Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#61

Post by sremani » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:38 PM UTC

sriram_sun wrote: post #25

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Would you invest in Taxi cab companies or App based car rides?

Given the Quarterly losses of App based car rides, there is no cut and dry answer to this. May be this is a right time to buy a Cab company.

Because sooner or later - Uber and Lyft want to turn profitable, then there is a margin in certain markets where Taxis will not only be competitive but probably cheaper.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#62

Post by oliverx0 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:38 PM UTC

jppope wrote: post #55

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Gotcha, I can see that analogy making sense.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#63

Post by tdhz77 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:38 PM UTC

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Car companies have years of office politics that impact their ability to see the future. I think this has clouded their judgment. People are rooting for Tesla. The gas industry has propped up the short sellers and now the ones that have the money are the ones that believe climate change is real and that Tesla is apart of the solution. New technology in batteries, automation, AI, etc is driving Tesla not sales of the car. That’s because Tesla is a tech company not a car company. How much data have they collected for their autonomous driving?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#64

Post by woofcat » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:38 PM UTC

kemitche wrote: post #39

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now.

This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage.

However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain its advantage and market valuation?

Should the VW group, Toyota, or the Renault–Nissan–Mitsubishi Alliance decide to go all in on EV's will they be able to produce something akin to the iPhone to Tesla's BlackBerry?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#65

Post by Alex3917 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:38 PM UTC

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

> You may think it’s the future, but to justify such a valuation over all other car companies which have been operating for years

Operating for years is a cost, not a benefit. TSLA can hire all their most experienced engineers, without the cost of paying pension benefits to their former employees. It's the same playbook that JetBlue used to beat the existing airlines, by poaching pilots from other airlines without paying for their training or funding their legacy cost structure.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#66

Post by chasd00 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:39 PM UTC

martythemaniak wrote: post #5

For a while TSLA had an absurd amount of short positions against it, IIRC something like an order of magnitude more than other companies. Perhaps we are seeing a short squeeze? I'd love to see data (and interpretation) on how this has changed.

my friends and I were talking about all the shorts on Tesla back when it was really in full swing. My opinion was there's easier ways to make money than betting Elon Musk is going to fail.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#67

Post by typon » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:39 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issues. Other than that, its a joy to drive :)

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#68

Post by RandallBrown » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:39 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #38

taf2 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so i have an x and when it rains we do sometimes get some water into the back seat when raising the trunk... but to keep this in perspective... the car is like an iphone compared to your flip phone. 2007 was a long time ago so maybe people forget just how impactful that phone was when people first tried it out. That is the exact same experience I have had when first owning and S and now an X. A minor issue like water…

I'll weigh in on the curmudgeon side. The knobs in my car were perfect from the day I bought it because they were optimized by engineers over decades. If there was ever a UI issue, it was corrected before I was born. Because the controls are physical I can operate them by touch and habit while focusing on the road. Years of driving have resulted in mental circuits that automatically detect stop signs and manage lane-…

Lots of things have changed in cars since you born and their interfaces have hardly been perfected.

Namely things to do with phones like navigation, music, or phone calls. Not to mention things like improved climate control or safety (like the sentry system.)

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#69

Post by JKCalhoun » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:39 PM UTC

aj7 wrote: post #34

The correction will be precipitous. There is no reason to believe that even at the 1M vehicle level, they can be so profitable, when engaged with direct competition with other experienced producers, to justify such a market capitalization. The same cost issues will affect all companies, and I believe some Tesla technical advantages will erode.

Agree. Their customers are those who are making bank on the bull market run we've been riding. If the market should fall, Tesla will fall hardest.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#70

Post by bentcorner » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 4:40 PM UTC

stetrain wrote: post #18

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I agree that basic build quality is probably worse than a similarly priced BMW, Audi, etc. I haven't had any quality issues with mine but I know if I started measuring panel gaps it won't measure up to others in the price range. Noise insulation at highway speeds, door closing sounds, etc. don't quite measure up with the price either. Mostly I prefer the simplicity of the vehicle and drivetrain. Alternatives from oth…

> The biggest change I would make to the Model 3 design is ditching the frameless windows and using normal door frames which are less complex (no need for the window to move each time you open a door) and easier to seal up.

It'd be interesting to understand why the window needs to move down to open the door. I had a 90's acura integra that also had frameless windows, and the door seal was engineered such that it flexed enough to allow you to open/close the door with the window all the way up, but (as far as I can remember) road noise and weather sealing wasn't a problem.