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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#121

Post by allovernow »

jmnicolas wrote: post #68
stapled_socks wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My interpretation would be that the rate of survival is 53%; 348/(305+348). People don't die immediately, the ones currently infected can go either to the "Recovered" figure or the "Deaths" figure. From the link above: 14628 are currently infected(?) 305 were infected and died 348 were infected and recovered

If this thing was killing half of the infected persons there would already be much more deaths than there is now. Unless most the infections occurred very recently which is pretty unlikely. I think my 98% is probably a bit too optimistic, but your 53% is way beyond pessimistic.

This outbreak just started in earnest weeks ago. It has a 2 week incubation period and the illness may take 1-2 weeks before recovery or death. That's why you must look at dead/recovered. I agree that 53% for the general population is pessimistic because as usual there is a selection bias towards those with weakened immune systems, not by as much as you may think.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#122

Post by jtdev »

stone-monkey wrote: post #87
adnzzzzZ wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first comment I've made on this forum about China, so whoever you're speaking to is clearly not me but a collective "you" instead. Responding as myself, I simply added balance to the comment above me. Many people are making the exact same argument the person I responded to is making, and while that argument isn't false, it's clearly misleading. China does get credit for responding to the situation as they…

> However, we must remember that the situation would likely not have occurred in the first place if the people speaking out about it early on weren't punished, which wouldn't happen in most western countries as local governments have way less power and way less incentives to make that kind of thing happen. I'm not saying the Chinese government doesn't have problems, nor am I saying free speech is bad, but I have no i…

... and also the widely held belief that anti-vaxing is quackery. I’d argue that free speech actually combats this type of mindset, rather than encourage it. Maybe the Chinese govt. can use it’s authoritarian tools to dispel the bullshit beliefs behind traditional medicine and bizarre “bush-meat” consumption in China that likely caused this mess.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#123

Post by monoideism »

user5994461 wrote: post #73
bhanhfo wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hongkong, as part of China, is unfortunately governed more and more by fear. Plus the lady in charge is refusing to close the border to China. Compare this to Taiwan, where things are more or less running smoothly. > if and when the first few people will get infected by the virus. ...that already happened

I should say the first dozen(s) of cases in the same city. Hong Kong is past ten. I don't think any city in the EU or US is approaching that. Noting the Chinese population doesn't believe their government and estimates the numbers of infected to be at least 10 times whatever is reported. Also noting, Hong Kong was already in civil war right before the epidemic, remember it was being annexed by China. That's regular p…

> Also noting, Hong Kong was already in civil war right before the epidemic, remember it was being annexed by China.

I've been in countries at civil war (or coming out of a civil war). Hong Kong is not (yet) in a state of civil war. There's widespread civil unrest, which is often a precursor to civil war, but it's not there yet, by a long shot.

Also, Hong Kong was annexed by China back in 1997. Understandably, Hong Kong is chafing under some of the laws China is imposing, and requirements for extradition to the mainland, but the annexation was done several decades ago.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#124

Post by QuesnayJr »

staplers wrote: post #56
QuesnayJr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this obsession with "artificial" stimulus. If the economy naturally grows at 2% a year, but "artificial" stimulus causes it to grow at 3% a year, why wouldn't you do it? It's like refusing to get vaccines because they are unnatural.

Because natural resources are finite. If you don't understand why runaway inflation is bad then you'll need to educate yourself.

Runaway inflation is bad, but in a recession we're not employing the resources we have -- that's why people are unemployed.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#125

Post by allovernow »

jmnicolas wrote: post #100
moralestapia wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there would already be much more deaths than there is now Why? People can be sick for quite some time (in this case, a month, maybe?) and then ultimately die from the disease, this is actually like ... the most common scenario ... I have been unpleasantly surprised by how much people struggle to understand this simple concept. Recovered / (recovered+death) is how you do it. It's common sense, come on ...

I think it's meaningless to make stats on unknown things. We have no idea how many of the infected people will die. The only thing we can say is : as of now the survival rate is 98%. It will probably go down, nobody knows how much.

