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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#71

Post by xorfish »

londons_explore wrote: post #36
jmnicolas wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't travel to China now, but I wouldn't hesitate to travel anywhere else in the world (I'll gladly accept any donations to prove my point ;-)

I'd even happily travel to china. My worry would be the risk of being stuck somewhere when my planned transport is cancelled rather than being infected and dying. 300 deaths out of over a billion people is nothing.

A virus with R0 of 2 and a mortality rate of 2% would kill 1% of the world population if no containment measures are taken. That would be 75 million people.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#72

Post by tempsy »

ttul wrote: post #8

A friend of mine is leaving HK today - he lives there, so this is not a casual trip abroad. He said the level of fear is making it impossible to live there as a single person. The shops and restaurants are closed. Even his own employer shut its doors indefinitely - and they’re just a video production company. The virus won’t be what ruins China. It’s the panic itself.

there's no way that's true in HK. there's images of people waiting in line to buy face masks.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#73

Post by user5994461 »

bhanhfo wrote: post #62
user5994461 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not governed by fear, especially not hong kong. It's more of a cultural reaction that many went to the shop to gather food, detergent, face masks and more for the next month(s) so the shops have run out of things (plus many businesses and transports have closed). The panic wasn't driven by government decision but by people acting individually in concert. It's hard to tell if the same would happen in the US or Eu…

Hongkong, as part of China, is unfortunately governed more and more by fear. Plus the lady in charge is refusing to close the border to China. Compare this to Taiwan, where things are more or less running smoothly. > if and when the first few people will get infected by the virus. ...that already happened

I should say the first dozen(s) of cases in the same city. Hong Kong is past ten. I don't think any city in the EU or US is approaching that.

Noting the Chinese population doesn't believe their government and estimates the numbers of infected to be at least 10 times whatever is reported.

Also noting, Hong Kong was already in civil war right before the epidemic, remember it was being annexed by China. That's regular protests, transports/tubes/airports periodically closed and shops unable to resupply, so not everything is attributable to the virus.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#74

Post by prewett »

capableweb wrote: post #28
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #25

Having lived in Beijing for 9 years, I’m glad I’m not there right now. Not because of a fear of getting sick, but of the sheer boredom of being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask. Heck, even going to the office is probably off limits right now.

> being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask As someone who never been there (or in China for that matter), is "face mask" a synonym for something or you mean literally a face mask? Don't think it's mandatory to wear face masks, just that a lot of people do it, right? If someone knows better, please correct me

No, literally a face mask, so that people know that you aren't going to give them the virus. I don't know if it's mandatory to wear a face mask.

But it doesn't seem like it would be too different from what always happens in Chinese New Year in Beijing. All the shopkeepers aren't from Beijing originally, so they close shop for two weeks and go back to their hometown. There's pretty much no restaurants open, except maybe chains. And people are shooting off fireworks all day, so the air is just as polluted as always (generally well above the level of an airport smoking lounge in the winter), so you want to be wearing an N95 mask anyway. (Generally if you can't see the mountains around Beijing, you should consider wearing an N95 mask)

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#75

Post by totalZero »

cambalache wrote: post #66
adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

It seems to me that China can only make wrong in your eyes. If it takes time to act it is because the system causes this failure. If the government acts swiftly, it is because they are in panic. If it does not solve the situation, of course because they have a terrible oppressive culture. If the problem is fixed. Of course, because these are one of the few advantages of having an authoritarian system. No matter what…

I think the point is that the Chinese government didn't act swiftly, arrested people who initially spread information about the disease in Wuhan, failed to contain the situation, and has now allowed it to become a global problem.

Due to the way China's government has lied in the past, I am hesitant to believe their numbers or their narrative until it can be confirmed by outside parties.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#76

Post by arein2 »

jmnicolas wrote: post #33
wwwtyro wrote: post #2

Here's a map with the latest coronavirus data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

According to your link the survivability rate is almost 98% (305 deaths for 14628 cases). (I'm trying to inject a bit of optimism here, people are so gloomy).

And I am guessing those who died were having already poor health

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#77

Post by adnzzzzZ »

cambalache wrote: post #66
adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

It seems to me that China can only make wrong in your eyes. If it takes time to act it is because the system causes this failure. If the government acts swiftly, it is because they are in panic. If it does not solve the situation, of course because they have a terrible oppressive culture. If the problem is fixed. Of course, because these are one of the few advantages of having an authoritarian system. No matter what…

This is the first comment I've made on this forum about China, so whoever you're speaking to is clearly not me but a collective "you" instead. Responding as myself, I simply added balance to the comment above me. Many people are making the exact same argument the person I responded to is making, and while that argument isn't false, it's clearly misleading.

China does get credit for responding to the situation as they did after the central government got involved. However, we must remember that the situation would likely not have occurred in the first place if the people speaking out about it early on weren't punished, which wouldn't happen in most western countries as local governments have way less power and way less incentives to make that kind of thing happen. This situation is a good example of the problems of their authoritarian system, and a good reminder of why we value (or why we should value) the things we value in the West, like free speech.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#78

Post by pxue »

daenz wrote: post #31

Maybe this is demonstrates an immediate consequence of having a people (mainland China, not necessarily HK) that is governed primarily by fear: reactions of extreme subordination, which keep things running "smoothly" under normal conditions, can threaten the whole system to collapse under abnormal conditions.

That’s like saying Florida is governed by fear because ppl are leaving and bunkering down when news of a big hurricane hits.

Come on.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#79

Post by NotSammyHagar »

QuesnayJr wrote: post #37
notyourwork wrote: post #26

> It will do the exact opposite. Hasn’t the Chinese government been doing this for years in one form or another to artificially stimulate the market?

I don't understand this obsession with "artificial" stimulus. If the economy naturally grows at 2% a year, but "artificial" stimulus causes it to grow at 3% a year, why wouldn't you do it? It's like refusing to get vaccines because they are unnatural.

Because ultimately it's likely we build unneeded infrastructure that is wasted, including useless companies. Then you still have to pay off those loans slowing growth afterwards. That might be companies that fail or banks with almost failing loans, retarding growth like in Japan for now decades, as well as governments having to reduce spending (or not stimulate) in the recession period because they had so much stimulous during "good times".

In the us it's extremely likely when the next recession comes, Republicans will rediscover their belief in avoiding deficit spending when they are no longer in power. We also will have less things to do to stimulate then in new ways because we already had been doing them. So many political groups want austerity when the economy is hurting instead of stimulous in recession.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#80

Post by seanmcdirmid »

prewett wrote: post #74
capableweb wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask As someone who never been there (or in China for that matter), is "face mask" a synonym for something or you mean literally a face mask? Don't think it's mandatory to wear face masks, just that a lot of people do it, right? If someone knows better, please correct me

No, literally a face mask, so that people know that you aren't going to give them the virus. I don't know if it's mandatory to wear a face mask. But it doesn't seem like it would be too different from what always happens in Chinese New Year in Beijing. All the shopkeepers aren't from Beijing originally, so they close shop for two weeks and go back to their hometown. There's pretty much no restaurants open, except may…

There is usually something open, and the main closures are just for a couple of days during the thick of it, and then afterwards there are lots of CNY sales going on. But that isn’t the point: we usually get out for a few days anyways during CNY, but we are more than a week after CNY-eve, so things should be returning to normal.
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