Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#361

Post by barrkel » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:53 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

It would be interesting to see those cars on these Parisian streets, with this level of dynamic hazard: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jojf3Ci2H3A

I reckon motorways could be handled easily enough, and basic dual carriageways and normal intersections, but once you start mixing up multiple modes in inner cities, some tough decisions need to be made.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#362

Post by ggreer » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:54 PM UTC

krawakoliz wrote: post #334

Booktrope wrote: post #111

Or perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. That, of course, would mean far less cars. So don't expect a traditional car manufacturer to lead the way. This is incidentally one reason for Tesla's huge market value. The company actually has a plan to transition from individua…

> O r perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. Why on earth would anyone use this over public transit? That would be a hugely expensive way to travel.

Public transportation where I live is disgusting and often dangerous. Buses and trains don't pick me up and drop me off in front of my home. And they run on fixed schedules.

Due to these advantages, I usually take Uber/Lyft instead of BART or Muni. Autonomous vehicles would reduce the cost of such services even more.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#363

Post by erik_seaberg » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:55 PM UTC

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #186

URSpider94 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s basically a virtual tandem semi. The presumption is that you are delegating command and control to the lead vehicle, and there is bidirectional communication between the lead and follow vehicles.

Well, why don't we go a step further then and physically connect the vehicles? Maybe we can also make them longer and fit more passengers? And we could optimize the rolling friction, replace rubber on tarmac with something better like steel on steel, and use some sort of tracks to provide the sideways forces?

Are the other passengers quiet and housebroken? Does the steel track go to my office? (Broken or misused rail switches cause a lot of accidents.)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#364

Post by gugagore » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:55 PM UTC

93po wrote: post #341

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

It seems to me 99.99% of all road markings are perfectly visible

Assuming you're right in that estimate, the hard work is getting more 9s. As a total kind of spitball number, you want 4 more of them.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#365

Post by seanmcdirmid » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:55 PM UTC

bobthepanda wrote: post #240

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are already cities where buying a car is difficult and/or expensive because of traffic concerns. Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, ... I don’t see an AI requirement to be a huge hurdle for those cities.

There are other actors on the road, namely pedestrians and cyclists. Unless we're going to remove the right of citizens to the street at all, they will be present and will need to be accommodated for.

Computers can or will deal with the other actors as well as humans do now, which is quite a low bar anyways.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#366

Post by heavyset_go » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:59 PM UTC

mavhc wrote: post #275

einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

There is no evidence that automated driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they ever will be.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#367

Post by SECProto » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:59 PM UTC

Fomite wrote: post #310

SECProto wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

"Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item" I am extremely skeptical that beacons, sitting out in the heat, and the sun, and the cold, and the rain, and exposed to whatever we use to maintain roads at that juncture, will not be "a wear item".

Sure, but in the sense that road signs or traffic lights are a wear item. They wouldn't be exposed to the real causes of damage to roads (at least in my area) - transport trucks and road plows. They would need to be replaced at 5-30 year intervals, rather than 4-12 month intervals.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#368

Post by cjbenedikt » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 11:00 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

Update markings and beacons? So far just mere road repairs are poor and take ages to be done.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#369

Post by bobthepanda » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 11:04 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #365

bobthepanda wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other actors on the road, namely pedestrians and cyclists. Unless we're going to remove the right of citizens to the street at all, they will be present and will need to be accommodated for.

Computers can or will deal with the other actors as well as humans do now, which is quite a low bar anyways.

My point is that unless you get rid of them completely, traffic flow is not going to increase. You can't have free-flowing traffic everywhere and also have pedestrians safely crossing the street, and the lower bound on a traffic light cycle today is the amount of time it takes an old person to cross the street from curb to curb.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#370

Post by holoduke » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 11:04 PM UTC

_red wrote: post #277

macinjosh wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are millions of miles of roads just in the US that will never have that sort of infrastructure because the cost of keeping beacons running and marking in place would be astronomical. Sure maybe California will have some of that around big population areas but that's probably about it. What happens to all these markings when it snows a couple centimeters?' Fully self driving cars won't happen in our lifetime, pr…

its not only lines on the road though: Imagine you are following a pickup-truck and out of the back an obviously empty box floats out of the bed and lands directly in front of your car. For a human its trivial to know the box is empty and its ok to hit it....does "AI" know that? Multiply that case x1000 and you have the conditions self-driving cars will need to handle on a daily basis.

I think I can write a script what is able to recognize the exact weight of the flying object. I will calculate the rate of falling based on different observation like airfriction, rotation speed, speed decrease etc. With my model I can extract a probability number which I use to make a decision. Easy job. Opencv, tensor flow, some tracker software and php and of course a 16k 4000fps 3d camera will do the job. I am kidding. You are right.