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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#301

Post by spydum »

Quarrelsome wrote: post #291
spydum wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But even non OTA cars with lane assist and such have this same threat vector. If attacker compromise the vehicle code supply chain to introduce such a thing, whether it got loaded via OTA update or flashed by dealer when I took it in for service makes no major difference. If anything, it's more likely that OTA updates mean they can remediate REAL bugs that save lives across a vast majority of cars in record time (vs…

over the air means automatic though. At least with dealer flashing, a poisoned chain has less impact because its slower and less broad. With a fully automated process you run the risk of it being a vector for terror attacks, Sure the point that non-OTA (i.e. just 'software in cars') still permits more localised attacks (e.g. assassination) but OTA represents a huge honey pot of power that I would argue is an inherent…

Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think the net risk is reduced with more readily access to updates. The terrorism line just really doesn't strike me as a likely threat. Regular bug fixes and improvements to daily use are likely to save far more lives. Besides, there should be so many audit/checkpoints in front of the release chain, that scenario just seems implausible (but I do conceed that stuff can also fail or be bypassed- let's hope Tesla and other manufacturers have decent IS engineering)

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#302

Post by Quarrelsome »

xedeon wrote: post #103
Quarrelsome wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they do "over the air" updates? Of the software that powers the vehicle? Isn't that an _exceptionally_ dangerous vector?

Not if done correctly and you take security seriously. Most auto manufacturers outsource software development and engineering. Tesla also offer pretty good bounties every year on PWN2OWN: https://www.zdnet.com/article/tesla-car-hacked-at-pwn2own-co... https://www.thezdi.com/blog/2020/1/8/pwn2own-returns-to-vanc...

Ye but transitioning from impossible to plausible carries an inherent risk. If that honey pot is attractive enough then it will gain more attention and increase the chances of zero days.

The potential impact of an exploited zero day in this context has the potential to be immense and that's the risk that troubles me.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#303

Post by n00b590 »

mlyle wrote: post #190
rjkennedy98 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why not take out a short position? To quote John Maynard Keynes, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

Yup. And the cost of time on Tesla options right now is insane. $590 puts for April cost ~$66.

That's not the cost of time you're seeing; it's the implied volatility.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#304

Post by Consultant32452 »

cs702 wrote: post #228
xedeon wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our household came from driving BMWs, MBenz and Lexus cars/SUVs. Now we are an all Tesla household. The gas and maintenance savings are huge benefits. The Tesla Reddit forums is also filled with many owners who share the same sentiment.

It's a common enough story. I myself have quite a few friends and acquaintances who are in your camp, including a handful of bleeding-edge adopters who bought model S's seven years ago and suffered through some of the company's growing pains. The difference now, I think, is that the people who are switching to Teslas are not early adopters.

I'm not an early adopter. I currently drive a Kia. I'm buying a cybertruck. Just thought I'd give an anecdote that's not switching from the luxury market.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#305

Post by heedlessly3 »

quantdev wrote: post #194
heedlessly3 wrote: post #160

How is Tesla worth more than Ford? Their F-150 alone outsells all Tesla models combined

Future profitability is how equities are priced. Ford is expected to not be (very) profitable while Tesla is. Number of units sold is irrelevant.

Tesla has a much greater chance of collapsing. Their operating and net incomes are negative. Meanwhile Ford is rolling in money.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#306

Post by grey-area »

nabla9 wrote: post #185

All I see is verbal narratives that don't justify the price. Just saying that Tesla is good company, grows fast, has advantage, is not enough. Everything can be overvalued. Narratives without numbers are just as valid for $100B valuation as they are for $500B or $1 Trillion. Has any Tesla investor done the investor math justifying the price compared against SP500 Index Fund for 6% total return for example. Even if Te…

Many analysts have run the numbers. ARK Invest is an example of one bullish fund with open numbers - typically bears anticipate only ice auto revenue and margins and thus compare to Toyota say as you have, and bulls anticipate Tesla dominating multiple markets (EV, Domestic energy, RoboTaxis), and bringing battery costs down.

Forecasting single stocks 5-10 years out is notoriously difficult though, so the range of opinions is not surprising.

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#307

Post by smiley1437 »

dcchambers wrote: post #204

I am ready for an electric vehicle - but I can't get over how much I dislike the interior of the Model 3 and Y. I hate the single-giant-touchscreen interface they have settled on. I get it, it's cheap for them to produce and it looks 'futuristic.' I firmly believe physical knobs and buttons are better for most things in a car. The Model S and Model X are better, but they're pretty much out of my price range. I also w…

I'll bite - what is it about the Cybertruck that doesn't cut it as a truck for you?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#308

Post by xedeon »

erk__ wrote: post #293
xedeon wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say "others" can you cite where you are finding these reports from? Making a conscious purchase and then regretting it (after getting yelled at by your wife) does not equal to a "fat finger incident".

The very twitter thread that you are replying about.

That's one person. "Others" is plural.

As requested: https://imgur.com/a/1IYTbrc

Notice how the payment transaction actually happens in Apple Pay. So that means that you need FaceID to complete it. Impossible to do if the phone is in your pocket!

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#309

Post by grey-area »

rb808 wrote: post #9

So about the same as Ford, GM and FiatChrysler combined. Crazy times. Wow even Uber market cap is higher than each of those three. Feels like 1999.

GM is a recent bankrupt and Ford isn’t doing much better, so they are not a good comparison. 100b is half of Toyota’s market cap, so it is anticipating massive success, a little high for Tesla right now, but not a bubble valuation yet IMO.

The Uber market cap is explained by a bet on worldwide autonomous taxis, though I think Tesla is better placed to take that market, again it anticipates future success.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#310

Post by grey-area »

rb808 wrote: post #250
bob33212 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is crazy is to want to own a internal combustion engine car factory in the future. What happens when electric cars cost less to own and operate than a gas car? How is GM going to retool fast enough to keep up?

Tesla has only been around for 16 years. Given most car companies have a good start already, they should easily replicate what Tesla has done in 5 at most 10 years.

They’ve been trying for 10 years and are behind Tesla. Power pack cost and supply is a huge problem.
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