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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#131

Post by viraptor »

pmorici wrote: post #127
viraptor wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you got a link for the 24 days? The best I could find is that we're totally guessing things at this point. CDC says: > CDC believes at this time that symptoms of 2019-nCoV may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS viruses.

The 24 days reference is from this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...

Thanks! For the record, the actual quote is:

> The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#132

Post by droithomme »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #64
reustle wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That data looks quite delayed, I'd check this one out https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

This is the data for mainland China, and it looks to be of an order with the data you cite. I think the main risk is whether the China data is accurate. I read the article subsequent to my comment and I realized that this interview accounts for the downward second derivative. The answer is: perhaps controls are working, or perhaps China is unable to test so many new cases. I'm inclined to believe the first hypothesis…

Numbers went down because they changed the method of counting.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490

> In a notice issued by China's National Health Commission (NHC) on Feb. 6, it wrote that the classification of new Wuhan virus infections will be divided into four categories: "suspected cases," "clinically diagnosed cases," "confirmed cases," and "positive tests." Among these, "positive tests" refers to "asymptomatic infected patients" who test positive for the disease but have no symptoms.

> There is also a clear stipulation in the official document stating that "If the reported 'asymptomatic infected patient' has clinical manifestations, their status shall be revised to 'confirmed case' in a timely manner" (highlighted text in Tweet below). This indicates that even if a person tests positive for the disease but does not exhibit any symptoms, they will no longer be included in the daily infection reports.

(the notice cited: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/07/content_54758...)

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#133

Post by ipsum2 »

tim333 wrote: post #112
ipsum2 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a biologist, but "in vitro" isn't really that informative. Many things, including fire, are highly effective in stopping diseases in vitro.

>Chloroquine is widely distributed in the whole body, including lung, after oral administration. Can't say that about fire.

You could say that about vodka though. It'll definitely kill the virus are in a petri dish, but maybe won't work as well in the body.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#134

Post by mattrp »

wtvanhest wrote: post #103
kk58 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you recommend a good source to learn more about how options trading works in real life? Id like to know how you guys generate trading ideas, come up with bet size, study market sentiments etc

I'm going to jump in here. Trading options is extremely risky and a lot of people teaching it, teach it because doing it is normally not profitable and they have already lost their money. Unless you have some huge edge, which no one does, options are the last place to spend your time and blow your money.

Second this... even when you’re right you could be wrong. Options just amplify the effect.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#135

Post by robjan »

mrfusion wrote: post #100
et-al wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air-conditioning also removes humidity from the air. On a tangent, I'd love to see a graph of illnesses during summer before / after the widespread adoption of AC.

Someone could do a study of schools with broken ACs. That might be an easy way to study it.

I don't think a school would operate with broken AC

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#136

Post by eyegor »

stanski wrote: post #125
eyegor wrote: post #118

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing. Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://ww…

What do you mean without actual testing? Those people have been under observation for two weeks. Never heard of this 24 day incubation period. Every country is using 14 as a guideline. Sounds like fear mongering to me.

See edit on my first post for clarification on the 24 day estimate.

And by no testing, I meant the lack of PCR/RT-PCR assays. Which is specifically mentioned in the video around 1:20.

Edit: WHO lab test guidelines if you're curious: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#137

Post by pmorici »

viraptor wrote: post #131
pmorici wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 24 days reference is from this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...

Thanks! For the record, the actual quote is: > The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)

For a explanation of the possible cause of the 24 day outlier see this YouTube video starting around 6 minutes

https://youtu.be/o804wu5h_ms

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#138

Post by droithomme »

iamdamian wrote: post #41
ericb wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A latency window long enough to let people get around the world, combined with asymptomatic spread is pretty hard to stop. I can't even figure out how you could detect it well enough to stop it.

Based on the article, it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. > GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier. > LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published…

> it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half...

> At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers.

> Based on its determination, the team, headed by Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, has called for preventive measures as well as reinforcing the medical care system against a potential sharp rise in coronavirus patients, rather than focusing exclusively on isolation as a way to contain the disease.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#139

Post by backupcavalry »

Waterluvian wrote: post #45
ericb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chloroquine is over-the-counter in England and other places. Hypothetically, anyone have an idea where to find someone willing to send a chloroquine care-package to the USA?

Careful to avoid the symptoms of hysteria.

I avoid touching my face, stay away from crowds (not that I didn't before, hah!), cough / sneeze into tissue / handkerchiefs, wash my hands properly and have a bottle of sanitizer at all times.

I might need more measures if I was in the middle of Wuhan (or even just feeling ill, I guess) but frankly where I am it feels like any additional steps would be done out of fear, not reason.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#140

Post by RandomBacon »

ortusdux wrote: post #107
Fomite wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My pleasure.

Any sources that you do recommend?

Maybe the person you asked edited their comment after you asked, but he/she listed their recommendations here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22304794

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