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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#291

Post by Quarrelsome »

spydum wrote: post #265
Quarrelsome wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the way that it suddenly becomes technically plausible to make a certain % of vehicles turn into oncoming traffic on a Monday morning. OR Make every car on a particular road at a particular time, hit full speed and hit a particular target. Cars are like crap missiles so making them potentially exploitable is a bit risky.

But even non OTA cars with lane assist and such have this same threat vector. If attacker compromise the vehicle code supply chain to introduce such a thing, whether it got loaded via OTA update or flashed by dealer when I took it in for service makes no major difference. If anything, it's more likely that OTA updates mean they can remediate REAL bugs that save lives across a vast majority of cars in record time (vs…

over the air means automatic though. At least with dealer flashing, a poisoned chain has less impact because its slower and less broad. With a fully automated process you run the risk of it being a vector for terror attacks,

Sure the point that non-OTA (i.e. just 'software in cars') still permits more localised attacks (e.g. assassination) but OTA represents a huge honey pot of power that I would argue is an inherent danger.

I personally feel like there's a whole bunch of stuff we really shouldn't be automating and specifically attaching to auto-update until we've got a better handle on zero days as an industry.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#292

Post by [deleted] »

erk__ wrote: post #271
xedeon wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have the app and now exactly how it works. That's why I replied. I can even do a screen recording and show you, if you want.

You should really do that and post the video as a reply to the tweet, because it seems like others have had another experiance when doing it.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#293

Post by erk__ »

xedeon wrote: post #288
erk__ wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should really do that and post the video as a reply to the tweet, because it seems like others have had another experiance when doing it.

When you say "others" can you cite where you are finding these reports from? Making a conscious purchase and then regretting it (after getting yelled at by your wife) does not equal to a "fat finger incident".

The very twitter thread that you are replying about.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#294

Post by kgwgk »

fjabre wrote: post #176
xenospn wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct me if I'm wrong (and I've been a Tesla fan for years, and invested back when they first IPOd), but isn't the Porsche Taycan superior to the Model S in every way (except for a slightly shorter range)? If Porsche can "catch up" and leapfrog the Model S in just their first iteration, I'm pretty sure Tesla's growth is going to slow down significantly going forward.

Does Porsche have domain expertise in launching vehicles into orbit? Do you not think that the cross pollination between Musk's ground breaking companies won't give him a competitive edge against incumbents? I don't think anyone realizes just how significant it is to have Silicon Valley know how in this industry where the visionary is an engineer and not a traditional CEO salesman. It defies common sense that people…

Saab-Scania had expertise in building cars and jet fighters (and other types vehicles and planes) but it seems they didn't understand how this was giving them a competitive edge and got rid of the automobile division. A few years later Saab (planes) and Scania (trucks/buses) would also split, 25 years after the merger.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#295

Post by r00fus »

braythwayt wrote: post #279
r00fus wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And when I say, "taking orders," I mean over the web. You cannot buy or lease a Polestar automobile in a Volvo dealership. How does this not sound like "working around the dealership model that is engrained in traditional auto manufacturers"? It also brings up the point - how will their existing dealer network react when they get replaced by web sales (like some Office episode)? Telsa has none of that baggage.

My point is that we don't need to speculate about what will happen to Volvo when they start selling around their dealers. They already did it with the Polestar 1, and they did it again with the Polestar 2. AFAICT from taking my Volvo into my nearby Volvo dealership, they're still selling and maintaining Volvos. They haven't staged a mass protest, I am unaware of any lawsuits. I do not believe that Volvo dealers here…

> They haven't staged a mass protest, I am unaware of any lawsuits. I do not believe that Volvo dealers here in Canada are lobbying for it to be illegal for the Polestar vehicle to be sold in Canada.

This is because they don't believe it to be a credible threat to their business... yet. Assuming EVs do completely transform the industry (through a combo of economic & regulatory forces), how do companies like Volvo/Geely plan to transition the existing dealership network, or will it result in mass layoffs?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#296

Post by kgwgk »

whack wrote: post #264
sombremesa wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps it’s still overvalued beyond all of those factors. If you feel strongly about that, why not take out a short position? The issue with that is that GP is arguing that this stock's investors continue to behave irrationally. There is no reason to believe they are going to suddenly behave rationally. Thus, a short position is inadvisable. If you are a value investor, the right thing to do is to just not invest…

If you're investing with a 5 year time horizon, sure. If you're investing with a 20-30 year time horizon, and you're convinced that Tesla is overvalued, you should absolutely short it. Whatever "reality distortion" you are suspecting, is not going to last for 20 years. Eventually, when the promised profits and growth fail to materialize, the stock price will drop back down to its fundamentals and you will make a kill…

> If you're investing with a 20-30 year time horizon, and you're convinced that Tesla is overvalued, you should absolutely short it.

Do you understand how shorting works? If you had shorted $10k of TSLA stock in May you would have lost $23k by now (it's not just a paper loss, you have to post collateral to avoid liquidation). And you also have to pay to borrow the stock you're shorting, so even if you don't face a margin call time goes against you.

