Tesla races past $100B in market valuation • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#241

Post by JohnJamesRambo » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:44 PM UTC

SergeAx wrote: post #236

If you check out some of the automotive AI companies, you will see half a dozen names like Nuro, Aurora, Momenta, TuSimple, Pony, Zoox. There are more in the neigbourhood with tech like lidars, computer vision and so on. Those companies has literally NOTHING beyond software and early prototypes, but they still are valued at billions of dollars each. So, compared to them, what should be a valuation of a profitable com…

Probably less than the combined valuation of GM and Ford when each sells an order of magnitude more cars than Tesla.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-u-s-auto-sales-figures-by...

Even if we consider that a stock valuation indicates what we THINK a company might be worth in the far far future it doesn’t make sense.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#242

Post by dmurray » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:45 PM UTC

andoma wrote: post #74

abc_lisper wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software magic. The same reason Apple is valued more than Nokia in 2008, even though Nokia sold many more phones. Once you have software, you can do magical things like upgrading the car’s capabilities, create an eco system for various apps allowing the car to slowly creep into your life. Imagine someday using your car as a backup battery for your home, now, who wouldn’t want that? Allow refueling at hours of day whe…

Yes, this. An example: I remember a few years (?) ago someone complained on Twitter to Elon about people leaving their cars hooked up to super chargers all day (basically just using the super chargers as parking lots). In less then a week (if I remember correctly) a firmware upgrade was out that imposes an idle charge if you leave your car in the Super charger after it's full. I just can't see any other car company b…

That doesn't sound like something that requires a firmware update to the car. The billing logic should live on the server side for obvious reasons. The supercharger already knows who's plugged in and whether they're drawing charge.

Maybe other companies couldn't even roll out that feature to their chargers in a week. But they could duplicate the effect with, say, one employee and a spreadsheet.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#243

Post by dstaley » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:45 PM UTC

_Microft wrote: post #224

dcchambers wrote: post #204

I am ready for an electric vehicle - but I can't get over how much I dislike the interior of the Model 3 and Y. I hate the single-giant-touchscreen interface they have settled on. I get it, it's cheap for them to produce and it looks 'futuristic.' I firmly believe physical knobs and buttons are better for most things in a car. The Model S and Model X are better, but they're pretty much out of my price range. I also w…

I'm convinced that the Model 3 interior is already designed for a self-driving future. The screen is meant to show movies not gauges.

FWIW, Tesla has been incredibly clear that yes, the Model 3 and Model Y are designed for a self-driving future. They even made sure that they could easily remove the steering wheel and replace it with a cover.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#244

Post by ctdonath » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:46 PM UTC

gowld wrote: post #104

donogh wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

> no one else has even come close to matching the 2012 Model S Model S will always be a tiny market. How close are competitors to Model 3? What happens when Tesla employees burn out on Tesla corp and go working for competitors?

Competitors are deeply locked in to their system & network, so not sure why a Tesla employee (of which there are relatively very few) would particularly want to go elsewhere.

I worked at Kodak at a critical point, and watched (from inside) the dynamics of why the photography juggernaut was utterly unable to pivot from "chemical consumables" to "computing capital" as primary products. A major barrier was the absolute dependency on third parties for distribution (drugstores being primary retail sales, leveraging the "buy film, return film, get prints" model for their own sales); Kodak could not perform the pivot without alienating those necessary to fund the pivot ("don't go digital, or we'll stop selling your products"). Result: small agile digital camera companies outmaneuvered the juggernaut.

Similar with EVs. Major ICE companies can't pivot to EVs in time, because third parties involved in ICE cash flow will cut off vital funding before the pivot completes. Tesla even offered Supercharger Network access to major ICE manufacturers, who said no - meaning the latter are still beholden to the gasoline infrastructure, there being no viable rapid-charge network in place where Tesla has already completed majority coverage. (I'm not sure quite how the economics will play out, but they will.)

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#245

Post by Already__Taken » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:46 PM UTC

gowld wrote: post #131

xedeon wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has consistently said the Supercharger Network is open for any manufacturer to adapt. " "Tesla is aware of these problems. CEO Elon Musk first floated the idea of sharing its Supercharger network in 2015, but with only a few hundred Superchargers operating at the time, the proposals did not gain any momentum." "Tesla’s chief technology officer JB Straubel has strongly suggested that plans are now underway. He s…

"The difficulty of submitting payment for fuel" isn't something that customers have been too concerned about in the century-long history of gas stations.

This from the country where you still pay in the station some fixed amount before you then go fill up? Do some states still ban you filling your own car?

People never used to have difficulty phoning each other too.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#246

Post by r00fus » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:46 PM UTC

braythwayt wrote: post #210

shyn3 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone seems to miss the biggest reason why Tesla has won and the other companies won't be able to catch them. The dealer network. The Nissan Leaf came out and was way ahead of everyone but nobody bought it because they couldn't find it. The dealers would hide the car in the back and avoid showing it to you. There was no incentive for them to get you in a Nissan Leaf because they would make profits, negligible ones…

The only competitors are going to be the new car companies because they will adopt the same model Tesla has where they own their own dealerships. The general form of your argument is correct, however existing automobile companies aren't all wedded to their dealer networks. Volvo (which is now owned by Geely in China) took their Polestar performance brand and launched an entire automobile brand a few years ago. They n…

> And when I say, "taking orders," I mean over the web. You cannot buy or lease a Polestar automobile in a Volvo dealership.

How does this not sound like "working around the dealership model that is engrained in traditional auto manufacturers"? It also brings up the point - how will their existing dealer network react when they get replaced by web sales (like some Office episode)?

Telsa has none of that baggage.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#247

Post by notJim » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:47 PM UTC

pretendscholar wrote: post #139

yalogin wrote: post #35

The biggest advantage they have is their supercharging network. Every manufacturer is focusing on ADAS and electric cars but no one is focusing on the network. That is their biggest advantage and the only reason to buy a Tesla, granted their cars are great but without the network it’s just an expensive commute car.

Something I've never understood is why you would want your auto manufacturer to own energy stations. Why wouldn't you just leave that up to the gas stations?

You honestly don't want that, but if it's literally the only option (as it is today), it's a huge advantage.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#248

Post by jfoster » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:48 PM UTC

nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Having better sales might help for a few quarters/years. Having better technology might help for a few decades.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#249

Post by misiti3780 » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:48 PM UTC

aynyc wrote: post #40

I don't know how to value a stock, but after riding in my friend's Tesla a few times on road trips. I seriously doubt I'll buy a ICE car ever again unless for specific purposes (mini-van). I know 10 people who owns Tesla, the 6 or so friends I've spoken about it feel the same way as I do. If this keeps up, I think Tesla's stock price is under valued.

Im not saying your opinion is wrong, but most of the world cant afford a tesla, so I have no doubt that your friend group is skewed with salaries way above the mean.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#250

Post by rb808 » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:48 PM UTC

bob33212 wrote: post #100

rb808 wrote: post #9

So about the same as Ford, GM and FiatChrysler combined. Crazy times. Wow even Uber market cap is higher than each of those three. Feels like 1999.

What is crazy is to want to own a internal combustion engine car factory in the future. What happens when electric cars cost less to own and operate than a gas car? How is GM going to retool fast enough to keep up?

Tesla has only been around for 16 years. Given most car companies have a good start already, they should easily replicate what Tesla has done in 5 at most 10 years.