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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

51–60 of 360 posts

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#51

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Is their really any other CEO who is as entertaining as Elon Musk? Tesla definitely has a monopoly on "entertaining CEO" and people don't really know how to value that.

If you want less likable but more crazy, perhaps McAfee?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#52
If you're wondering what could possibly justify $100B, think in terms of "What if Tesla put all the other car companies out of business?"

This isn't as unlikely as it seems: https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/1219288360096694273

Trucking revenue was $700B in 2017. There's a lot of room to grow.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#53

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network.

I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers update software at a glacial pace and, aside from Mercedes' recent voice control system, I haven't seen anything come close.

Also, Musk is right: no one else has even come close to matching the 2012 Model S. Tesla's lead is starting to look unassailable (in the medium term).

Not to mention their foothold in China, which can only get stronger with the introduction of a Chinese-designed model.

[1] https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/09/tesla-has-the-highest-c...

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#54
post #26

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Who'd be credible competitors to Tesla? Old ICE companies are still struggling to even compete with Tesla's 2012 Model S. It might be that if anyone beats Tesla, it'd be some of the tech giants. Like Apple.

Most people aren't in the market for a Model S or a competitor.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#55
post #29

All the people who had the balls to sell TSLA short have already gotten hurt in the come-up, and although everyone thinks this market as a whole is going to correct soon, nobody wants to take the risk of calling a top. So yeah, expect the name with 14%+ short interest to keep rallying in this market, for the near term. One thing I do wonder about is how the roll-off of tax credits will affect their US sales.

Is there any hard data showing that someone significant amount of short selling is caused by speculation and it's not hedging? Short selling is used used as a hedge against downside risk of a long position. It's reasonable strategy for big investors who have huge stake on Tesla to short sell to manage the risk. >A "short sell against the box" is also known as "shorting against the box." Sellers use this technique whe…

Short selling is used used as a hedge against downside risk of a long position

Not accurate, assuming you're talking about the same stock. Shorting a stock is precisely equivalent to selling it, and your brokerage will always net them out. Perhaps you're thinking of OTM put options?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is their really any other CEO who is as entertaining as Elon Musk? Tesla definitely has a monopoly on "entertaining CEO" and people don't really know how to value that.

If you want less likable but more crazy, perhaps McAfee?

McAfee is insane and definitely not a household name.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#57

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

With each car they get a lifetime of service revenue, mostly without competition. They expand their network effect, their supercharger footprint, and their technology lead as they maintain momentum. Cybertruck is poised to be a giant success, reaching into new markets outside of traditional EV buyers and into rural and suburban light trucks, the highest margin section of auto sales. Finally, its prominence attracts u…

> Cybertruck

have they published pre-orders numbers ? I thought it was pretty much a PR stunt without any real product line behind.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#59

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

I can see one good reason: the rest of the auto industry is playing catch up with Tesla. Nobody else afaik is even able to do over the air updates (reliable updates, that is). They have a charging network, the competition basically doesn't and can't seem to get their act together, and that's not even really a technological issue.

they do "over the air" updates? Of the software that powers the vehicle?

Isn't that an _exceptionally_ dangerous vector?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#60
post #29

All the people who had the balls to sell TSLA short have already gotten hurt in the come-up, and although everyone thinks this market as a whole is going to correct soon, nobody wants to take the risk of calling a top. So yeah, expect the name with 14%+ short interest to keep rallying in this market, for the near term. One thing I do wonder about is how the roll-off of tax credits will affect their US sales.

Is there any hard data showing that someone significant amount of short selling is caused by speculation and it's not hedging? Short selling is used used as a hedge against downside risk of a long position. It's reasonable strategy for big investors who have huge stake on Tesla to short sell to manage the risk. >A "short sell against the box" is also known as "shorting against the box." Sellers use this technique whe…

Short selling, by definition, means you don’t own the stock when you sell it. Investors with huge stakes in Tesla would just sell, not short sell.

Buying a put option would be how big investors manage downside risk, or possibly selling covered calls.

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