be overestimating how much food is in a 2 week supply.

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