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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#121
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we’ll keep calling it the coronavirus in casual conversation. I’m not sure if there’s a difference between calling it Ncov-2019 or COVID-2019 :/

nCoV-2019 is the virus and COVID-2019 is the disease.

I call it the Wuhan Bat Plague and the sickness it causes the Wuhan Bat Plague Sickness.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#122
post #118

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing. Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://ww…

Have you got a link for the 24 days? The best I could find is that we're totally guessing things at this point. CDC says:

> CDC believes at this time that symptoms of 2019-nCoV may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS viruses.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#123
post #109

“worst flu season in modern times” — would that be when https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu killed one out of every 15 to 30 people then living, mostly within a period of two months? That sounds pretty bad.

1920 was literally one hundred years ago.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore also has a lot of air conditioning. Perhaps the transmission is occurring primarily indoors, away from the 30ºC heat.

The primary means of getting around in Singapore is public transportation (bus, train).

Public transit in SG is heavily air conditioned.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#125
post #118

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing. Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://ww…

What do you mean without actual testing? Those people have been under observation for two weeks. Never heard of this 24 day incubation period. Every country is using 14 as a guideline.

Sounds like fear mongering to me.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#126
post #118

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing. Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://ww…

Have you got a link for the 24 days? The best I could find is that we're totally guessing things at this point. CDC says: > CDC believes at this time that symptoms of 2019-nCoV may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS viruses.

Apologies, I'm not sure if I misremembered, misattributed, or if that was an actual previous estimate from WHO. Everything I can find now seems to be around 14 days, with the Japanese govt using 16 as a lower bound for the cruise ship. I swear WHO was publishing 24 in a sitrep last week, maybe I just haven't found it yet.

From the WHO Q&A page,

> Current estimates of the incubation period range from 1-12.5 days with median estimates of 5-6 days. These estimates will be refined as more data become available. Based on information from other coronavirus diseases, such as MERS and SARS, the incubation period of 2019-nCoV could be up to 14 days. WHO recommends that the follow-up of contacts of confirmed cases is 14 days.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#127
post #118

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing. Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://ww…

Have you got a link for the 24 days? The best I could find is that we're totally guessing things at this point. CDC says: > CDC believes at this time that symptoms of 2019-nCoV may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS viruses.

The 24 days reference is from this paper

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#128
post #118

Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing. Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://ww…

They were at a US military base.. Surely the US military has better information than the WHO...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#129
post #109

“worst flu season in modern times” — would that be when https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu killed one out of every 15 to 30 people then living, mostly within a period of two months? That sounds pretty bad.

For purposes of discussion, I think they consider 102 years outside the range of “modern times”

Really? Early modern Britain is roughly the 16th to 18th century. Postmodernism and Other Essays was published in 1926. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_era is 1500 CE and later. If they intended to refer to such a nonstandard definition, don't you think they'd have been explicit about it rather than leaving readers to argue about it? Either they meant specifically that pandemic or they were just bullshitting with no concern for the truth-value of their utterance.

Note that the mortality figures they're bandying about do intersect with the 1918 flu pandemic mortality rates at the high end.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#130
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just tried buying some today. It was tough to find any that didn’t seem like garbage. I found 2 cotton washable ones on amazon for way too much money. But I have a trip to Korea on Monday. So I figured it would be prudent. My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots.

>My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots. Correct.

Plus they make others feel better since they don’t know anything about if I’m sick or not.
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