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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#341

Post by ReverseCold »

notJim wrote: post #174
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

> Additionally, Nissan has the #4-selling electric car, and Chevy has the #2.

From here: https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-s... - by # of units sold, no one is even close to the Model 3. People with money to buy electric cars with can probably afford a $50k car (Model 3) that does everything well over $less cars that do everything kinda poorly.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#342

Post by jppope »

jbms wrote: post #237
notJim wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

Automakers don't like gas/electric hybrids as they are more complex to design and manufacture than either gas or electric vehicles. Fuel-cell/electric hybrids are a different value proposition and will keep going. But they'll increasingly drop gas hybrids and jump to full electric, perhaps after the next generation of vehicles.

Honda's Tesla killing fuel cell civic has a price tag of $300K+.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#343

Post by jppope »

notJim wrote: post #174
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

It's not optimism, it's arithmetic: Tesla is stealing units from the other car companies. The other car companies require those unit sales to keep the prices the where they are otherwise they have to raise prices (same goes for insurance).

Sure maybe for the next 2-5 years people will do business as normal but are you really going to buy a Corolla for $30K when you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $30K? That is what will cause a quick shift.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#344

Post by jppope »

vardump wrote: post #281
notJim wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

> Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. I thought that was in 2012? Of course "recently" is kind of subjective. Edit: Ah, so they only introduced plug-in hybrids in the United States in 2016. Wonder what took them so long.

Most of the major automakers work in 5 year cycles, where the cars are basically the same for 5 years but get cosmetic changes. Major design changes need to be part of the next cycle if its non-trivial.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#345

Post by anon73044 »

phkahler wrote: post #122
tdhz77 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car companies have years of office politics that impact their ability to see the future. I think this has clouded their judgment. People are rooting for Tesla. The gas industry has propped up the short sellers and now the ones that have the money are the ones that believe climate change is real and that Tesla is apart of the solution. New technology in batteries, automation, AI, etc is driving Tesla not sales of the…

>> That’s because Tesla is a tech company not a car company The traditional car companies specialy is not cars. Its manufacturing and supply chain management. Tesla does seem to be mastering manufacturing, and being more vertical they dont need as much supply chain handling. They are not particularly advanced in tech from what I've seen. They do have a bunch of young motivated engineers that have a lot to learn and t…

>The traditional car companies specialy is not cars. Its manufacturing and supply chain management.

Don't forget the finance side of things! GMAC was founded 101 years ago and also got a large portion of the bailout.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#346

Post by lamp_book »

jppope wrote: post #343
notJim wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

It's not optimism, it's arithmetic: Tesla is stealing units from the other car companies. The other car companies require those unit sales to keep the prices the where they are otherwise they have to raise prices (same goes for insurance). Sure maybe for the next 2-5 years people will do business as normal but are you really going to buy a Corolla for $30K when you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $30K? That is what will…

A new Model 3 is 36k, a new Corolla is 19.6k MSRP. Realistically you can get the Toyota for less than half the price of the Tesla. I am not convinced that gap can be closed in 5 years, much less 2.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#347

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

LastZactionHero wrote: post #308
slumdev wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only sort of. John Q. Public has no reason to buy an EV. Today's gas prices don't put the same dent in his pocket that $5/gallon* gas did. And there's good reason to believe that $5/gallon gas is probably never coming back. I am for EVs, Tesla, and anything that can keep us from making large portions of Earth unarable and uninhabitable. But most people's car-buying decisions are driven by economic realities, not envi…

If commercials tell me anything about what car buyers value, there are so many other apsects John Q Public would appreciate! John likes fast cars. And oh boy my Nissan Leaf is fun to drive! Mountain driving feels like floating silently into the air. Instant torque, no gear shifting. John may also appreciate the extra leg room, as even a compact car gains a lot of room without a gas engine. John also likes saving mone…

> Less brake wear (I think?) from regeneration.

On the Model 3, if you enable Hold mode, then it's possible to drive without EVER using the brakes outside of emergency situations. The rotors and pads will theoretically last forever outside of environmental damage.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#348

Post by FireBeyond »

pbreit wrote: post #331
FireBeyond wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How on earth is a reasonable comparison Company A, whose _most expensive_ car _tops out_ at about $140K, and Company B, whose _least expensive_ car _starts_ at $335K. These are not remotely comparable companies, regardless of how much "owner love" each may have.

Ferraris start at $215k vs Roadster at $250k. I don't think the comp is as bad as you suggest. More appropriate than GM/Ford.

I stand corrected, I assumed that their lineup was sorted by pricing. The Portofino does start from there.

The Roadster has been discontinued for seven years. What it sold for then, as a fundraising vehicle (literally and figuratively), or what it sells for now as a collector item, used, is still a problematic comparison.

I'd probably be thinking more Lincoln / Cadillac when I was looking for a comparison for a US higher end manufacturer.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#349

Post by njarboe »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #347
LastZactionHero wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If commercials tell me anything about what car buyers value, there are so many other apsects John Q Public would appreciate! John likes fast cars. And oh boy my Nissan Leaf is fun to drive! Mountain driving feels like floating silently into the air. Instant torque, no gear shifting. John may also appreciate the extra leg room, as even a compact car gains a lot of room without a gas engine. John also likes saving mone…

> Less brake wear (I think?) from regeneration. On the Model 3, if you enable Hold mode, then it's possible to drive without EVER using the brakes outside of emergency situations. The rotors and pads will theoretically last forever outside of environmental damage.

While I like the idea of Hold mode, not regularly using the brake will cause the breaking reflex action to fade with time. You really want to have a good "slam the breaks" reflex if you drive a car On the other hand, maybe Tesla feels their automatic systems will break better than humans and this is not really a problem to worry about.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#350

Post by jmpman »

lamp_book wrote: post #346
jppope wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not optimism, it's arithmetic: Tesla is stealing units from the other car companies. The other car companies require those unit sales to keep the prices the where they are otherwise they have to raise prices (same goes for insurance). Sure maybe for the next 2-5 years people will do business as normal but are you really going to buy a Corolla for $30K when you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $30K? That is what will…

A new Model 3 is 36k, a new Corolla is 19.6k MSRP. Realistically you can get the Toyota for less than half the price of the Tesla. I am not convinced that gap can be closed in 5 years, much less 2.

Corolla gets 32mpg. Assume 200,000 miles over the life of the corolla, that’s 6250 gallons of fuel. $2.79/gallon where I live for $17437 of fuel over the life of the corolla. $19600+17437=$37k

The Tesla requires 50,000 kWh to drive 200,000 miles. At $0.08/kWh (what I’m paying), that’s just $4000 in electricity. $36k + $4k = $40k

That’s surprisingly close for a Tesla Model 3 versus a Corolla.

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