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Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

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Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#141

Post by 07d046 »

loyukfai wrote: post #116
franknine wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had a SARS outbreak in Taiwan since we trusted the statement from Chinese government back then. This time we assume coronavirus can do person to person transmission and blocked travel to WuHan back when CCP and WHO were downplaying its ability to spread. That's how we have less cases than Japan, Korea and Hong Kong now. Recently Taiwanese people in WuHan asked for evacuation. CCP denied our request at first, then…

Do you have a source for this? Either English or Chinese can will do. Thanks.

This contains some links: https://twitter.com/royngerng/status/1224934421540663297

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#142

Post by skmurphy »

torgian wrote: post #138
skmurphy wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, It's viral pneumonia for those over 60 and heavy smokers. China has 240M people who are 60 or older. Assuming a 2% mortality in that population and the fact that many of the younger infected have mild symptoms, 1/4 to 1/2 of these folks may be infected in the next 3-6 months. That's 1-2M fatalities.

Everyone is a heavy smoker in China; air pollution levels and all that. So that stacks the odds against them already.

Statistics I saw indicated that 2% of women smoke and 60% of men. This may account for a gender-linked differential between more serious outcomes for men, it could be a selection for smokers. I agree that the air pollution may push even non-smokers into the risk category for smokers in other countries and push smokers into a deeper level of risk.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#143

Post by microcolonel »

perlwle wrote: post #121
kccqzy wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some tr…

Try Caixin https://www.caixinglobal.com/news/ the english version. I have closed friend work there and speak highly about the integrtity of their reporting and the content I am reading seems aligned to that.

Caixin is based in Beijing, no amount of personal integrity will give them the freedom to report sufficiently on any matter that has the potential to embarrass the CCP.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#144

Post by torgian »

My wife is mainland Chinese, and she has been saying that it a worse than what the government is saying. Also, since Li Wenliang died, well, frankly a lot of people are pissed at the CCP.

Anyway, I feel like it’ll be an epidemic ( it already is, I believe ) in China, and be much better controlled outside of China.

Unfortunately my wife is also stuck in Chongqing; Taiwan is essentially closing up its borders and we don’t know if she’ll be able to move here to Taiwan to live with me. At least not until things blow over ( I assume summer time ).

I live in Taiwan and they’ve been very good at containing this, afaik. Just this morning they released a map of Taiwan with nav-points where all the cruise ship people were at in Taiwan before they went on the ship, and released information on what to do if you experience certain symptoms. 13 people have been diagnosed and quarantined.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#145

Post by microcolonel »

pmorici wrote: post #80
allovernow wrote: post #39

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…

I mentioned this in another thread as well but I recommend watching MedCram's video series on nCov. They have been doing daily videos since late January, [0] really good no nonsense information. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMXSkKLg2I The danger here is that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed by the high percentage of patients requiring intensive care.

In particular, if this gets really out of hand in the west, we may not have enough oxygen facilities to support patients anywhere. Most hospitals are not equipped to provide high volume oxygen to thousands of people at a time.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#146

Post by microcolonel »

07d046 wrote: post #136
DanielleMolloy wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?

Caixin is the best Chinese news source in normal times, and at this time all Chinese news is more free to report on the virus. As someone very critical of the CCP, I'd say Caixin's reporting here is as authoritative as anywhere.

> as authoritative as anywhere

Specifically in the category of news media companies.

There are many stories that they simply can not publish, being based out of Beijing. These stories, at best, will be published to social media by individuals in the thick of it.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#147

Post by oxymoran »

baxtr wrote: post #47
eloff wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's the expert, and I'm not. But I can do math. Influenza this year in the US: 19M infected and 10K fatalities. If you posit 1% mortality rate for coronavirus like he argues, that's 20 times more deadly. And it's twice that in China, it's unclear if that's a statistical anomaly or a structural feature of some difference in how things are tested/reported in China. So I'm not going to just shrug and say it's no big de…

You can only do the math right if you get counter and denominator right. The number of unreported cases is probably very high. I found this in the article posted above: ”So the 20,000 cases in China is probably only the severe cases; the folks that actually went to the hospital and got tested. The Chinese healthcare system is very overwhelmed with all the tests going through. So my thinking is this is actually not as…

Why are they building 12 hospitals at breakneck speed for a severe cold? Do you honestly believe that?

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#148

Post by fspeech »

forgingahead wrote: post #119

Great article all around, worth reading as it's one of the only I've seen that are actually talking about disease progression and timeline. Some key info from the article: ---- Caixin: Based on your clinical experience, what's the disease progression of the new coronavirus? Peng: Lately I've been spending the daytime seeing patients in the ICU, then doing some research in the evenings. I just wrote a thesis. I drew o…

The cases that the interview alluded to have already been published in JAMA: Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

Note Dr. Peng in the interview is one of the authors of the JAMA article.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#149

Post by microcolonel »

ekianjo wrote: post #127
cycrutchfield wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sound a lot like the Wuhan government circa late December/early January. I'm not sure what to tell you. Unless you think that this virus somehow only targets people living in China, it's only a matter of time before it takes hold in other countries. This is not one that you can simply quarantine and isolate away like SARS. This one seems to be communicable at the earliest onset of symptoms, or even perhaps before…

Its been several weeks already people are infected in several countries. Yet no sign of pandemic outside of China. I dont know what other facts you need.

While there may be some other protective factors, the status of the infection in North America is similar to what it was in China in early December (the likely start of the outbreak).

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#150

Post by oxymoran »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #106
ekianjo wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.

You sound a lot like the Wuhan government circa late December/early January. I'm not sure what to tell you. Unless you think that this virus somehow only targets people living in China, it's only a matter of time before it takes hold in other countries. This is not one that you can simply quarantine and isolate away like SARS. This one seems to be communicable at the earliest onset of symptoms, or even perhaps before…

It’s going to become endemic and seasonal. We will need to build up a resistance. Too many will die.
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