Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

171–180 of 560 posts

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#171

Post by ericb »

thebigspacefuck wrote: post #127
jmnicolas wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this thing was killing half of the infected persons there would already be much more deaths than there is now. Unless most the infections occurred very recently which is pretty unlikely. I think my 98% is probably a bit too optimistic, but your 53% is way beyond pessimistic.

If you look at the case study of the first patient in the US from New England Journal of Medicine the patient didn’t get to a poor condition until day 11 of the illness https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 at which point they tried an experimental antiviral and he recovered. 11 days ago, there were 527 cases. Patient in study didn’t come in until 2 days after having the sickness so if you look at -9 da…

Keep in mind, this is a self-selected group of people. There could be 10x more asymptomatic, or low impact cases who thought they had the flu, but didn't feel bad enough to go to the hospital. Imagine if I tried to capture the survival rate of the flu, but chose my population of patients from the ICU. Would the numbers be right?

I think this is born out by the really small number of children showing up in the mortality numbers. Proportionally, kids usually over-represent transmission, I think, from kid-level hygiene and being crowded into small classrooms. They seem under-represented in the study population, which makes me think there could be a lot of selection bias being captured.

Additionally, the standard for recovery is really high and is built in a way that it will severely lag deaths (which have no waiting period). I think it was something like total clearance of the virus, not "feels good, now surfs reddit all day."

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#172

Post by cat199 »

ohazi wrote: post #138
throwawayhhakdl wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The face masks aren’t especially effective for this disease

People are downvoting the parent, but he/she is correct. So many people misunderstand these masks. Surgical masks protect other people from your coughing / breathing -- they do nothing for you. N95 masks are notoriously difficult to actually fit correctly. A mask with a filter needs to be completely sealed around your face. You should not be able to get any airflow in from the sides. The elastic is usually too weak,…

not in medicine / physics, but wouldn't they still reduce airflow and so, while not entirely blocking things, still reduce dispersal / inhalation range?

agree people should not deceive themselves, however.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#173

Post by oska »

jmnicolas wrote: post #21
cagenut wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

deaths are absolutely the wrong metric to focus on at this point. as you said, the normal flu is plenty deadly. even if we assumed that variable was break-even, what matters now is the rate of infection transmission and growth. right now it is still exponential. we can only hope for the bend in a sigmoid curve to come soon, but we haven't seen it yet. now on top of the fact that it is still exponential is the greates…

> what matters now is the rate of infection transmission and growth I don't think it's the right metric to focus either. The survivability rate once infected is probably the most important. I believe that medias business model (pay per click) force them to jump on and exaggerate any threat so as to get more views. It's not the first time and sadly not the last that we see such a thing. I could be wrong but I don't th…

Providing up to date news about an epidemic is one of the most valuable services of the media. Calling this type of news 'clickbait' is quite bizarre in my opinion. The sources I've been reading haven't been sensationalistic.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#174

Post by throw0101a »

yibg wrote: post #156
c789a123 wrote: post #152

I have warned many times that CCP is an evil regime and will cause big disaster for whole human society. Whoever in the free world still trying to make some profits collaborating with CCP, just remember: dance with the devil, just wait for the music to stop.

While this might be true I’m not sure if we chalk this one up to the CCP. I mean it’s not like a viral epidemic can’t originate from other countries.

> I mean it’s not like a viral epidemic can’t originate from other countries.

In authoritative countries the messenger of bad news tends to be 'disciplined', and so bad news is not delivered. It still exists, but no one wants to be the individual that creates the (negative) feedback loop that may be contrary to the diktat that came down from on high.

Of course hiding bad news happens in less authoritative countries as well (being the "tall poppy", Law of Jante, 「出る杭は打たれる」), but the consequences may be less severe.

There was all sorts of secrecy with SARS many years ago, and it seems that China has still not completely broken that 'habit':

* https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/early-missteps-and-stat...

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#175

Post by siracusa23 »

rayiner wrote: post #142
toyg wrote: post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

> Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. Leaving aside the offensive comparison of the US to the USSR, you overlook that after GWB, we doubled down on the “US consensus” by electing Barack “drone strike” Obama. (I think Obama was a great President, but he was also very little different than George Bush except in his oration.)

