11–20 of 560 posts
China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th. China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th. This is the current status quo. If the situation isn't controlled by Feb 13th you can kiss at least 1/3 of global GDP goodbye. And, don't get me started on possible outbreaks elsewhere.
Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th. China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th. This is the current status quo. If the situation isn't controlled by Feb 13th you can kiss at least 1/3 of global GDP goodbye. And, don't get me started on possible outbreaks elsewhere.
Stop spreading FUD. There have been a couple hundred deaths. Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th. China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th. This is the current status quo. If the situation isn't controlled by Feb 13th you can kiss at least 1/3 of global GDP goodbye. And, don't get me started on possible outbreaks elsewhere.
Stop spreading FUD. There have been a couple hundred deaths. Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
I also think the Chinese govt is trying to throw money at this problem. They got caught mismanaging the epidemic and injecting money into the market isn’t going to calm public panic. It will do the exact opposite.
China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th. China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th. This is the current status quo. If the situation isn't controlled by Feb 13th you can kiss at least 1/3 of global GDP goodbye. And, don't get me started on possible outbreaks elsewhere.
Stop spreading FUD. There have been a couple hundred deaths. Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
as you said, the normal flu is plenty deadly. even if we assumed that variable was break-even, what matters now is the rate of infection transmission and growth.
right now it is still exponential. we can only hope for the bend in a sigmoid curve to come soon, but we haven't seen it yet.
now on top of the fact that it is still exponential is the greatest crackdown on freedom of movement we've ever seen. a side affect of china's massive population is basically anything new they do becomes the biggest X we've ever seen. dozens of cities that are tens of times larger than most american cities on various levels of lockdown/quarantine. this is already historic.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stop spreading FUD. There have been a couple hundred deaths. Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
Ok, then do you think everyone should just open up and start travelling again?
Wilbur Ross's comments come off as a little callous but whatever. Anyway, these repo operations are meant to stabilize the markets in the event of a flash crash where there is a major dislocation on the price of equities, due to the coronavirus. Still might be a major downside move, but it should stave any long term move downwards.
The emergency repo operations were required long before the coronavirus, we have liquidity issues in the US. Economy will start to collapse shortly... Fed can't expand the balance sheet without exacerbating the problems.
Bloomberg: "The central bank said Sunday it will use reverse repurchase agreements to supply 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity on Monday, with the figure coming to 150 billion yuan ($21.7 billion) on a net basis, according to Bloomberg calculations."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-02/china-s-2...
China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th. China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th. This is the current status quo. If the situation isn't controlled by Feb 13th you can kiss at least 1/3 of global GDP goodbye. And, don't get me started on possible outbreaks elsewhere.
What will happen 17th?
Compare this to the previous recent epidemics that came from China, SARS, H7N9, some variants of Swine Flu and so on. This response feels very different.
I work near some people who are providing some analysis of the disease and the evaluation from that community seems to be that the Chinese government has been doing a really strong job in their response and it seems to reflect a turning point in how the government deals with these things.
In the past it appears that even having a rampant disease epidemic was considered so embarrassing that it was everything that could be done to hide it. Now it appears that hiding it and acting like its not happening is so embarrassing that a muscular response is warranted. I suppose that's an improvement.