Edit: By the way, if you had opened in May a short position in TSLA that represented 5% of your portfolio it would be 15% of your portfolio now. That's another problem of shorts: as they move against you they get bigger and at some point you may want to worry.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#297

Post by shyn3 »

braythwayt wrote: post #210
shyn3 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone seems to miss the biggest reason why Tesla has won and the other companies won't be able to catch them. The dealer network. The Nissan Leaf came out and was way ahead of everyone but nobody bought it because they couldn't find it. The dealers would hide the car in the back and avoid showing it to you. There was no incentive for them to get you in a Nissan Leaf because they would make profits, negligible ones…

The only competitors are going to be the new car companies because they will adopt the same model Tesla has where they own their own dealerships. The general form of your argument is correct, however existing automobile companies aren't all wedded to their dealer networks. Volvo (which is now owned by Geely in China) took their Polestar performance brand and launched an entire automobile brand a few years ago. They n…

I might be mistaken but I think the Polestar line is a Hybrid car so that will result in Maintenance for the dealer. I.e. I am unsure if you buy the Polestar 1/2 where do you get it fixed? If you have to get it fixed at Volvo the dealership won't be upset, but then it's not really an electrical car so it's not upending their business model.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#298

Post by cptskippy »

6gvONxR4sf7o wrote: post #254
cptskippy wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cadillac's Super Cruise and Tesla's autopilot are very different systems. Super Cruise relies on detailed Lidar maps, cameras, and radar to function and will only function on scanned limited access highways. It's like operating a slot car on a closed track. From a software and sophistication perspective, Autopilot is a more advanced system that improves over time. It uses Machine Learning and other advanced technique…

That doesn't seem entirely accurate. Super cruise only works in supported areas, and it gets updates at a dealership instead of over the air. Both will improve over time and both appear to use ML.

> That doesn't seem entirely accurate.

How so?

Super Cruise requires that the car's forward collision avoidance, and adaptive cruise control technologies be enabled. It utilizes pre-scanned high precision LIDAR and GPS derived maps that limit where it can travel, and is 100% reliant on GPS to maintain it's lane.

It cannot change lanes or steer around navigate traffic. It won't function in exit lanes. It won't function in tunnels. It can't navigate exchanges. It doesn't work in adverse weather conditions where GPS is spotty.

The built-in safety technologies keep it from colliding with other vehicles, and the GPS/Maps keep it in it's lane. It functions like a slot car and can't deviate from it's slot. It's not a sophisticated AND that's not necessarily a bad thing.

> it gets updates at a dealership instead of over the air.

That might be true of the software but Super Cruise receives updated Map data at least quarterly via OTA updates from the On-Star system.

> both appear to use ML.

The most sophisticated part of the system is the camera that monitors the driver to determine if they're paying attention. I suppose that could be using ML but that's arguably the least important part of the system.

In comparison, Tesla's Autopilot is sophisticated. It can function without GPS. It can suggest lane changes by observing traffic. It can navigate interchanges and construction. It recognizes and classifies objects then reacts accordingly.

Does all of that sophistication in Tesla's system perform better? Eh... it's debatable. But it's definitely more sophisticated and is absolutely doing more advanced things than Super Cruise.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#299

Post by _ea1k »

xedeon wrote: post #234
_ea1k wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure that Tesla managed to get at least 400,000 cars sold in the US before fully phasing out of the tax credit. That's between 1.5 billion and 2.5 billion, depending upon how you estimate it. EDIT: Also, this amounts to fewer than 50,000 cars in revenue. Sales restrictions in various states have probably cost them more in sales than they gained in tax benefits.

I'm not sure you understand how the BEV tax credit works. First of all, it's the customer that gets the refund NOT Tesla. Second, the buyer has to owe enough in liabilities to be even be eligible for it.

I absolutely do understand that. But there are economic principles at play here too. A $7,500 rebate is effectively a lower price without costing the manufacturer anything.

While it is true that the buy has to meet the $7,500 threshold for that to work (which is not insignificant) for much of the lifespan of rebate availability, the cars were averaging >60k. Hopefully most people buying cars in that price range have incomes that make $7,500 in tax rebates possible.

By the time that the prices had dropped to 50k, the rebates where closer to $3,700. How many were sold at each range and what percentage of the rebate was accessible? Hard to say... thus the range of possible subsidies.

Either way, though, this was effectively a big help to the business.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#300

Post by braythwayt »

r00fus wrote: post #295
braythwayt wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that we don't need to speculate about what will happen to Volvo when they start selling around their dealers. They already did it with the Polestar 1, and they did it again with the Polestar 2. AFAICT from taking my Volvo into my nearby Volvo dealership, they're still selling and maintaining Volvos. They haven't staged a mass protest, I am unaware of any lawsuits. I do not believe that Volvo dealers here…

> They haven't staged a mass protest, I am unaware of any lawsuits. I do not believe that Volvo dealers here in Canada are lobbying for it to be illegal for the Polestar vehicle to be sold in Canada. This is because they don't believe it to be a credible threat to their business... yet. Assuming EVs do completely transform the industry (through a combo of economic & regulatory forces), how do companies like Volvo/Gee…

_how do companies like Volvo/Geely plan to transition the existing dealership network, or will it result in mass layoffs?_

Good question, let's stock up on popcorn.

There are multiple forces acting on this, and they will interact in ways we may not anticipate. What we do know is that simply selling the cars does not pay the dealership's rent.

Maintenance is a big source of their revenue, and we anticipate that EVs are going to drive that revenue way down whether dealers are selling EVs or not.

How will Volvo's dealerships react to the XC40 P8 and any other EVs Volvo is going to sell? That's as much a threat to their existence as the Polestar vehicles they aren't allowed to sell.

I don't know, but I have a ringside seat and the first couple of rounds have been exciting.

---

My personal thoughts in this area is that the really big thing we have to think about isn't the dealerships, or even the slow-to-react Big Three US carmakers.

The big thing we should keep an eye on may be the role of fossil fuel oiligarchies in politics all over the world. They are already heavily invested in so-called "conservative" politics, fighting any and every attempt to discuss or even research climate change.

These are people who will stop at nothing to maintain their wealth and power. They will topple democratically elected governments, undermine democracy wherever it is found, lie, cheat, steal, and bribe their way to supporting their supremacy as the rent-collectors for using stored energy.

I'm much more worried about oiligarchs interfering in the rise of EVs than I am about dealerships.

JM2C.

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