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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

news.harvard.edu

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#111

Post by mensetmanusman »

Xamayon wrote: post #81
Zenst wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That would be the Housing Market. However, the biggest impact may very well be the reaction in the public towards this and that in itself would cause more avenues of betting. Like facemask filters, only so many get made, so whatever companies make that will see a share price increase, if…

The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese dema…

Many Chinese manufacturers of face masks ‘rebrand’ them as 3M (i.e. counterfeit...)

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#112

Post by tim333 »

ipsum2 wrote: post #15
tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

Not a biologist, but "in vitro" isn't really that informative. Many things, including fire, are highly effective in stopping diseases in vitro.

>Chloroquine is widely distributed in the whole body, including lung, after oral administration.

Can't say that about fire.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#113

Post by mensetmanusman »

reustle wrote: post #62
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #60

How does this jive w/ the totals counted on this site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ ? I guess the source data could be fudged but surely China realizes by now that faking things is only going to make them look worse in the long run? Maybe I'm too optimistic.

That data looks quite delayed, I'd check this one out https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Is it possible there are no cases in Africa? Or will that be a black hole for a decade until their economy reaches some minimum...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#114

Post by crazygringo »

teeray wrote: post #4
ourmandave wrote: post #3

It's now officially named COVID-19 by the WHO.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

What's super-weird in all that coronaviruses are already an entire class of viruses that are the second most popular cause of the common cold, behind rhinoviruses:

> "The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes. Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronavirus (≈ 15%), influenza viruses (10–15%), adenoviruses (5%)..." [1]

Someone you know probably has a coronavirus right now -- just not the one in the news.

But somehow this basic fact has barely been mentioned in the media.

Seriously, calling the new disease "coronavirus" is as silly as a chef calling their new very specific recipe "soup". Like... you've gotta come up with something more specific...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#115

Post by kragen »

tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

Chloroquine can have serious long-term side effects. This is not something you should attempt lightly or without a substantial fund for compensating the volunteers for the damage to their health.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#116

Post by ericb »

tim333 wrote: post #104
ericb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chloroquine is over-the-counter in England and other places. Hypothetically, anyone have an idea where to find someone willing to send a chloroquine care-package to the USA?

I could probably send you one as the start of my experiment.

Count me in! I am first initial (which you can see in my username) followed by "beland" on google's email service.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#117

Post by rgoulter »

catalogia wrote: post #12
joeyspn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore is having 30ºC days, yet the epidemic is progressing and the city is already bracing for the worse...

Singapore also has a lot of air conditioning. Perhaps the transmission is occurring primarily indoors, away from the 30ºC heat.

The primary means of getting around in Singapore is public transportation (bus, train).

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#118

Post by eyegor »

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing.

Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... (thanks to u/pmorici below)

[0] https://youtu.be/JW1ntWFiZNI

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#119

Post by bdcravens »

kragen wrote: post #109

“worst flu season in modern times” — would that be when https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu killed one out of every 15 to 30 people then living, mostly within a period of two months? That sounds pretty bad.

For purposes of discussion, I think they consider 102 years outside the range of “modern times”

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#120

Post by jrs235 »

matt_the_bass wrote: post #97
Xamayon wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese dema…

I just tried buying some today. It was tough to find any that didn’t seem like garbage. I found 2 cotton washable ones on amazon for way too much money. But I have a trip to Korea on Monday. So I figured it would be prudent. My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots.

>My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots.

Correct.

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