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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

181–190 of 560 posts

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#181

I have warned many times that CCP is an evil regime and will cause big disaster for whole human society. Whoever in the free world still trying to make some profits collaborating with CCP, just remember: dance with the devil, just wait for the music to stop.

I would just like to point out that this is exactly, almost word for word and certainly in spirit, how anti-Americanism is expressed e.g. in Europe (where I grew up, born 1982).

It's crossing a line where one's ethnocentrism paints the other not just as "different" but fundamentally "lesser": e.g. many Europeans consider the USA to be "ethically behind" comparably rich countries for its arguable lack of reverence for human life (comparative differences like death penalty, no generalized health care, weak labor and family protection, a certain love for the harshness of capitalism, scientifically flawed sex ed, etc). From this view to qualifying the "lesser" as "evil", there is but one step that some don't hesitate to cross.

It's always been somewhat painful to me, because knowing both sides of the pond, culturally, I just know that the grass isn't that much greener on either side; it's really a matter of perpective, and Europe also has ethically grey values (think history, think apathy).

So today, whenever I hear a blanket qualification of 1.5 billion people (or their regime), especially in absolute terms like "evil", I roll my eyes first, and then I'm afraid. Dehumanizing others, believing that they're lesser than us, is but the first step down a very dark path.

Don't forget that for all our cultural differences, you might be closer genetically to a Chinese person of the other gender than you are with your own neighbor who otherwise looks and thinks just like you.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this thing was killing half of the infected persons there would already be much more deaths than there is now. Unless most the infections occurred very recently which is pretty unlikely. I think my 98% is probably a bit too optimistic, but your 53% is way beyond pessimistic.

This outbreak just started in earnest weeks ago. It has a 2 week incubation period and the illness may take 1-2 weeks before recovery or death. That's why you must look at dead/recovered. I agree that 53% for the general population is pessimistic because as usual there is a selection bias towards those with weakened immune systems, not by as much as you may think.

Are you sure?

As a thought experiment, if you infected an entire city with the flu, the ones to show up at the hospital are the worst cases, and if you just built your data from those people, you'd get a really really skewed perspective.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#184
post #31

Maybe this is demonstrates an immediate consequence of having a people (mainland China, not necessarily HK) that is governed primarily by fear: reactions of extreme subordination, which keep things running "smoothly" under normal conditions, can threaten the whole system to collapse under abnormal conditions.

Maybe outside of China we see it as "ruled by fear", but that's really not the case in China, at least for the majority: China doesn't try to make it's citizens afraid. Quite the opposite. Their modus operandi is "move along, nothing to see here, everything is fine." Indeed, that was their initial message to the public for this virus. So, the problem and partial cause of panic is when there is a problem that is very…

Wouldn't a more accurate MO be "move along, nothing to see here, everything is fine, but if you speak out of turn we can make you disappear"?

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#185
post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

> Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. Leaving aside the offensive comparison of the US to the USSR, you overlook that after GWB, we doubled down on the “US consensus” by electing Barack “drone strike” Obama. (I think Obama was a great President, but he was also very little different than George Bush except in his oration.)

>I think Obama was a great President, but he was also very little different than George Bush except in his oration

Talk about revisionist history, my goodness.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This explanation doesn't really fit the evidence. China engaged in a giant stimulus in 2008-2009, and was rewarded with avoiding most of the impact of the financial crisis. I'm sure China builds some unneeded infrastructure, but they build needed infrastructure that's now beyond the ability of Western governments. New York can't even finish the Second Avenue Subway after 50 years.

You're arguing with an incomplete explanation of how many economists believe stimulus spending works. I'm no economist, but a Keynesian would, I think, say that government stimulus is fine when the economy and demand are lagging. Doing it when the economy is strong encourages capital misallocation and the problems OP mentioned.

I don't disagree with that. But we're talking about a China that just experienced a big negative economic shock.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#187
> U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said last week that the virus could force companies to re-evaluate their supply chains, potentially returning some jobs to the United States.

The outbreak comes at a time of high vulnerability for the Chinese economy. This is almost certainly just the start of a very aggressive money pumping episode.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. Leaving aside the offensive comparison of the US to the USSR, you overlook that after GWB, we doubled down on the “US consensus” by electing Barack “drone strike” Obama. (I think Obama was a great President, but he was also very little different than George Bush except in his oration.)

>I think Obama was a great President, but he was also very little different than George Bush except in his oration Talk about revisionist history, my goodness.

In your opinion, what are notable differences between the GWB and Obama admins?

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#189
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The face masks aren’t especially effective for this disease

People are downvoting the parent, but he/she is correct. So many people misunderstand these masks. Surgical masks protect other people from your coughing / breathing -- they do nothing for you. N95 masks are notoriously difficult to actually fit correctly. A mask with a filter needs to be completely sealed around your face. You should not be able to get any airflow in from the sides. The elastic is usually too weak,…

The parent is wrong. I understand why they might think that since the popular media is spreading misinformation by writing stories to discourage people from hording masks and in the process saying they aren't effective but that is false. The masks aren't a fool proof solution by themselves but in conjunction with other common sense hygiene they do reduce risk greatly.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This explanation doesn't really fit the evidence. China engaged in a giant stimulus in 2008-2009, and was rewarded with avoiding most of the impact of the financial crisis. I'm sure China builds some unneeded infrastructure, but they build needed infrastructure that's now beyond the ability of Western governments. New York can't even finish the Second Avenue Subway after 50 years.

You're arguing with an incomplete explanation of how many economists believe stimulus spending works. I'm no economist, but a Keynesian would, I think, say that government stimulus is fine when the economy and demand are lagging. Doing it when the economy is strong encourages capital misallocation and the problems OP mentioned.

The Uber vs Lyft market share wars are a great example of this misallocation. Due to all of the VC money sloshing around both companies are forced to raise and spend ungodly amounts of money in order to fight for market share. In a more rational monetary environment raising money would be more difficult and both companies would be more focused on profitability instead of market share.

The primary risk of this misallocation is that if/when a recession hits, revenues are likely to drop (or grow more slowly), VC money will probably dry up, and raising prices will become more difficult. So the only way to survive will probably be to cut back on expenses (basically fire a ton of employees). And this of course would just compound the recession.

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