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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

211–220 of 394 posts

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do not tell people to stock up on food. This is how you create runs on supermarkets and panic. No. Runs on supplies generally happen well after it becomes desperately obvious that the people advising preparation measures be taken were correct. The Costcos and Walmarts of the world, and their suppliers, can very easily absorb the bump in food demand from the very few who actually plan ahead. > If the situation becom…

I find it interesting that China has managed to keep things organised in Wuhan and throughout the country but American commenters on HN seem to expect that in their country it would be Mad Max.

Was this response intended for a different comment? Regardless, I don't get the feeling you're overly familiar with what's going on in China or in this comment thread...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#212
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plans the US already has for a flu pandemic should mostly carry over, no? COVID is probably worse than the seasonal flu, but it's not outside the reasonable range of what a flu pandemic could do.

Do 29 year old doctors typically die from the flu?

Yes. Old and very young people are typically more susceptible, but 29 year olds can die from even the seasonal flu, and the potential that young people can be atypically susceptible to a pandemic is well-known.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#213
post #64

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

> - Get extra prescription medicine now if you might need it I hate this advice. It's not "wrong," in the sense that technically it would be a good thing to do, but it's also so wrong that it transcends categories of right and wrong. Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early. And if it did, your insurance wouldn't pay for it - which means paying sticker price, which means ... well,…

Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early.

I hate your advice, seriously. You can't speak for every person and every prescription. You are talking people out of taking action when you are outright wrong for some, if not most, situations. Literally yesterday just got an extra 30-day subscription for a handful of prescriptions. Not for coronavirus, but because we are planning to be visiting family in Europe next month. Fingers crossed that travel won't be disrupted.

If you are on a critical medication, talk to your doctor and insurance company. You can probably work it out.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#214
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two observations: 1. There isn't a single media (often, when your tribe is against another, you view the opposition as monolithic rather than a spectrum composed of different viewpoints) 2. And they're not insane, editors and social media algorithms are rational and reacting to reader incentives (but it is "insane" to mistake media sources for a rational human, because most media is about covering extreme events[1])…

> There isn't a single media (often, when your tribe is against another, you view the opposition as monolithic rather than a spectrum composed of different viewpoints) The overwhelming majority of the media that people consume in the U.S. is created by the same handful of companies, which each have roughly the same rules about what kinds of stories you're allowed or not allowed to publish. Having worked at one, I can…

Great point. Would you argue the media landscape is the way it is due to incentives these select organizations face or the monopolistic nature of these companies?

Separately, you note the high concentration of media creation, but don't speak to the even higher concentration of media distribution (e.g., social media), which likely has its own influence on what is created.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's not outside the reasonable range of what a flu pandemic could do. By about 3-4 orders of magnitude, it is. The flu tends to kill about 60K people annually and most of those are old or very young or already had a compromised immune system. This is with the figures known so far and before there is a vaccine around 2-3%. If left unchecked it would overwhelm available health care capacity pretty quickly. The Chine…

A flu pandemic, in official terminology, is a different and more severe thing than the seasonal flu. The government regularly plans for such outbreaks and isn't afraid to spend a billion dollars when needed; for example, about 5 years ago they preemptively struck against bird flu by obliterating poultry farms at government expense. (And that one didn't even affect humans!) I don't think you're getting your numbers fr…

Sorry, dropped a '0' there. My bad. Edited.

Also, 'pandemic' is just about the geographic spread, not about the mortality or the rate of infection.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#216
post #103
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like the people who thought there would be a supply disruption were right, and the people who didn't see it coming are blaming the people who did see it coming.

No, sounds like there wasn't any "supply disruption", rather a "demand excess" from people who thought there might be one. Those are different things. Bill Gates could cause a potato shortage if he started buying up all the potatoes in America. But that wouldn't be a supply disruption if farmers are still growing potatoes at the usual rate.

We can argue about the exact definition of the word "supply", but the bottom line is that when the suppliers are no longer capable of providing goods to stores, it's kind of pedantic to say "it's not a supply disruption!".

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#217

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

Disclaimer: I am not a healthcare expert. You might care to read from those who are: https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

2019-nCoV is a viral disease spread by droplets and close physical contact, possibly by contaminated fluids, including human waste (sewage). Literature I've seen suggests relatively close prolonged contact is necessary -- hours around an infected individual. There've been some "super spreaders", including apparently a woman within a South Korean church, who've infected numerous other individuals.

There is no vaccine or effective curative treatment. Medical treatment is currently limited to diagnosis, and treating symptoms.

At an epidemiological level, the outbreak will be halted when the level of transmission (R value) of the disease falls below 1: one infected individual on average infects fewer than one other additional persons. The outbreak will continue for some time after this, with occasional new cases, but the total new cases should fall.

