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So about the same as Ford, GM and FiatChrysler combined. Crazy times. Wow even Uber market cap is higher than each of those three. Feels like 1999.
I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
>than Volkswagen
those dinosaurs are still not getting it. They continue to stay car companies instead of becoming tech companies. Paradigm shift must be very well familiar to tech people here at HN.
I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
I can see one good reason: the rest of the auto industry is playing catch up with Tesla. Nobody else afaik is even able to do over the air updates (reliable updates, that is). They have a charging network, the competition basically doesn't and can't seem to get their act together, and that's not even really a technological issue.
Imagine if every petrol pump was tied to specific makes of cars?
Any current vendor lock-in of charging is surely at risk at being legislated away, by insisting that EV charging is done through a standard port like refueling petrol/diesel vehicles.
If governments were serious about electric vehicles as a way of improving air quality they would legislate that already.
I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
1) Via their customers, they have access to a massive trove of of nuanced, real-world driving data needed to train their models. No other competitor has that much data.
2) They're willing to ship. They're willing to put features in front of customers, even before they are fully baked. They will learn so much more quickly approaching the problem this way.
The only things that could stop them are legislation or a flurry of lawsuits if they get too reckless with releases.
But it won't be the tech issues - Tesla is full-throttle and solving edge cases at a rapid pace.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe this is just what the top of bubbles feels like. I can’t explain the stock price either, other than human irrational exuberance.
Is your taxi driver or your hairdresser talking about buying TSLA themselves? That’s how you know.
I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
I expect them to fall short of that model in auto sales, but I expect mobility services and stationary storage to make up the difference.
Either way there’s plenty of headroom in that equation for more conservative models that still yield a $100B valuation. E.g. 2000 * .08 * .1 = $16B annual profit which is reasonable for $100B mkt cap.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's also hard to reconcile this valuation with the practice of making it easy to fat-finger a $4,000 non-refundable purchase in their mobile application. Do they need to go back and hit up their existing customers for more money? https://twitter.com/tedstein/status/1219406746868953088
That upgrade process on the app is a three step-process when two confirmations. That's not including unlocking a phone, opening the Tesla app and selecting the upgrades menu... Quite impossible to "fat-finger" it.
EDIT: Maybe it's a discrepancy about what a "confirmation" is? If the author of the twitter thread is correct, the "confirmation" is just a large button on the screen that doesn't require password re-entry, which is not much of a confirmation. He proposes that it's easy to accidentally spend the money if you go to the "upgrades" screen, then put the phone in your pocket without locking it.
I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
With each car they get a lifetime of service revenue, mostly without competition. They expand their network effect, their supercharger footprint, and their technology lead as they maintain momentum. Cybertruck is poised to be a giant success, reaching into new markets outside of traditional EV buyers and into rural and suburban light trucks, the highest margin section of auto sales. Finally, its prominence attracts u…
The issue with that is that GP is arguing that this stock's investors continue to behave irrationally. There is no reason to believe they are going to suddenly behave rationally. Thus, a short position is inadvisable. If you are a value investor, the right thing to do is to just not invest in it.
I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
Musk is a disrupter and he is disrupting this industry turning it on its head. We've been stuck in the same boring recycled car designs and concepts for decades and here comes Elon with the promise of self driving flying cars on their way to Mars with SpaceX in the background making incredible strides forward everyday. To be honest I think this valuation is too low. Elon continues to eat the competition's lunch on a…