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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#61

Post by jmnicolas »

ALittleLight wrote: post #35
jmnicolas wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what matters now is the rate of infection transmission and growth I don't think it's the right metric to focus either. The survivability rate once infected is probably the most important. I believe that medias business model (pay per click) force them to jump on and exaggerate any threat so as to get more views. It's not the first time and sadly not the last that we see such a thing. I could be wrong but I don't th…

Survivability is important but I believe it's a component of what is important, not the only or even most important factor. You must also consider the infectivity rate. If one infected person infects, on average, less than one other person, the disease will dwindle and die. It could kill 100% of infected people, but it would kill only a small and decreasing number over time. Conversely, an infectious disease, where o…

> because of the huge downside of being wrong, that's not a great pattern to follow.

Except worry, there's nothing I can do to protect myself now.

I will really worry if and when there will be a couple hundred deaths in 2 or 3 cities in my country (if i was living in China I would be worried).

Before that it's just one more sad news that I try to not think too much about or I would live in a constant state of gloom and doom.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#62

Post by bhanhfo »

user5994461 wrote: post #51
daenz wrote: post #31

Maybe this is demonstrates an immediate consequence of having a people (mainland China, not necessarily HK) that is governed primarily by fear: reactions of extreme subordination, which keep things running "smoothly" under normal conditions, can threaten the whole system to collapse under abnormal conditions.

It's not governed by fear, especially not hong kong. It's more of a cultural reaction that many went to the shop to gather food, detergent, face masks and more for the next month(s) so the shops have run out of things (plus many businesses and transports have closed). The panic wasn't driven by government decision but by people acting individually in concert. It's hard to tell if the same would happen in the US or Eu…

Hongkong, as part of China, is unfortunately governed more and more by fear. Plus the lady in charge is refusing to close the border to China.

Compare this to Taiwan, where things are more or less running smoothly.

> if and when the first few people will get infected by the virus.

...that already happened

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#63

Post by glofish »

staplers wrote: post #56
QuesnayJr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this obsession with "artificial" stimulus. If the economy naturally grows at 2% a year, but "artificial" stimulus causes it to grow at 3% a year, why wouldn't you do it? It's like refusing to get vaccines because they are unnatural.

Because natural resources are finite. If you don't understand why runaway inflation is bad then you'll need to educate yourself.

but there is no runaway inflation - as a matter of fact the inflation is lower than typical

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#64

Post by capableweb »

tlrobinson wrote: post #34
capableweb wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask As someone who never been there (or in China for that matter), is "face mask" a synonym for something or you mean literally a face mask? Don't think it's mandatory to wear face masks, just that a lot of people do it, right? If someone knows better, please correct me

I don't know if it's mandatory, but I suspect "a lot of people" means "pretty much everyone" right now.

I see. So you wouldn't literally "stuck" right? You can still go out, it's not like martial law or something like that.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#65

Post by grey-area »

notyourwork wrote: post #47
grey-area wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire world has been doing it for the last decade, and there’s been another uptick recently. The US recently resumed buying treasuries. This is not isolated to China.

My understanding was the US was not doing this to the extent China was. There construction projects to build ghost cities.

The article is about injecting liquidity into markets. The US has done a huge amount of this in the last decade, in fact almost every major power has. Here is the latest US resumption of buying their own debt:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-08/powell-sa...

This has nothing to do with ghost cities (which can probably be blamed on bad central planning and an overheated property market in China).

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#66

Post by cambalache »

adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52
bane wrote: post #20

The Chinese government's response to this situation (after some initial dithering) has been to move swiftly with big moves. I suspect that the force that overcame the initial delays in local response were powerful central government actors who could some in and simply shut cities and entire areas down and not fool around. There appears to be at least one emergency prefab hospital with about 1600 beds under constructi…

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

It seems to me that China can only make wrong in your eyes.

If it takes time to act it is because the system causes this failure.

If the government acts swiftly, it is because they are in panic.

If it does not solve the situation, of course because they have a terrible oppressive culture.

If the problem is fixed. Of course, because these are one of the few advantages of having an authoritarian system.

No matter what China does, you will say something bad.

I know this makes me sound like CCP shill, but I am not. I only want to read an assessment made with the same level of rigour and sympathy, if, instead of China was Denmark or Australia.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#67

Post by bitxbit »

glofish wrote: post #63
staplers wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because natural resources are finite. If you don't understand why runaway inflation is bad then you'll need to educate yourself.

but there is no runaway inflation - as a matter of fact the inflation is lower than typical

Inflation was low because of China. Production cost could easily triple in other parts of the world at the same quality and quantity even if we can move them instantaneously.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#68

Post by jmnicolas »

stapled_socks wrote: post #59
jmnicolas wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to your link the survivability rate is almost 98% (305 deaths for 14628 cases). (I'm trying to inject a bit of optimism here, people are so gloomy).

My interpretation would be that the rate of survival is 53%; 348/(305+348). People don't die immediately, the ones currently infected can go either to the "Recovered" figure or the "Deaths" figure. From the link above: 14628 are currently infected(?) 305 were infected and died 348 were infected and recovered

If this thing was killing half of the infected persons there would already be much more deaths than there is now.

Unless most the infections occurred very recently which is pretty unlikely.

I think my 98% is probably a bit too optimistic, but your 53% is way beyond pessimistic.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#69

Post by seanmcdirmid »

capableweb wrote: post #64
tlrobinson wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if it's mandatory, but I suspect "a lot of people" means "pretty much everyone" right now.

I see. So you wouldn't literally "stuck" right? You can still go out, it's not like martial law or something like that.

Some cities it is required right now (eg Guangzhou). I’m not sure about Beijing, but I could imagine them doing that. The problem is that in those same places face masks are sold out, and you’d have to go out and buy one even if they weren’t. Not only that, but given their scarcity people aren’t probably replacing their face masks as much as they should be, making them actually more unsanitary.

No one will shoot you if you go out without a face mask. However, people will think you are being rude, you might get a lot of stink eye.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#70

Post by Jamwinner »

cambalache wrote: post #66
adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

It seems to me that China can only make wrong in your eyes. If it takes time to act it is because the system causes this failure. If the government acts swiftly, it is because they are in panic. If it does not solve the situation, of course because they have a terrible oppressive culture. If the problem is fixed. Of course, because these are one of the few advantages of having an authoritarian system. No matter what…

Denmark is nothing like china besides being a country. If china wants to be compared favorably to other contries, the need to act favorible to most countries. Full stop.
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