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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#31

Post by dis-sys »

patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

I have:

1. n95 masks, e.g. 50 of them. technically, each mask can only last several hours

2. UVC light for cleaning up used n95 masks so they can last a few days each

3. protective eyeglasses if you need to visit hospital for any reason in the next few months

4. ethanol (not for your masks)

5. medical gloves

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#32

Post by patagonicus »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #24
patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

> As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: Be careful. Comment sections tend to attract overconfident armchair experts rather than professional advice. This is a forum where technology people congregate, not virologists. You may get repeated advice about general prepper techniques, but in my experience the mainstream prepper types can be over focused on unlikely doomsday scenarios instea…

Of course, I'm not going to treat anything here as the absolute truth, but I'm looking for things I might have missed.

I read the article, but other than keeping food and not touching your face etc. I didn't see much actionable advice for me. I'm not taking any prescription drugs, I don't have any family members close enough that I could treat them and handshakes are uncommon at my office.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#33

Post by wcoenen »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #11

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

> The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down

Those numbers are dominated by the reports from China. If you look at just the cases outside China, then those are still on an exponential curve with a doubling time of about 6 days.

My plot of the WHO numbers outside China: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei...

Source of the numbers: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#34

Post by RobertRoberts »

Give me the numbers.

People panic over everything imaginable. The only defense is logic. (which unfortunately is only a slow and long term defense)

At this point I feel I am more likely to win the lottery and get struck my lightning twice before I get this virus. And even then, what is the death rate for healthy adults?

It's amazing how easily people freak out these days.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#35

Post by contemporary343 »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #22
contemporary343 wrote: post #3

The lack of testing and testing capacity in the US is deeply alarming. They’ve only run 500 tests so far and criteria still require the patient to have recently traveled from Hubei! By comparison South Korea is running thousands of tests per day, which is why it is picking up so many cases. Absolutely unforgivable complacency and lack of transparency from CDC. There is almost certainly community spreading in the US t…

Do you have a source for this analysis? Or for the numbers? Generally, the CDC is quite good at their jobs. If you think they’re shrugging their shoulders right now and being lazy or complacent about something, you’ve probably misunderstood part of the story. It’s virtually tradition for Internet comment sections to fill with overconfident armchair experts who claim to know better than the professionals as well as th…

There has been concern on this point from epidemiologists and public health professionals for some time:

Director of Johns Hopkins School of public health, health security program: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1231363420907343873

Dean of Nebraska’s college of public health: https://twitter.com/unmc_drkhan/status/1231284337435381761

Sentinel testing of ILIs (influenza like illnesses testing negative for the flu) in major metros was to have begun at least a week ago. But now delayed for some unknown period of time due to reagent failure on the PCR test kits.

For further context, BC in Canada has alone managed to run more tests than the entire US as currently reported. We have 60x the population and more travelers from the source region in the key Dec/Jan time frame. If we wait till the severe ARDS cases show up like in Iran and Italy it’s already out in the community and causes unnecessary panic.

As the person in charge of viral testing at Brigham and Women’s / Harvard med just tweeted today: “ Reminder: As of today (Feb 23), the US remains extremely limited in #COVID19 testing. Only 3 of ~100 public health labs have @CDC test kits working and CDC is not sharing what went wrong with the kits. How to know if COVID19 is spreading here if we are not looking for it.”

“ Now >10 days since CDC recalled kits w still no explanation for failure. Failure to share what went wrong hinders progress by all labs nationwide. Expeditious sharing of information is a must during epidemics. We say this to China and CDC should practice as well.”

“As someone responsible for overseeing virology diagnostics at our hospital @harvardmed @BrighamWomens - the need for clarity and quick turnaround is paramount to keep the hospital running smoothly in event of local transmission. So far, process from CDC leaves much to be desired”

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/12315038051598131...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#36

Post by carbocation »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

I think there is a real need to understand how much of a vector our phone screens are. People touch their phones, wash their hands, and then touch their phones again.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#37

Post by patagonicus »

dis-sys wrote: post #31
patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

I have: 1. n95 masks, e.g. 50 of them. technically, each mask can only last several hours 2. UVC light for cleaning up used n95 masks so they can last a few days each 3. protective eyeglasses if you need to visit hospital for any reason in the next few months 4. ethanol (not for your masks) 5. medical gloves

Protective eyeglasses is a good one. I wanted to get some anyway, but keep forgetting about it.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#38

Post by dis-sys »

wcoenen wrote: post #33
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #11

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

> The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down Those numbers are dominated by the reports from China. If you look at just the cases outside China, then those are still on an exponential curve with a doubling time of about 6 days. My plot of the WHO numbers outside China: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei... Source of the numbers: https://www.who.int/emergencies/di…

mostly due to two clusters - a cult church in south korean and a ship in japan.

will be interesting to see what curve you can get once you remove those two clusters.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#39

Post by itronitron »

patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

Food items should include things you can eat while/after your digestive system is wrecked, also known as the BRAT diet, bananas, rice, apple sauce and toast.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#40

Post by coconut_crab »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #11

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

> That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season.

This is my thoughts why Covid-19 is much more dangerous than seasonal flu: first it is much more virulent, and hard to detect, many of the infections in Korea were due to one 61 years old woman alone. Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious cases at around 10% (please correct me if I am wrong). Those two above combined means if left unchecked, Covid-19 can easily overload our medical system, as what is happening in Wuhan*. So I will most likely won't perish or suffer any long term health problems from Covid-19, but our society as a whole might be devastated if we can't contain it. There is no need to succumb to irrational fear (like what's happening some countries), but we should all be prepared.

Actually I am worried about Iran, the embargo from America means their medical system are lacking all essentials. That's why they have so many deaths, second only yo China.

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