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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

news.harvard.edu

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#161

Post by joeguilmette »

joeyspn wrote: post #5

Yesterday I submitted this but it didn't get many upvotes.. https://towardsdatascience.com/modelling-the-coronavirus-epi... I think that reached this point is obvious that in our hyperconnected cities a containment is going to be very difficult if the R0 is 3+ and we don't shutdown commuting PS: for those interested in real-time info from experts I recommended following: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter…

here’s a twitter list of solid epidemiologists: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1223539522706661376

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#162

Post by bagacrap »

teeray wrote: post #4
ourmandave wrote: post #3

It's now officially named COVID-19 by the WHO.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

Not if journalists uniformly switch over.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#163

Post by goldenkey »

flukus wrote: post #108
jvm___ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://xkcd.com/1217/

This is also the origin of the whole "alcohol kills brain cells" myth.

Not really a myth. Alcohol depletes vitamin B12, eventually causing Korsikoff syndrome aka "wet brain"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korsakoff_syndrome Korsakoff syndrome - Wikipedia

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#164

Post by rorykoehler »

gruez wrote: post #89
justinzollars wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its actually been novel coronavirus, since day one.

great, now what happens if another coronavirus epidemic hits? do you still call it "novel coronavirus", because it's novel? do whoever's in charge of naming get their act together and allocate a number in hours rather than weeks?

Novel novel coronavirus. The next one after will be novel novel novel coronavirus. Reminds me of some people I've worked with who insist on long email threads with attached words docs as their "project management" methodology.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#165

Post by eric-hu »

m3kw9 wrote: post #101

The last I heard from Reuter, China was trumpeting an April date for this to end. I don’t know why they would pin a date when you are just extrapolating a graph that was in itself wildly inaccurate due to testing limits

China is looking at major economic damage from the quarantines. I think their concern is about people staying in, cancelling travel and other economic activity far past the end of the epidemic. I can see a logic to it, but I share your disapproval.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#166

Post by alexanderhorl »

haunter wrote: post #6

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. There have been several research about seasonal influenza and how it correlates with weather, like…

Also the coronavirus doesn’t really seem present in countries in the Southern Hemisphere except for some imported cases in Australia. There’s nothing being heard of South America or Africa which could be because of their hot climate.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#167

Post by bangboombang »

ipsum2 wrote: post #133
tim333 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Chloroquine is widely distributed in the whole body, including lung, after oral administration. Can't say that about fire.

You could say that about vodka though. It'll definitely kill the virus are in a petri dish, but maybe won't work as well in the body.

2 infected in Russia seems to confirm what you say. ;-)

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#168

Post by tim333 »

leemailll wrote: post #57
tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

In vitro means nothing for clinical use

Well the letter to Nature concludes

> Since these compounds have been used in human patients with a safety track record and shown to be effective against various ailments, we suggest that they should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease.

ie. give it a try

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#169

Post by tim333 »

kragen wrote: post #115
tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

Chloroquine can have serious long-term side effects. This is not something you should attempt lightly or without a substantial fund for compensating the volunteers for the damage to their health.

I guess but I think that's for use over several months. The risks for one month seem low.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#170

Post by jobigoud »

rorykoehler wrote: post #164
gruez wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

great, now what happens if another coronavirus epidemic hits? do you still call it "novel coronavirus", because it's novel? do whoever's in charge of naming get their act together and allocate a number in hours rather than weeks?

Novel novel coronavirus. The next one after will be novel novel novel coronavirus. Reminds me of some people I've worked with who insist on long email threads with attached words docs as their "project management" methodology.

When the string of Re:Re:Re:Fwd:Re:Re: reach the line width of your email client you start a new thread.
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