Halting transmission means disrupting transmission vectors:

- Less person-to-person contact.

- Less high-risk contact.

- Reduced risk of exposure through contacts.

Keeping yourself and the things you touch clean is the single most effective thing you can do.

Soap and water are a low-tech effective mechanism. Wash your hands. Often.

Alcohol-based hand-sanitizers work.

Antibacterial sterilisers are not effective against 2019-nCoV, though may reduce risks of secondary / opportunistic infections.

Soap, detergent, or bleach sterilisers on high-contact surfaces should be useful. Taps, light switches, door handles, elevator buttons, toilet handles, counters, keyboards, touch devices.

Note that many modern devices disinfect poorly if at all. Many are harmed by water. Consider, e.g., keyboard covers if necessary.

Barrier protections such as gloves, masks, or eye protection may be useful if:

- You cannot avoid touching possibly-contaminated surfaces, e.g., shopping trolleys, on public transit. Discard gloves and masks after the exposure episode, dispose as hazardous waste, and wash hands after removal.

- You are or may be infected yourself, to avoid infecting others.

- You're assiting others who are or may be infected (family, friends, neighbours, etc.).

Masks and gloves should not be worn as a matter of course (e.g., around the home) so long as there's little risk of infection.

Be generally aware that an epidemic may be declared where you are, and what the implications are likely to be.

That includes several weeks of reduced transport, possibly including long-range transport. Schools and businesses may be closed. Medical services may be overextended.

Workplaces should make contingency plans for remote work or possible shutdowns, as well as assess and implement cleaning procedures.

If you have not yet had a flu shot get one now. Not because it will prevent 2019-nCoV infection, but because 1) you don't want to be getting sick with something else in an epidemic and 2) you'll reduce load on medical services and risk of nosocomial infection through healthcare services.

(I've been fighting with close family and friends on this point -- idiotically stubborn individuals are an exceedingly unfortunate and frustrating reality. The elderly, uneducated, and or mentally handicaped (Parkinsons or other conditions) may be especially resistant to sensible preventive actions.)

Consider changes to routines (e.g., work, school, socialising, religious worship, fitness or gym) in the event of a local outbreak. Preparing to minimise transmission risk will be useful. Do so for others in your household as well (partners, children, parents, housemates).

Get in touch with neighbours and have a mutual support plan in effect. Buying supplies for someone who's sick is low-risk, but will make their recovery far easier.

Overall severity for most people is low, deaths outside China have been reassuringly low. The worst places for the outbreak seem to be those with poor public infrastructures, public health, general healthcare, and institutional trust. Unfortunately, the US has been trending in the wrong direction on all these measures, but in large part remains among the more prepared countries. Countries lacking these traits, having poor communications and public health, and cold, dry conditions are most at risk. North Korea has been on my watchlist since early in the outbreak, and the lack of any case reports seems improbably accurate. Iran's outbreak may be concerning.

China's containment efforts seem generally to have been working well, with a few possible exceptions. Prison outbreaks are among the more troubling notes in recent news.

Coronavirus generally thrives in cold and dry conditions, which should become far less prevalent as Northern hemisphere spring and summer arrive. To that extent the epidemic being self-limiting is likely.

Second-order effects, including disinformation and panic, are all but certain to be the most severe disruptions anyone will personally experience. Global economic and supply-chain shocks are possible, though if handled sensible, not a tremendous risk. Money doesn't grow on trees, it's easier to come by than that: central banks can inject it at will.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#218

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

Do not tell people to stock up on food. There is no need and this is how you create runs on supermarkets and panic. If the situation becomes severe enough for this to become a problem, this will be organised by authorities. Keep calm, follow basic hygiene, and be ready to work from home at short notice. Maybe don't travel unless you have to. This is not the end of the world and the risk is low. Change course only if…

The US gov (see: https://www.ready.gov/pandemic and https://cchealth.org/pandemic-flu/pdf/individuals_and_famili...) frequently tell you to stockpile some amount.

The point of this stockpile isn't to deal with total long-term breakdown. They're not telling you to get 2 weeks supply because they think there will be no food available for 2 weeks. They're telling you to build up a supply to help ease the very supply distribution activities that you're saying will happen. The more supply buffers that exist in individual households, the more easily authorities and organize and distribute supply.

But you're right, it's not the end of the world.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#219
post #64

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

> - Get extra prescription medicine now if you might need it I hate this advice. It's not "wrong," in the sense that technically it would be a good thing to do, but it's also so wrong that it transcends categories of right and wrong. Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early. And if it did, your insurance wouldn't pay for it - which means paying sticker price, which means ... well,…

If your prescription medicine isn’t a scheduled substance you can get it in advance, usually.
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