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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#671

Post by SECProto »

beerandt wrote: post #669
SECProto wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

Pavement is a wear item.

Yes, the top lift of pavement is a wear item in the decade time frame. Paint is a wear item in the sub-one year time frame (where I live, with low-VOC paint and frequent winter plowing)

Curbs, signage, lights, poles, drainage infrastructure, lower lifts of asphalt and granular material, ...are all non-wear items. This doesn't mean they never need to be repaired, but rather that they tend to get replaced after unintentional damage. Off-surface beacons (what the original comment suggested) would be in this category.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#672

Post by stale2002 »

spookthesunset wrote: post #566
dodobirdlord wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or that they ever will be Eventually being better than humans seems like it's obviously going to happen. Not driving drunk, not getting distracted, and not sleeping at the wheel alone are advantages enough that I would be amazed if the balance doesn't eventually fall in favor of the self-driving car. Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how muc…

> Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how much the human average is dragged down by recklessnes Tell that to the jury when your self driving car runs into the side of school bus full of kids (which will happen given any reasonable adoption). Self driving cars would have to be held to an almost insanely high standard to be “winnable lawsuit” proo…

These lawsuits alright happen. Right now.

A car manufacturer can already be sued for things that go wrong, in a car, but the world keeps spinning.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#673

Post by Doctor_Fegg »

scoot wrote: post #446
clouddrover wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's bloody well both: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bloody

Hmm, you're absolutely right! (And the dictionary I consulted is as wrong as I was.) So why does the post I was replying to not work as is?

The "even" both breaks up the flow and makes the "bloody" unnecessary - i.e. you've already said "even", you don't need to say "bloody" too.

So although there's nothing grammatically wrong with the sentence, it reads awkwardly. A native British English speaker would be more likely to use your suggestion. It's just one of those barely documented curiosities like adjective order (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/13/senten...).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#674

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

mavhc wrote: post #275
einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

Now imagine every car equipped to 'self-drive'. No manually driven cars anymore anywhere. No old timers, no exceptions. What would the daily dead rate be? 30k? 30m? Somewhere in between? Lower?

It's easy to say they are better, when there are so few of them. (Compared to the amount of human driven cars)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#675

Post by SECProto »

Animats wrote: post #620
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Volvo has proposed some rather simple infrastructure - driving magnetized nails into the pavement as a lane hint. This is mostly because they have to deal with heavy snow. It's not the sole, or even the primary guidance system, but it helps. They also suggest that snowplows could use the magnets for guidance. In snowy areas, it's common to use posts or flags or even overhead signs (in Hokkaido) to show where the road…

Possibly something between lifts of asphalt would work. But a nail through the surface layer of asphalt would allow water in, and mess with the structural integrity of the wear surface. Also, the water it allowed in would freeze and expand and likely push the "nail" upwards - leading to punctured tires. I'd be curious to read a bit more if you have a link.

The overhead lane markers in Hokkaido work well, but would be an expensive retrofit elsewhere (not the poles themselves, but the foundations)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#676

Post by zhoujianfu »

I think they may never happen because full self-FLYING “cars” (vtol drones) will very likely happen first (it’s more a regulatory thing than a tech thing).

And flying would be superior to driving (faster, no traffic, no need to maintain infrastructure, etc..) so there’d be little incentive to continue even trying to get to level 5 for self-driving.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#677

Post by 6510 »

LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #674
mavhc wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

Now imagine every car equipped to 'self-drive'. No manually driven cars anymore anywhere. No old timers, no exceptions. What would the daily dead rate be? 30k? 30m? Somewhere in between? Lower? It's easy to say they are better, when there are so few of them. (Compared to the amount of human driven cars)

Configurable! A reasonable amount of death. Not to much but enough to still allow for fast traffic. This kind of calc is already done for car safety features. It probably is as ridiculous as it sounds but who am I to judge.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#678

Post by ladberg »

zhoujianfu wrote: post #676

I think they may never happen because full self-FLYING “cars” (vtol drones) will very likely happen first (it’s more a regulatory thing than a tech thing). And flying would be superior to driving (faster, no traffic, no need to maintain infrastructure, etc..) so there’d be little incentive to continue even trying to get to level 5 for self-driving.

I really like this take and I would love it to come true, but I have some doubts. Fully self-driving cars could probably eventually be accomplished with our current level of hardware (we just need much better software), but flying cars would require decades of continuous improvements in the hardware required.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#679

Post by takeda »

stale2002 wrote: post #672
spookthesunset wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how much the human average is dragged down by recklessnes Tell that to the jury when your self driving car runs into the side of school bus full of kids (which will happen given any reasonable adoption). Self driving cars would have to be held to an almost insanely high standard to be “winnable lawsuit” proo…

These lawsuits alright happen. Right now. A car manufacturer can already be sued for things that go wrong, in a car, but the world keeps spinning.

Nope, they already lobbied that car owner is responsible for failures of the self driving system.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#680

Post by Too »

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

Isn't that exactly what the article said? Lvl 4 on good prepared roads - possible, lvl 5 go anywhere you want - maybe not.
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