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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#851

Post by mrfusion »

einrealist wrote: post #257
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

You realize trolls can wreak havoc with traffic today if they wanted to?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#852

Post by gist »

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

> I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term

I think when someone says 'will never happen' they mean 'not in the foreseeable future'.

Obviously the environment, usage and science can change such that full self driving could happen. I mean in the 1600s nobody could imagine a Boeing 747 flying loaded with hundreds of people, sure.

But the hype around self driving (by all the dreamers) has been that it's more or less 'right around the corner' not in 30 or 40 years or even 20 years.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#853

Post by harambae »

ozim wrote: post #797
aantix wrote: post #785

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I had to choose between privacy of my location or the convenience of a self driving car, I’d choose the car. Every single time. Convenience wins out over privacy for me. It’s the same for the billions that elect to use Facebook. I don’t care if Tesla’s knows I visited the supermarket.

Tell that to guy that had smartwatch and his wife noticed he had high heart rate somewhere at night where he should be doing something else. I don't have link for the story. But idea behind this is not that one should not cheat on his wife because he will get caught. To be really a human and be honest, one must not have an urge to cheat on his wife(husband) because he loves her. If someone has dirty thoughts and only…

I think this might be the story

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2019/12/14/fitbit-jane-s...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#854

Post by RichardCA »

dodobirdlord wrote: post #395
heavyset_go wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no evidence that automated driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they ever will be.

> or that they ever will be Eventually being better than humans seems like it's obviously going to happen. Not driving drunk, not getting distracted, and not sleeping at the wheel alone are advantages enough that I would be amazed if the balance doesn't eventually fall in favor of the self-driving car. Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how muc…

I disagree that it's obvious. Even a mediocre driver can do things like change lanes in heavy traffic. The nut of the problem is a social one. You have to signal your intention and then figure out when someone else is going to let you in. The basic human ability to form a picture that includes the intentions of the other human beings around them is part of the "Strong AI problem" and may never be solved, ever.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#855

Post by rmtech »

jasonhansel wrote: post #575

I think it's pretty clear that mass transit and (e-)bikes--not cars--should become the primary modes of transportation, at least in urban areas, if for no other reason than that they're inherently more sustainable. I would be concerned that self-driving cars will only arrive after Peak Automobile has already come and gone.

Self-driving cars, vans and buses are better than mass transit that operates on fixed lines and schedules in nearly every respect, including energy use. Mass transit on fixed routes is a fossil and it will increasingly be phased out in favor of self-driving transport networks where the route, the timing and the size of the vehicle adapts to needs.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#856

Post by rmtech »

akrymski wrote: post #371

Thank God! Self driving cars are not a solution to the world's problems. Better public transport is. Why can't we have self driving buses that replace trams? The level of AI needed for that is already there. As the population of major cities grows, we can't expect everyone riding around in their own car. Public transport is better for citizens and the environment. We need to be reducing the number of vehicles on the…

> Why can't we have self driving buses that replace trams?

Why can't we have both, and sizes in between, and then dispatch whichever vehicle size is most appropriate for the situation?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#857

Post by kohtatsu »

aantix wrote: post #835
ozim wrote: post #797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to guy that had smartwatch and his wife noticed he had high heart rate somewhere at night where he should be doing something else. I don't have link for the story. But idea behind this is not that one should not cheat on his wife because he will get caught. To be really a human and be honest, one must not have an urge to cheat on his wife(husband) because he loves her. If someone has dirty thoughts and only…

This argument is about that you have to make concessions - tradeoffs. You have a choice to not use the autonomous car, to not use the apple watch, to choose a privacy-conscious internet carrier.

Did you read the comment?

The problem is self-driving vehicles implemented with fleet data that vacuums up everything will spy on everyone, not just the driver.

They need to be implemented with on-board redaction.

Otherwise there is no choice for anyone, the companies or the ruling party can do facial or gait recognition on pedestrians and other drivers, and scrape license plates of of all parked and driving cars from the data stored in the cloud.

With just Lidar I imagine this is less of a problem, but at least pedestrians in that case will still need to be redacted for gait recognition.

My first comment wasn't about your regard to personal privacy, it was with regards to everyone's. One person's data is mostly worthless; everyone's is priceless.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#858

Post by kohtatsu »

aantix wrote: post #835
ozim wrote: post #797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to guy that had smartwatch and his wife noticed he had high heart rate somewhere at night where he should be doing something else. I don't have link for the story. But idea behind this is not that one should not cheat on his wife because he will get caught. To be really a human and be honest, one must not have an urge to cheat on his wife(husband) because he loves her. If someone has dirty thoughts and only…

This argument is about that you have to make concessions - tradeoffs. You have a choice to not use the autonomous car, to not use the apple watch, to choose a privacy-conscious internet carrier.

Also FWIW Apple has a good track record with privacy, it's all opt-in.

Edit: Health data is also end-to-end encrypted (accessible by your devices only, Apple servers don't have keys, if you forget your passcode you lose the data); https://support.apple.com/en-ca/HT202303

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#859

Post by BurningFrog »

threeseed wrote: post #86
robbrown451 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

I actually think autonomous taxi services will be niche. Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. Now the liability for that behaviour is with the driver. In an autonomous car the liability would be Uber which is why they won't do it. An Uber that needs to look for parking in order to pick you up is never going to work in most busy…

If valuable, common and practical use breaks parking laws, the laws should be changed.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#860

Post by jsgo »

cameronh90 wrote: post #545
einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

What's stopping people from destroying yield signs and other safety critical road infrastructure now? Sometimes common sense helps, but it you're out to cause chaos, there's a ton of things you can do today that would cause crashes - but most of the time, people don't.

I’ve seen intersections where people have went offroad in an accident and knocked down stop signs and people know when approaching that it should be there. Would a car?

The only way I can see that working is if there is some kind of geographic location of various stops and the like, but at that point, you need consistent connectivity to obtain that kind of data, right? May work in larger towns and cities, but what about rural areas?

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