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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#91

Post by xedeon »

7777fps wrote: post #43
himinlomax wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see one good reason: the rest of the auto industry is playing catch up with Tesla. Nobody else afaik is even able to do over the air updates (reliable updates, that is). They have a charging network, the competition basically doesn't and can't seem to get their act together, and that's not even really a technological issue.

Isn't the "charging network" a thing that shouldn't be vendor locked? Imagine if every petrol pump was tied to specific makes of cars? Any current vendor lock-in of charging is surely at risk at being legislated away, by insisting that EV charging is done through a standard port like refueling petrol/diesel vehicles. If governments were serious about electric vehicles as a way of improving air quality they would legi…

Tesla has consistently said the Supercharger Network is open for any manufacturer to adapt. "

"Tesla is aware of these problems. CEO Elon Musk first floated the idea of sharing its Supercharger network in 2015, but with only a few hundred Superchargers operating at the time, the proposals did not gain any momentum."

"Tesla’s chief technology officer JB Straubel has strongly suggested that plans are now underway. He said to Electrek: ‘For things like Supercharger, we are actively talking to other carmakers and we are trying to figure out a structure to work with them.’"

From: https://autovistagroup.com/news-and-insights/tesla-points-op...

But instead of doing that, other manufacturers designed much inferior alternatives that are a UI/Customer experience nightmare to use.

Tesla Supercharger:

1. You pull up.

2. get out of the car.

3. Plug-in the cable and charge.

It's that simple and intuitive. You get billed from your Tesla account. Because the transaction is tied to your VIN.

Other EV/High Speed charging:

1. You pull up.

2. Get out of the car.

3. Figure out how to use the menu.

4. Grab your wallet to either pay via card or RFID.

5. Pay and cross your finger it works.

5. Finally you can charge.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#92

Post by georgeburdell »

nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Disclaimer, I am long TSLA. You’re right if Tesla were just a car company, but I view them as half Ford and half Exxon with their energy business. A Tesla car owner might also purchase Tesla solar panels (and eventually a solar roof) with a Tesla Powerwall.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#93

Post by Someone »

TekMol wrote: post #61
nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Market cap is expected value of the sum of all discounted future earnings. So to be worth $100B, they have to earn that amount in future money eventually . Not within the next few years.

That’s true, but the amount of discounting goes up with the years, in the limit to 100%.

If I borrow $100B and promise to return it in 50 years time, you likely would want $200B back, even if you were 100% sure I would pay it back.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#94

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

ec109685 wrote: post #82
donogh wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

One thing Tesla doesn’t have is the lock in that Apple has. If you are using iPhoto, iWatch and iMessage, switching to another manufacturer is hugely disruptive. I totally agree that Tesla’s software chops are light years ahead.

The important thing Tesla doesn't have that Apple does have is a 70% gross margin.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#95

Post by WBrad »

jrbuhl wrote: post #63
7777fps wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the "charging network" a thing that shouldn't be vendor locked? Imagine if every petrol pump was tied to specific makes of cars? Any current vendor lock-in of charging is surely at risk at being legislated away, by insisting that EV charging is done through a standard port like refueling petrol/diesel vehicles. If governments were serious about electric vehicles as a way of improving air quality they would legi…

Tesla payed a lot of money (billions) to build the super charger network. Money no government or other company seems to want to spend. Legislating away vendor lock-in would just cause companies to be even more averse to capital investment in recharging infrastructure.

Elon has received billions from the US government across his companies. It'd be a slap in the face to the entire US population for Tesla to have a 100% proprietary charging network when we helped get the company going.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#96

Post by jfengel »

agumonkey wrote: post #57
reilly3000 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With each car they get a lifetime of service revenue, mostly without competition. They expand their network effect, their supercharger footprint, and their technology lead as they maintain momentum. Cybertruck is poised to be a giant success, reaching into new markets outside of traditional EV buyers and into rural and suburban light trucks, the highest margin section of auto sales. Finally, its prominence attracts u…

> Cybertruck have they published pre-orders numbers ? I thought it was pretty much a PR stunt without any real product line behind.

It's not exactly a "stunt". The vehicles aren't expected until 2021 at the earliest, but it's not vaporware.

There are over 250,000 pre-orders, but for just $100. Many of those are aspirational and won't actually turn into orders, but it demonstrates that a lot of people are interested enough to put money on the line, and many more people are interested but not willing to reserve a spot in line. Since it will take quite some time for them to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks, the pre-orders suffice to suggest that they can sell pretty much all they can produce for the first few years at least.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#97

Post by shakopeeant »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #52

If you're wondering what could possibly justify $100B, think in terms of "What if Tesla put all the other car companies out of business?" This isn't as unlikely as it seems: https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/1219288360096694273 Trucking revenue was $700B in 2017. There's a lot of room to grow.

"This isn't as unlikely as it seems" In what fantasy world do you live in?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#98

Post by UncleMeat »

himinlomax wrote: post #28
nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

I can see one good reason: the rest of the auto industry is playing catch up with Tesla. Nobody else afaik is even able to do over the air updates (reliable updates, that is). They have a charging network, the competition basically doesn't and can't seem to get their act together, and that's not even really a technological issue.

Charging network doesn’t matter. You can charge an ev at home. The number of times you need to charge elsewhere is far far far lower than it is for internal combustion cars.

If evs are truly the future then homes and apartments will have charging.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#99

Post by cs702 »

nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

As someone who has purchased and owned multiple luxury European vehicles (mainly BMW and Mercedes) for the past 20+ years, for the first time I'm seriously considering switching over to Teslas when I replace my current vehicles.

From my perspective, Tesla has now gained long-term credibility, so we may well be on the cusp of seeing much broader adoption by a mass of non-early adopters, i.e., people like me, who evaluate buying a Tesla the same way we would evaluate buying any other car brand. We judge the purchase on "boring" criteria like long-term quality, everyday reliability, real-world practicality, service delivery, overall reputation, interior features, exterior design, resale value, etc.

The stock market appears to be pricing this kind of broader-mass-adoption scenario.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#100

Post by bob33212 »

rb808 wrote: post #9

So about the same as Ford, GM and FiatChrysler combined. Crazy times. Wow even Uber market cap is higher than each of those three. Feels like 1999.

What is crazy is to want to own a internal combustion engine car factory in the future. What happens when electric cars cost less to own and operate than a gas car? How is GM going to retool fast enough to keep up?
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