How did you calculate 98% from the available figures when the vast majority of cases are less than a week old?

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#126

Post by microcolonel »

pmorici wrote: post #117
a_c wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HK has a dozen confirmed cases. Shenzhen, the city bordering HK, has a hundred confirmed cases. HK had experienced SARS, and the magnitude of the epidemic, in terms of number of infected globally, has already exceeded that of SARS. Together with government's inaction (HK government is refusing to close down its border where 60s country or so are now blocking entry from China). HK's medical system is overwhelmed by ma…

NPR reporting from last night say's that HK is dealing with nearly 700 suspected cases. https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1223743600456060928

Daily reminder that the confirmed cases are limited by the capacity to confirm cases, not by the actual contagion.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#127

Post by thebigspacefuck »

jmnicolas wrote: post #68
stapled_socks wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My interpretation would be that the rate of survival is 53%; 348/(305+348). People don't die immediately, the ones currently infected can go either to the "Recovered" figure or the "Deaths" figure. From the link above: 14628 are currently infected(?) 305 were infected and died 348 were infected and recovered

If this thing was killing half of the infected persons there would already be much more deaths than there is now. Unless most the infections occurred very recently which is pretty unlikely. I think my 98% is probably a bit too optimistic, but your 53% is way beyond pessimistic.

If you look at the case study of the first patient in the US from New England Journal of Medicine the patient didn’t get to a poor condition until day 11 of the illness https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 at which point they tried an experimental antiviral and he recovered. 11 days ago, there were 527 cases. Patient in study didn’t come in until 2 days after having the sickness so if you look at -9 days infected was at 943. Currently at 305 deceased and 443 recovered, total of 748, so it seems like the infected between 9 and 11 days ago are the ones recovering or dying. The number of infected goes up rapidly from that point (now we are at over 16x number of infected from 9 days ago), so we’ll see the numbers get more accurate soon. Although number of cases rapidly increases, the antiviral treatments seem to help dramatically and they have just begun to start experimenting with them. Currently sitting at 40% mortality using D/D+R, but I imagine we’ll see more recoveries as antivirals are used.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#128

Post by makomk »

jtdev wrote: post #122
stone-monkey wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, we must remember that the situation would likely not have occurred in the first place if the people speaking out about it early on weren't punished, which wouldn't happen in most western countries as local governments have way less power and way less incentives to make that kind of thing happen. I'm not saying the Chinese government doesn't have problems, nor am I saying free speech is bad, but I have no i…

... and also the widely held belief that anti-vaxing is quackery. I’d argue that free speech actually combats this type of mindset, rather than encourage it. Maybe the Chinese govt. can use it’s authoritarian tools to dispel the bullshit beliefs behind traditional medicine and bizarre “bush-meat” consumption in China that likely caused this mess.

Unfortunately, they've been using this to promote traditional Chinese medicine instead, and this may well come from the top: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/01/asia/chinese-traditional-...

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#129

Post by pmorici »

jmnicolas wrote: post #33
wwwtyro wrote: post #2

Here's a map with the latest coronavirus data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

According to your link the survivability rate is almost 98% (305 deaths for 14628 cases). (I'm trying to inject a bit of optimism here, people are so gloomy).

For anyone wanting an accurate perspective on the risks of This virus I'd highly recommend watching the Youtube videos MedCram is doing. Their first two esp explain the basics and they have been putting out a daily update.

Citing the fatality rate really buries the lead. The issue is that in a high percentage of cases (~29%), including perfectly healthy people, the virus causes ARDS which is a serious condition that requires hospitalization and putting the patient on a ventilator. Combine that with the highly contagious nature and it isn't hard to imagine a scenario where the number of people that require intensive care overwhelms the healthcare system. There are also other concerning factors like people being contagious for several days before the onset of noticeable symptoms and this could be very serious if not taken seriously.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMXSkKLg2I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCG3xqtcL3c

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#130

Post by toyg »

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces.

I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

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