It's interesting to see the American side of the story: "offensive comparison of the US to the USSR"

I grew up during the fall of the Iron Curtain in an Eastern European country, building Russian Spectrum (Z80) clones for the bloc, the USSR had positive and negative impacts in our lives. I still live in the apartment that I received during the communist era through my work.

However the intervention of the Americans through CIA operations, after the fall of the Iron Courtain, were mostly negative, and we're still suffering because of them.

Not everything is black or white in life and the story is much more complicated than the "Russia bad" the media portrays in America. But I guess each one of us is a victim of a propaganda machine.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#176

Post by lbeltrame »

yibg wrote: post #156
c789a123 wrote: post #152

I have warned many times that CCP is an evil regime and will cause big disaster for whole human society. Whoever in the free world still trying to make some profits collaborating with CCP, just remember: dance with the devil, just wait for the music to stop.

While this might be true I’m not sure if we chalk this one up to the CCP. I mean it’s not like a viral epidemic can’t originate from other countries.

The problem is that, as far as the currently available information shows, at first the Party tried to keep things quiet, until they just couldn't.

I have a hard time imagninig something like this happening in many Western countries. It might happen, but in my view it's far more unlikely.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#177

Post by input_sh »

rayiner wrote: post #142
toyg wrote: post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

> Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. Leaving aside the offensive comparison of the US to the USSR, you overlook that after GWB, we doubled down on the “US consensus” by electing Barack “drone strike” Obama. (I think Obama was a great President, but he was also very little different than George Bush except in his oration.)

At least Obama reported the number of casualties of drone strikes, a rule which the current president got rid of via an executive order.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#178

Post by stale2002 »

moralestapia wrote: post #85
jmnicolas wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this thing was killing half of the infected persons there would already be much more deaths than there is now. Unless most the infections occurred very recently which is pretty unlikely. I think my 98% is probably a bit too optimistic, but your 53% is way beyond pessimistic.

>there would already be much more deaths than there is now Why? People can be sick for quite some time (in this case, a month, maybe?) and then ultimately die from the disease, this is actually like ... the most common scenario ... I have been unpleasantly surprised by how much people struggle to understand this simple concept. Recovered / (recovered+death) is how you do it. It's common sense, come on ...

> I have been unpleasantly surprised by how much people struggle to understand this simple concept. Recovered / (recovered+death) is how you do it.

The mistake that you are making in your "simple math equation" is as follows. It is easier to count the number of deaths than it is to count the number of recovered. This messes up your math.

If you miscount a large amount on your recovered numbers, then this will make the death rate look worse than it actually is.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#179

Post by pdonis »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #161
toyg wrote: post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

Katrina was when I realized how silly it is to think our government would ever deal effectively with a major disaster and how vulnerable we are.

By "our government" do you just mean the Federal government? Or do you mean all levels of government? The mayor of New Orleans had parking lots full of empty school buses and claimed he had no way to evacuate citizens. The governor of Louisiana whined and wrung her hands instead of doing anything. The Federal response was far from perfect but it was much more effective than the state or local response.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#180

Post by semi-extrinsic »

mariushn wrote: post #155
pmorici wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false. If used right along with other common sense measures like washing your hands regularly and not touching your eyes / nose / mouth they reduce your risk of catching and spreading infection. [0] [0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html A regular surgical face mask doesn't protect. A more specialized mask, known as an N95 respirator, can protect against the new coronavirus, also called 2019-nCoV. The respirator is thicker than a surgical mask

Actually, there is a whole class of face masks that "work". N95, N99 and N100 are statistically effective against 95%, 99% and 100% of dust particles, respectively. Assuming proper fit.

Then you have P95, P99 and P100 that look exactly the same but also work against oil-based aerosols (e.g. if you're spraying paint). These are frequently what you get from a hardware store.

Now all these are actually filtration efficiency classes. So you can get a P100 mask that looks like this [1] or one that looks like this [2]. Obviously [2] gives better protection, even though they are the same class.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/3M-P100-Disposable-Particulate-Respir...

[2] https://www.amazon.com/3M-Respirator-Reusable-Particulate-Re...

For the big full face or half face respirators, you can also get rectangular multi-gas filters (e.g. for organic vapors, acid gases etc) that you can also get pink rectangular aerosol filters for.

Edit: forgot to mention that all these are US NIOSH class numbers. In Europe you'll find mostly-equivalent ratings to P95/P99/P100 specified as P1/P2/P3 (or FFP1 etc.).

Post reply on HN